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Home Portugal Primeira Liga Guimaraes — Casa Pia

Predictions Guimaraes vs Casa Pia May 11, 2026 — Predictions and Probabilities

Portugal   /   Primeira Liga Value pick inside
Guimaraes
Guimaraes
Home · last 5 W W L L L
Kick-off
Mon 11 May · 19:15
0:1
Full-time
Casa Pia
Casa Pia
L W D D W Away · last 5
Estádio Dom Afonso Henriques · Guimarães Referee L. M. Branco Godinho
Home Win · GUI
62%
Best 1.72
Draw
23%
Best 4.14
Away Win · CAS
15%
Best 4.78
Value pick
Under 2.5
@ 1.96
Fair odds
1.76
book 1.96 · +11.1% vs market
Bookmakers polled
4
distinct bookmakers
Pick confidence
High
p 57% · EV +11.1%

Match predictions

Simple model predictions for the main markets. Advanced model details are available below.

Most likely outcomes show what the model expects to happen. A betting pick also considers bookmaker prices, so it can differ from the most likely outcome.

Estimated probability — model's view. Implied probability — back-solved from the best book price. Bet quality: High Medium Low
FT Results 3 markets
Home Win Top pick
Probability 61.8%
Odds 1.75
Show model details
Implied probability 57.1%
Bet quality High
Draw
Probability 23.1%
Odds 4.09
Show model details
Implied probability 24.5%
Bet quality Low
Away Win
Probability 15.2%
Odds 4.75
Show model details
Implied probability 21.1%
Bet quality Low
Totals 8 markets
Under 2.5 Value pick
Probability 56.7%
Odds 1.96
Show model details
Implied probability 51%
Bet quality High
Over 2.5
Probability 43.3%
Odds 1.92
Show model details
Implied probability 52.1%
Bet quality Low
Under 1.5
Probability 31.2%
Odds 3.80
Show model details
Implied probability 26.3%
Bet quality Medium
Under 3.5
Probability 76.8%
Odds 1.36
Show model details
Implied probability 73.5%
Bet quality Medium
Under 0.5
Probability 10.1%
Odds 11.70
Show model details
Implied probability 8.6%
Bet quality Low
Over 0.5 Best in group
Probability 89.9%
Odds 1.05
Show model details
Implied probability 95.2%
Bet quality Low
Over 1.5
Probability 68.8%
Odds 1.25
Show model details
Implied probability 80%
Bet quality Low
Over 3.5
Probability 23.2%
Odds 3.25
Show model details
Implied probability 30.8%
Bet quality Low
BTTS 2 markets
BTTS No Value pick
Probability 54.1%
Odds 2.00
Show model details
Implied probability 50%
Bet quality Medium
BTTS Yes
Probability 46%
Odds 1.80
Show model details
Implied probability 55.6%
Bet quality Low
Asian Handicap 2 markets
AH Home 0 Top pick
Probability 61.8%
Odds 1.30
Show model details
Implied probability 76.9%
Bet quality Medium
AH Away 0
Probability 15.2%
Odds 3.45
Show model details
Implied probability 29%
Bet quality Low
Other Markets 2 markets
Double Chance X2
Probability 38.2%
Odds 2.16
Show model details
Implied probability 46.3%
Bet quality Low
Double Chance 1X Top pick
Probability 84.9%
Odds 1.22
Show model details
Implied probability 82%
Bet quality Medium

Predictions are model estimates based on data, not guaranteed outcomes. 18+ — please play responsibly.

Value pick of the night · Under 2.5
GUI – CAS @ 1.96
+11.1%
Edge
Forecast →