Heerenveen vs Excelsior: the hosts rate stronger overall and should enjoy longer spells in the final third, but Excelsior’s direct transitions keep a live threat. Expect a fairly open rhythm with chances at both ends, leaning modestly toward the home side. Core angles: home-sided outcomes and mainstream totals (2.5–3.5) where price and game state align best.
Heerenveen beat Excelsior 2–1 at home. At half-time it was 0–1.
In possession, the hosts ran the game with 66% of the ball. For accuracy, the hosts completed 85% of their passes. On the balance of chances, the hosts held the expected-goals edge, 2.12 to 0.85. In attack, the hosts carried the greater threat — 19 shots to 9, 4 on target. From set pieces, the hosts won the corner count, 7 to 3. For discipline, the referee produced 4 yellow cards.
Model audit for this match: of 7 graded markets, 6 landed and 1 missed, for a net +1.50 units (Brier 0.145).
| Market | Odds | Closed | AI | Result | P/L · 1u | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home Win | 1.70 | — | 54% | Cashed | +0.70 | Cashed |
| Over 2.5 | 1.57 | — | 61% | Cashed | +0.57 | Cashed |
| BTTS Yes | 1.60 | — | 58% | Cashed | +0.60 | Cashed |
| AH Home 0 | 1.29 | — | 54% | Cashed | +0.29 | Cashed |
| Double Chance 1X | 1.22 | — | 77% | Cashed | +0.22 | Cashed |
| Over 3.5 | 2.40 | — | 43% | Lost | −1.00 | Miss |
| Home Team Total Over 0.5 | 1.12 | — | 84% | Cashed | +0.12 | Cashed |
| Total · 7 markets @ 1u each | — | — | — | 6 W · 1 L | +1.50u | +21% ROI |
