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Home Portugal Primeira Liga Arouca — Tondela

Predictions Arouca vs Tondela May 16, 2026 — Predictions and Probabilities

Portugal   /   Primeira Liga Value pick inside
Arouca
Arouca
Home · last 5 W L D W W
Kick-off
Sat 16 May · 17:00
3:1
Full-time
Tondela
Tondela
L D W W L Away · last 5
Estádio Municipal de Arouca · Arouca Referee A. Nobre
Home Win · ARO
40%
Best 3.30
Draw
25%
Best 3.66
Away Win · TON
35%
Best 2.19
Value pick
Under 2.5
@ 2.00
Fair odds
1.79
book 2.00 · +11.8% vs market
Bookmakers polled
4
distinct bookmakers
Pick confidence
High
p 56% · EV +11.8%

Match predictions

Simple model predictions for the main markets. Advanced model details are available below.

Most likely outcomes show what the model expects to happen. A betting pick also considers bookmaker prices, so it can differ from the most likely outcome.

Estimated probability — model's view. Implied probability — back-solved from the best book price. Bet quality: High Medium Low
FT Results 3 markets
Away Win
Probability 34.9%
Odds 2.24
Show model details
Implied probability 44.6%
Bet quality Low
Home Win Best in group
Probability 39.7%
Odds 3.22
Show model details
Implied probability 31.1%
Bet quality Medium
Draw
Probability 25.4%
Odds 3.66
Show model details
Implied probability 27.3%
Bet quality Low
Totals 8 markets
Under 2.5 Value pick
Probability 55.9%
Odds 2.00
Show model details
Implied probability 50%
Bet quality High
Over 2.5
Probability 44.1%
Odds 1.88
Show model details
Implied probability 53.2%
Bet quality Low
Under 1.5
Probability 31.2%
Odds 3.75
Show model details
Implied probability 26.7%
Bet quality Medium
Under 0.5
Probability 9.9%
Odds 11.50
Show model details
Implied probability 8.7%
Bet quality Low
Under 3.5
Probability 76.4%
Odds 1.33
Show model details
Implied probability 75.2%
Bet quality Low
Over 0.5 Best in group
Probability 90.1%
Odds 1.05
Show model details
Implied probability 95.2%
Bet quality Low
Over 1.5
Probability 68.8%
Odds 1.25
Show model details
Implied probability 80%
Bet quality Low
Over 3.5
Probability 23.6%
Odds 3.25
Show model details
Implied probability 30.8%
Bet quality Low
BTTS 2 markets
BTTS No Value pick
Probability 51.5%
Odds 2.10
Show model details
Implied probability 47.6%
Bet quality Medium
BTTS Yes
Probability 48.5%
Odds 1.70
Show model details
Implied probability 58.8%
Bet quality Low
Asian Handicap 2 markets
AH Home 0 Best in group
Probability 39.7%
Odds 2.36
Show model details
Implied probability 42.4%
Bet quality Low
AH Away 0
Probability 34.9%
Odds 1.65
Show model details
Implied probability 60.6%
Bet quality Low
Other Markets 2 markets
Double Chance 1X Top pick
Probability 65.1%
Odds 1.70
Show model details
Implied probability 58.8%
Bet quality High
Double Chance X2
Probability 60.3%
Odds 1.38
Show model details
Implied probability 72.5%
Bet quality Medium

Predictions are model estimates based on data, not guaranteed outcomes. 18+ — please play responsibly.

Value pick of the night · Under 2.5
ARO – TON @ 2.00
+11.8%
Edge
Forecast →