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Home › Portugal › Primeira Liga › Rio Ave — Sporting CP

Rio Ave vs Sporting CP 1:4: Match Review & Stats

Portugal   /   Primeira Liga Value pick inside
Rio Ave
Rio Ave
Home · last 5 D L D L D
Kick-off
Mon 11 May · 19:15
1:4
Full-time
Sporting CP
Sporting CP
D D W W W Away · last 5
Estádio dos Arcos · Condi Town Referee J. Goncalves
Hit
BTTS Yes
BTTS Yes
AI 55% · book 1.80 ✓
Miss
Under 3.5
Under 3.5
AI 54% · book 1.83 ✗
Hit
Over 3.5
Over 3.5
AI 46% · book 2.06 ✓
Total goals
5
1 · 4
xG (open play)
0.70 – 1.58
Δ −0.88
Possession
36% – 64%
AI accuracy
7 / 15
picks cashed

Model verdict

Post-match · 90 sec read

AI picks Double Chance 1X at 4.46 — +0.1% better than the market.

Sporting CP arrives with a clear quality edge and better recent form, suggesting they hold the upper hand. Rio Ave’s defensive solidity might keep things tight, but Sporting’s attacking prowess is likely to test their compact block repeatedly. The home side’s slight home momentum contrasts with Sporting’s sharper offensive threat, hinting at a contest where the visitors press for control.

  • Sporting’s superior quality and form advantage
  • Rio Ave’s defensive resilience at home
  • Moderate pace expected, favoring tactical battles

P Recap generated by AI · 6 markets graded
Pick of the night · settled · Double Chance 1X
Double Chance 1X @ 4.46 ✗ Lost
AI 22% Implied 22% −1.00u
−100%
ROI on stake

Lineups

RIO 4-4-2 · SPO 4-2-3-1
RIO · 4-4-2 4-2-3-1 · SPO 1 Miszta 17 Vrousai 23 Petrasso 39 Mancha 6 Abbey 18 Špikić 44 Nikitscher 8 Guilherme 7 Bezerra 9 Monteiro 11 Blesa 1 Silva 72 Quaresma 26 Diomande 25 Inácio 20 Araújo 5 Morita 23 Bragança 31 Guilherme 17 Trincão ⚽ 8 Gonçalves 97 Suárez ⚽
Subs used · RIO
55' Brabec ↑ · Monteiro ↓
64' Tome ↑ · Vrousai ↓
72' Richards ↑ · Abbey ↓
73' Papakanellos ↑ · Spikic ↓
73' Ntoi ↑ · Bezerra ↓
Subs used · SPO
64' Catamo ↑ · Guilherme ↓
65' Quenda ↑ · Morita ↓
82' Felicissimo ↑ · Pote ↓
82' Kochorashvili ↑ · Braganca ↓
90+1' Nel ↑ · Suarez ↓

Statistics

RIO 1 – 4 SPO
36%
Possession (%)
64%
0.70
Expected Goals (xG) expected goals
1.58
12
Total Shots
16
3
Shots on Target
5
6
Shots off Target
6
9
Shots Inside Box
11
5
Corner Kicks
6
9
Fouls
7
82%
Pass Accuracy (%)
91%
5
Yellow Cards
2
2
Goalkeeper Saves
2

Match events

24 · 1 – 4
Diogo Bezerra
Assist · C. Miszta · 1–0
⚽
12'
Diogo Bezerra
Yellow Card
▮
13'
32'
▮
O. Diomande
Yellow Card
32'
▮
L. Suarez
Yellow Card
F. Petrasso
Yellow Card
▮
34'
35'
⚽
L. Suarez (P)
Penalty · 1–1
42'
⚽
Gustavo Mancha
Own goal · 1–2
Half-time · 1 – 2
F. Petrasso
Yellow Card
▮
52'
F. Petrasso
Red Card
▮
52'
J. Brabec ↓ · T. Monteiro ↑
Substitution 1
⇄
55'
64'
⇄
G. Catamo ↓ · Luis Guilherme ↑
Substitution 1
J. Tome ↓ · M. Vrousai ↑
Substitution 2
⇄
64'
65'
⇄
G. Quenda ↓ · H. Morita ↑
Substitution 2
66'
⚽
Trincao
Assist · O. Diomande · 1–3
O. Richards ↓ · N. Abbey ↑
Substitution 3
⇄
72'
A. Papakanellos ↓ · D. Spikic ↑
Substitution 4
⇄
73'
A. Ntoi ↓ · Diogo Bezerra ↑
Substitution 5
⇄
73'
82'
⇄
E. Felicissimo ↓ · Pote ↑
Substitution 3
82'
⇄
G. Kochorashvili ↓ · D. Braganca ↑
Substitution 4
Ryan Guilherme
Yellow Card
▮
83'
Ryan Guilherme
Yellow Card
▮
85'
Ryan Guilherme
Red Card
▮
85'
90'
⚽
G. Quenda
Assist · M. Araujo · 1–4
90+1'
⇄
R. Nel ↓ · L. Suarez ↑
Substitution 5
Full-time · 1 – 4

Match recap

Sporting CP won 4–1 away at Rio Ave. At half-time it was 1–2.

In possession, the visitors ran the game with 64% of the ball. For accuracy, the visitors completed 91% of their passes. On the balance of chances, the visitors held the expected-goals edge, 1.58 to 0.70. In attack, the visitors carried the greater threat — 16 shots to 12, 5 on target. In front of goal, the visitors were clinical, scoring 4 from 1.58 expected goals. For discipline, the referee produced 7 yellow cards.

On the scoresheet: Diogo Bezerra (12'), L. Suarez (35'), Gustavo Mancha (42'), Trincao (66'), G. Quenda (90'). F. Petrasso was sent off in the 52' minute. Ryan Guilherme was sent off in the 85' minute.

Model audit for this match: of 15 graded markets, 7 landed and 8 missed, for a net -5.29 units (Brier 0.096).

Bet recap · markets settled

15 · 7 W · 8 L
Market Odds Closed AI Result P/L · 1u
BTTS Yes 1.80 1.93 55% Cashed +0.80 Cashed
Under 3.5 1.83 1.76 54% Lost −1.00 Miss
Over 3.5 2.06 2.05 46% Cashed +1.06 Cashed
BTTS No 2.05 1.80 45% Lost −1.00 Miss
Draw 7.27 7.25 16% Lost −1.00 Miss
Double Chance X2 1.06 1.03 94% Cashed +0.06 Cashed
Away Win 1.25 1.18 78% Cashed +0.25 Cashed
Under 2.5 2.88 2.88 33% Lost −1.00 Miss
Over 2.5 1.40 1.38 67% Cashed +0.40 Cashed
AH Away 0 1.03 1.02 78% Cashed +0.03 Cashed
Double Chance 1X 4.46 4.55 22% Lost −1.00 Miss
Over 1.5 1.11 1.10 85% Cashed +0.11 Cashed
Under 1.5 6.50 6.49 15% Lost −1.00 Miss
Home Win 12.30 12.99 6% Lost −1.00 Miss
AH Home 0 8.00 9.01 6% Lost −1.00 Miss
Total · 15 markets @ 1u each — — — 7 W · 8 L −5.29u −35% ROI
Value pick of the night · Double Chance 1X
RIO – SPO @ 4.46
+0.1%
Edge
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