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Home Portugal Primeira Liga Nacional — Guimaraes

Predictions Nacional vs Guimaraes May 16, 2026 — Predictions and Probabilities

Nacional
Nacional
Home · last 5 W W L L W
Kick-off
Sat 16 May · 17:00
2:0
Full-time
Guimaraes
Guimaraes
W W L L L Away · last 5
Referee R. Baixinho
Home Win · NAC
39%
Best 2.22
Draw
26%
Best 3.34
Away Win · GUI
35%
Best 3.54
Value pick
Double Chance X2
@ 1.81
Fair odds
1.64
book 1.81 · +10.6% vs market
Bookmakers polled
4
distinct bookmakers
Pick confidence
High
p 61% · EV +10.6%

Match predictions

Simple model predictions for the main markets. Advanced model details are available below.

Most likely outcomes show what the model expects to happen. A betting pick also considers bookmaker prices, so it can differ from the most likely outcome.

Estimated probability — model's view. Implied probability — back-solved from the best book price. Bet quality: High Medium Low
FT Results 3 markets
Home Win Best in group
Probability 38.9%
Odds 2.07
Show model details
Implied probability 48.3%
Bet quality Low
Away Win
Probability 35.4%
Odds 3.87
Show model details
Implied probability 25.8%
Bet quality Medium
Draw
Probability 25.7%
Odds 3.50
Show model details
Implied probability 28.6%
Bet quality Low
Totals 8 markets
Under 2.5 Value pick
Probability 52.1%
Odds 2.09
Show model details
Implied probability 47.9%
Bet quality Medium
Over 2.5
Probability 48%
Odds 1.81
Show model details
Implied probability 55.3%
Bet quality Low
Over 3.5
Probability 27.4%
Odds 2.75
Show model details
Implied probability 36.4%
Bet quality Low
Under 1.5
Probability 27.5%
Odds 4.00
Show model details
Implied probability 25%
Bet quality Medium
Under 3.5
Probability 72.6%
Odds 1.40
Show model details
Implied probability 71.4%
Bet quality Low
Under 0.5
Probability 8.4%
Odds 13.00
Show model details
Implied probability 7.7%
Bet quality Low
Over 0.5 Best in group
Probability 91.6%
Odds 1.04
Show model details
Implied probability 96.2%
Bet quality Low
Over 1.5
Probability 72.5%
Odds 1.22
Show model details
Implied probability 82%
Bet quality Low
BTTS 2 markets
BTTS No
Probability 48%
Odds 2.20
Show model details
Implied probability 45.5%
Bet quality Medium
BTTS Yes Best in group
Probability 52%
Odds 1.62
Show model details
Implied probability 61.7%
Bet quality Low
Asian Handicap 2 markets
AH Away 0
Probability 35.4%
Odds 2.77
Show model details
Implied probability 36.1%
Bet quality Low
AH Home 0 Best in group
Probability 38.9%
Odds 1.49
Show model details
Implied probability 67.1%
Bet quality Low
Other Markets 2 markets
Double Chance X2
Probability 61.1%
Odds 1.81
Show model details
Implied probability 55.3%
Bet quality High
Double Chance 1X Top pick
Probability 64.6%
Odds 1.30
Show model details
Implied probability 76.9%
Bet quality Medium

Predictions are model estimates based on data, not guaranteed outcomes. 18+ — please play responsibly.