Match Rio Ave vs Sporting CP May 11, 2026 — Result and Stats on Prognosist

Post-match · 90 sec read

Sporting CP arrives with a clear quality edge and better recent form, suggesting they hold the upper hand. Rio Ave’s defensive solidity might keep things tight, but Sporting’s attacking prowess is likely to test their compact block repeatedly. The home side’s slight home momentum contrasts with Sporting’s sharper offensive threat, hinting at a contest where the visitors press for control.

Sporting’s superior quality and form advantage
Rio Ave’s defensive resilience at home
Moderate pace expected, favoring tactical battles

P Recap generated by AI · 6 markets graded

⛀ Lineups

RIO 4-4-2 · SPO 4-2-3-1

RIO · 4-4-2 4-2-3-1 · SPO

11 Blesa

Subs used · RIO

55'

Brabec ↑ ·

Monteiro ↓

64'

Tome ↑ ·

Vrousai ↓

72'

Richards ↑ ·

Abbey ↓

73'

Papakanellos ↑ ·

Spikic ↓

73'

Ntoi ↑ ·

Bezerra ↓

Subs used · SPO

64'

Catamo ↑ ·

Guilherme ↓

65'

Quenda ↑ ·

Morita ↓

82'

Felicissimo ↑ ·

Pote ↓

82'

Kochorashvili ↑ ·

Braganca ↓

90+1'

Nel ↑ ·

Suarez ↓

📊 Statistics

RIO 1 – 4 SPO

36%

Possession (%)

64%

0.70

Expected Goals (xG) expected goals

1.58

Total Shots

Shots on Target

Shots off Target

Shots Inside Box

Corner Kicks

Fouls

82%

Pass Accuracy (%)

91%

Yellow Cards

Goalkeeper Saves

⏱ Match events

24 · 1 – 4

Diogo Bezerra

Assist · C. Miszta · 1–0

⚽

12'

Diogo Bezerra

Yellow Card

▮

13'

32'

▮

O. Diomande

Yellow Card

32'

▮

L. Suarez

Yellow Card

F. Petrasso

Yellow Card

▮

34'

35'

⚽

L. Suarez (P)

Penalty · 1–1

42'

⚽

Gustavo Mancha

Own goal · 1–2

Half-time · 1 – 2

F. Petrasso

Yellow Card

▮

52'

F. Petrasso

Red Card

▮

52'

J. Brabec ↓ · T. Monteiro ↑

Substitution 1

⇄

55'

64'

⇄

G. Catamo ↓ · Luis Guilherme ↑

Substitution 1

J. Tome ↓ · M. Vrousai ↑

Substitution 2

⇄

64'

65'

⇄

G. Quenda ↓ · H. Morita ↑

Substitution 2

66'

⚽

Trincao

Assist · O. Diomande · 1–3

O. Richards ↓ · N. Abbey ↑

Substitution 3

⇄

72'

A. Papakanellos ↓ · D. Spikic ↑

Substitution 4

⇄

73'

A. Ntoi ↓ · Diogo Bezerra ↑

Substitution 5

⇄

73'

82'

⇄

E. Felicissimo ↓ · Pote ↑

Substitution 3

82'

⇄

G. Kochorashvili ↓ · D. Braganca ↑

Substitution 4

Ryan Guilherme

Yellow Card

▮

83'

Ryan Guilherme

Yellow Card

▮

85'

Ryan Guilherme

Red Card

▮

85'

90'

⚽

G. Quenda

Assist · M. Araujo · 1–4

90+1'

⇄

R. Nel ↓ · L. Suarez ↑

Substitution 5

Full-time · 1 – 4

Match recap

Sporting CP won 4–1 away at Rio Ave. At half-time it was 1–2.

In possession, the visitors ran the game with 64% of the ball. For accuracy, the visitors completed 91% of their passes. On the balance of chances, the visitors held the expected-goals edge, 1.58 to 0.70. In attack, the visitors carried the greater threat — 16 shots to 12, 5 on target. In front of goal, the visitors were clinical, scoring 4 from 1.58 expected goals. For discipline, the referee produced 7 yellow cards.

On the scoresheet: Diogo Bezerra (12'), L. Suarez (35'), Gustavo Mancha (42'), Trincao (66'), G. Quenda (90'). F. Petrasso was sent off in the 52' minute. Ryan Guilherme was sent off in the 85' minute.

Model audit for this match: of 15 graded markets, 7 landed and 8 missed, for a net -5.29 units (Brier 0.096).

⚖ Bet recap · markets settled

15 · 7 W · 8 L

Market	Odds	Closed	AI	Result	P/L · 1u
BTTS Yes	1.80	1.93	55%	Cashed	+0.80	Cashed
Under 3.5	1.83	1.76	54%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Over 3.5	2.06	2.05	46%	Cashed	+1.06	Cashed
BTTS No	2.05	1.80	45%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Draw	7.27	7.25	16%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Double Chance X2	1.06	1.03	94%	Cashed	+0.06	Cashed
Away Win	1.25	1.18	78%	Cashed	+0.25	Cashed
Under 2.5	2.88	2.88	33%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Over 2.5	1.40	1.38	67%	Cashed	+0.40	Cashed
AH Away 0	1.03	1.02	78%	Cashed	+0.03	Cashed
Double Chance 1X	4.46	4.55	22%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Over 1.5	1.11	1.10	85%	Cashed	+0.11	Cashed
Under 1.5	6.50	6.49	15%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Home Win	12.30	12.99	6%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
AH Home 0	8.00	9.01	6%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Total · 15 markets @ 1u each	—	—	—	7 W · 8 L	−5.29u	−35% ROI