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Home › Portugal › Primeira Liga › Santa Clara — Nacional

Santa Clara vs Nacional 2:0: Match Review & Stats

Portugal   /   Primeira Liga Value pick inside
Santa Clara
Santa Clara
Home · last 5 D W D W L
Kick-off
Mon 11 May · 19:15
2:0
Full-time
Nacional
Nacional
W W L L W Away · last 5
Estádio de São Miguel · Ponta Delgada Referee H. Carvalho
Miss
Double Chance X2
Double Chance X2
AI 65% · book 1.70 ✗
Hit
BTTS No
BTTS No
AI 54% · book 2.00 ✓
Hit
Under 2.5
Under 2.5
AI 60% · book 1.78 ✓
Total goals
2
2 · 0
xG (open play)
1.37 – 0.61
Δ +0.76
Possession
41% – 59%
AI accuracy
8 / 17
picks cashed

Model verdict

Post-match · 90 sec read

AI picks Double Chance X2 at 1.70 — +10.8% better than the market.

Santa Clara faces a tough challenge against Nacional at Estádio de São Miguel. Despite Santa Clara's home momentum and a compact defensive block, Nacional's superior overall quality and sharper offensive edge suggest they can exploit gaps. Recent form favors Nacional slightly, hinting at a competitive but tight encounter.

  • Home side's defensive resilience vs away's attacking threat
  • Close recent form but Nacional's quality edge
  • Moderate pace expected with under 2.5 goals likely

P Recap generated by AI · 6 markets graded
Pick of the night · settled · Double Chance X2
Double Chance X2 @ 1.70 ✗ Lost
AI 65% Implied 59% −1.00u
−100%
ROI on stake

Lineups

SAN 4-3-3 · NAC 4-2-3-1
SAN · 4-3-3 4-2-3-1 · NAC 50 Afonso 2 Calila 4 Pacheco ⚽ 23 Lima 64 Victor 65 Tavares 77 Klismahn 78 Andrey 49 Torrao 39 Paciência 10 Silva 1 Kaique 2 Aurélio 34 Santos 33 Gonçalves 5 Gomes 6 Dias 22 Soares 7 Quembo 10 Júnior 11 Bóia 9 Ramírez
Subs used · SAN
24' Manoel ↑ · Paciencia ↓
64' Darlan ↑ · Klismahn ↓
64' Isaac ↑ · Andrey ↓
82' Lopes ↑ · Torrao ↓
82' Fernando ↑ · Silva ↓
Subs used · NAC
46' Labidi ↑ · Dias ↓
46' Veron ↑ · Witi ↓
62' Nunez ↑ · Aurelio ↓
82' Joao ↑ · Junior ↓
90+4' Watts ↑ · Soares ↓

Statistics

SAN 2 – 0 NAC
41%
Possession (%)
59%
1.37
Expected Goals (xG) expected goals
0.61
12
Total Shots
12
2
Shots on Target
1
7
Shots off Target
8
8
Shots Inside Box
7
4
Corner Kicks
6
1
Offsides
0
10
Fouls
16
75%
Pass Accuracy (%)
81%
1
Yellow Cards
2
1
Goalkeeper Saves
0

Match events

15 · 2 – 0
Elias Manoel ↓ · G. Paciencia ↑
Substitution 1
⇄
24'
P. Pacheco
Assist · Andrey · 1–0
⚽
27'
29'
▮
Paulinho Boia
Yellow Card
Half-time · 1 – 0
46'
⇄
C. Labidi ↓ · Matheus Dias ↑
Substitution 1
46'
⇄
Gabriel Veron ↓ · Witi ↑
Substitution 2
60'
▮
J. Aurelio
Yellow Card
62'
⇄
A. Nunez ↓ · J. Aurelio ↑
Substitution 3
Darlan ↓ · Gustavo Klismahn ↑
Substitution 2
⇄
64'
Isaac ↓ · Andrey ↑
Substitution 3
⇄
64'
Darlan
Yellow Card
▮
80'
Vinicius Lopes ↓ · Welinton Torrao ↑
Substitution 4
⇄
82'
Fernando ↓ · Gabriel Silva ↑
Substitution 5
⇄
82'
82'
⇄
L. Joao ↓ · Daniel Junior ↑
Substitution 4
Elias Manoel
Assist · Fernando · 2–0
⚽
90+2'
90+4'
⇄
Watts ↓ · F. Soares ↑
Substitution 5
Full-time · 2 – 0

Match recap

Santa Clara beat Nacional 2–0 at home. At half-time it was 1–0.

In possession, the visitors ran the game with 59% of the ball. On the balance of chances, the hosts held the expected-goals edge, 1.37 to 0.61. For discipline, the referee produced 3 yellow cards.

On the scoresheet: P. Pacheco (27'), Elias Manoel (90+2').

Model audit for this match: of 17 graded markets, 8 landed and 9 missed, for a net -4.23 units (Brier 0.168).

Bet recap · markets settled

17 · 8 W · 9 L
Market Odds Closed AI Result P/L · 1u
Double Chance X2 1.70 1.54 65% Lost −1.00 Miss
BTTS No 2.00 1.91 54% Cashed +1.00 Cashed
Under 2.5 1.78 1.70 60% Cashed +0.78 Cashed
AH Away 0 2.36 2.18 38% Lost −1.00 Miss
Over 2.5 2.13 2.15 40% Lost −1.00 Miss
BTTS Yes 1.80 1.80 46% Lost −1.00 Miss
Home Win 2.34 2.40 35% Cashed +1.34 Cashed
AH Home 0 1.65 1.70 35% Cashed +0.65 Cashed
Away Win 3.40 3.05 38% Lost −1.00 Miss
Under 1.5 3.25 3.10 34% Lost −1.00 Miss
Double Chance 1X 1.35 1.36 63% Cashed +0.35 Cashed
Under 0.5 9.00 8.47 11% Lost −1.00 Miss
Under 3.5 1.25 1.23 80% Cashed +0.25 Cashed
Over 0.5 1.07 1.04 89% Cashed +0.07 Cashed
Draw 3.30 3.09 28% Lost −1.00 Miss
Over 1.5 1.33 1.33 66% Cashed +0.33 Cashed
Over 3.5 3.80 3.75 20% Lost −1.00 Miss
Total · 17 markets @ 1u each — — — 8 W · 9 L −4.23u −25% ROI
Value pick of the night · Double Chance X2
SAN – NAC @ 1.70
+10.8%
Edge
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