Match Arouca vs Tondela May 16, 2026 — Result and Stats on Prognosist

Post-match · 90 sec read

AI picks Under 2.5 at 2.00 — +11.8% better than the market.

Arouca holds a clear quality edge and benefits from a solid home defensive setup, which should help contain Tondela's moderate attack. Both sides show similar recent form, but Arouca's home momentum and tactical discipline could tilt the balance. Expect a controlled pace with limited goal-scoring chances, as the defensive solidity on both ends suggests a tight contest.

Home defensive resilience vs away attack
Comparable recent form but home advantage
Likely low-scoring, measured tempo

P Recap generated by AI · 6 markets graded

Pick of the night · settled · Under 2.5

Under 2.5 @ 2.00 ✗ Lost

AI 56% Implied 50% −1.00u

−100%

ROI on stake

⛀ Lineups

ARO 4-2-3-1 · TON 4-2-3-1

ARO · 4-2-3-1 4-2-3-1 · TON

17 Barbero

Subs used · ARO

59'

Monteiro ↑ ·

Fayed ↓

63'

Nandin ↑ ·

Barbero ↓

63'

Lee ↑ ·

Djouahra ↓

79'

Santos ↑ ·

Gozalbez ↓

79'

Flores ↑ ·

Fukui ↓

Subs used · TON

61'

Tavares ↑ ·

Cicero ↓

73'

Kimpioka ↑ ·

Aiko ↓

73'

Hodge ↑ ·

Felix ↓

81'

van der Heide ↑ ·

Conceicao ↓

82'

Afonso ↑ ·

Maranhao ↓

📊 Statistics

ARO 3 – 1 TON

53%

Possession (%)

47%

1.53

Expected Goals (xG) expected goals

0.51

Total Shots

Shots on Target

Shots off Target

Shots Inside Box

Corner Kicks

Offsides

Fouls

81%

Pass Accuracy (%)

81%

Yellow Cards

Goalkeeper Saves

⏱ Match events

18 · 3 – 1

T. Fukui

1–0

⚽

20'

O. Fayed

Yellow Card

▮

39'

41'

▮

Cicero

Yellow Card

B. Kuipers

Yellow Card

▮

41'

Half-time · 1 – 0

D. Monteiro ↓ · O. Fayed ↑

Substitution 1

⇄

59'

61'

⇄

H. Tavares ↓ · Cicero ↑

Substitution 1

D. Nandin ↓ · I. Barbero ↑

Substitution 2

⇄

63'

H. Lee ↓ · N. Djouahra ↑

Substitution 3

⇄

63'

65'

⚽

Rony Lopes

Assist · M. Aiko · 1–1

73'

⇄

B. Kimpioka ↓ · M. Aiko ↑

Substitution 2

73'

⇄

J. Hodge ↓ · H. Felix ↑

Substitution 3

A. Trezza

Assist · Tiago Esgaio · 2–1

⚽

77'

Pedro Santos ↓ · P. Gozalbez ↑

Substitution 4

⇄

79'

M. Flores ↓ · T. Fukui ↑

Substitution 5

⇄

79'

H. Lee

Yellow Card

▮

81'

⇄

A. van der Heide ↓ · R. Conceicao ↑

Substitution 4

82'

⇄

J. Afonso ↓ · Pedro Maranhao ↑

Substitution 5

H. Lee

Assist · D. Nandin · 3–1

⚽

85'

Full-time · 3 – 1

Match recap

Arouca beat Tondela 3–1 at home. At half-time it was 1–0.

On the balance of chances, the hosts held the expected-goals edge, 1.53 to 0.51. In attack, the hosts carried the greater threat — 16 shots to 11, 4 on target. For discipline, the referee produced 4 yellow cards.

On the scoresheet: T. Fukui (20'), Rony Lopes (65'), A. Trezza (77'), H. Lee (85').

Model audit for this match: of 17 graded markets, 8 landed and 9 missed, for a net -0.59 units (Brier 0.239).

⚖ Bet recap · markets settled

17 · 8 W · 9 L

Market	Odds	Closed	AI	Result	P/L · 1u
Under 2.5	2.00	2.00	56%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Double Chance 1X	1.70	1.69	65%	Cashed	+0.70	Cashed
BTTS No	2.10	2.11	51%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
AH Home 0	2.36	2.40	40%	Cashed	+1.36	Cashed
Over 2.5	1.88	1.85	44%	Cashed	+0.88	Cashed
BTTS Yes	1.70	1.66	49%	Cashed	+0.70	Cashed
Away Win	2.24	2.12	35%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
AH Away 0	1.65	1.58	35%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Home Win	3.22	3.30	40%	Cashed	+2.22	Cashed
Under 1.5	3.75	3.75	31%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Double Chance X2	1.38	1.32	60%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Under 0.5	11.50	10.99	10%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Under 3.5	1.33	1.36	76%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Over 0.5	1.05	1.04	90%	Cashed	+0.05	Cashed
Draw	3.66	3.50	25%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Over 1.5	1.25	1.25	69%	Cashed	+0.25	Cashed
Over 3.5	3.25	3.00	24%	Cashed	+2.25	Cashed
Total · 17 markets @ 1u each	—	—	—	8 W · 9 L	−0.59u	−3% ROI