Match Guimaraes vs Casa Pia May 11, 2026 — Result and Stats on Prognosist

Post-match · 90 sec read

AI picks Under 2.5 at 1.96 — +11.1% better than the market.

Guimaraes hold a clear quality edge and home momentum, backed by a solid defensive setup that challenges Casa Pia's attack. The hosts' recent form shows resilience, while Casa Pia struggles for consistency, especially away. Expect a tactical battle with Guimaraes pressing higher and controlling tempo, likely limiting scoring chances.

Home side's defensive solidity vs away's modest offense
Guimaraes' better recent form and home comfort
Moderate pace suggested by balanced goal market odds

P Recap generated by AI · 6 markets graded

Pick of the night · settled · Under 2.5

Under 2.5 @ 1.96 ✓ Cashed

AI 57% Implied 51% +0.96u

+96%

ROI on stake

⛀ Lineups

GUI 4-2-3-1 · CAS 3-4-3

GUI · 4-2-3-1 3-4-3 · CAS

11 Silva

Subs used · GUI

60'

Camara ↑ ·

Gustavo ↓

60'

Arcanjo ↑ ·

Nogueira ↓

60'

Zeega ↑ ·

Nogueira ↓

81'

Ndoye ↑ ·

Samu ↓

Subs used · CAS

46'

Osundina ↑ ·

Ofori ↓

69'

Mendes ↑ ·

Livramento ↓

74'

Conte ↑ ·

Prieto ↓

90+5'

Dafe ↑ ·

Mendes ↓

90+6'

Fonte ↑ ·

Larrazabal ↓

📊 Statistics

GUI 0 – 1 CAS

71%

Possession (%)

29%

0.94

Expected Goals (xG) expected goals

0.88

Total Shots

Shots on Target

Shots off Target

Shots Inside Box

Corner Kicks

Offsides

Fouls

84%

Pass Accuracy (%)

61%

Yellow Cards

Goalkeeper Saves

⏱ Match events

13 · 0 – 1

22'

▮

P. Rosas

Yellow Card

Half-time · 0 – 0

46'

⇄

K. Osundina ↓ · L. Ofori ↑

Substitution 1

O. Camara ↓ · Gustavo ↑

Substitution 1

⇄

60'

T. Arcanjo ↓ · M. Nogueira ↑

Substitution 2

⇄

60'

Zeega ↓ · G. Nogueira ↑

Substitution 3

⇄

60'

69'

⇄

C. Mendes ↓ · D. Livramento ↑

Substitution 2

74'

⇄

A. Conte ↓ · K. Prieto ↑

Substitution 3

R. Abascal

Yellow Card

▮

76'

Beni

Yellow Card

▮

78'

A. Ndoye ↓ · Samu ↑

Substitution 4

⇄

81'

86'

⚽

G. Larrazabal

Assist · J. Marques · 0–1

90+5'

⇄

A. Dafe ↓ · C. Mendes ↑

Substitution 4

90+6'

⇄

J. Fonte ↓ · G. Larrazabal ↑

Substitution 5

Full-time · 0 – 1

Match recap

Casa Pia won 1–0 away at Guimaraes. At half-time it was 0–0.

In possession, the hosts ran the game with 71% of the ball. For accuracy, the hosts completed 84% of their passes. In attack, the hosts carried the greater threat — 15 shots to 11, 2 on target. For discipline, the referee produced 3 yellow cards.

On the scoresheet: G. Larrazabal (86').

Model audit for this match: of 17 graded markets, 8 landed and 9 missed, for a net +3.53 units (Brier 0.308).

⚖ Bet recap · markets settled

17 · 8 W · 9 L

Market	Odds	Closed	AI	Result	P/L · 1u
Under 2.5	1.96	1.95	57%	Cashed	+0.96	Cashed
Home Win	1.75	1.70	62%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
BTTS No	2.00	1.95	54%	Cashed	+1.00	Cashed
Over 2.5	1.92	1.87	43%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
BTTS Yes	1.80	1.80	46%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Double Chance X2	2.16	2.10	38%	Cashed	+1.16	Cashed
Under 1.5	3.80	3.75	31%	Cashed	+2.80	Cashed
Under 3.5	1.36	1.33	77%	Cashed	+0.36	Cashed
Double Chance 1X	1.22	1.19	85%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
AH Home 0	1.30	1.27	62%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Under 0.5	11.70	10.99	10%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Over 0.5	1.05	1.04	90%	Cashed	+0.05	Cashed
Draw	4.09	3.91	23%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Over 1.5	1.25	1.25	69%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Over 3.5	3.25	3.12	23%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Away Win	4.75	4.74	15%	Cashed	+3.75	Cashed
AH Away 0	3.45	3.40	15%	Cashed	+2.45	Cashed
Total · 17 markets @ 1u each	—	—	—	8 W · 9 L	+3.53u	+21% ROI