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Home Portugal Primeira Liga Casa Pia — Tondela

Predictions Casa Pia vs Tondela May 3, 2026 — Predictions and Probabilities

Portugal   /   Primeira Liga Value pick inside
Casa Pia
Casa Pia
Home · last 5 L W D D W
Kick-off
Sun 03 May · 14:30
0:1
Full-time
Tondela
Tondela
L D W W L Away · last 5
Estádio Municipal de Rio Maior · Rio Maior Referee Andre Filipe Domingues Narciso, Portugal
Home Win · CAS
48%
Best 2.40
Draw
28%
Best 3.24
Away Win · TON
24%
Best 3.34
Value pick
Under 2.5
@ 1.68
Fair odds
1.55
book 1.68 · +8.1% vs market
Bookmakers polled
4
distinct bookmakers
Pick confidence
High
p 64% · EV +8.1%

Match predictions

Simple model predictions for the main markets. Advanced model details are available below.

Most likely outcomes show what the model expects to happen. A betting pick also considers bookmaker prices, so it can differ from the most likely outcome.

Estimated probability — model's view. Implied probability — back-solved from the best book price. Bet quality: High Medium Low
FT Results 3 markets
Home Win Best in group
Probability 48.3%
Odds 2.47
Show model details
Implied probability 40.5%
Bet quality Medium
Away Win
Probability 24.1%
Odds 3.10
Show model details
Implied probability 32.3%
Bet quality Low
Draw
Probability 27.6%
Odds 3.32
Show model details
Implied probability 30.1%
Bet quality Low
Totals 8 markets
Under 2.5 Value pick
Probability 64.4%
Odds 1.68
Show model details
Implied probability 59.5%
Bet quality High
Under 1.5
Probability 38.5%
Odds 2.76
Show model details
Implied probability 36.2%
Bet quality Medium
Over 2.5
Probability 35.7%
Odds 2.30
Show model details
Implied probability 43.5%
Bet quality Low
Over 1.5
Probability 61.5%
Odds 1.40
Show model details
Implied probability 71.4%
Bet quality Low
Under 0.5
Probability 13.1%
Odds 8.20
Show model details
Implied probability 12.2%
Bet quality Low
Under 3.5
Probability 82.4%
Odds 1.22
Show model details
Implied probability 82%
Bet quality Low
Over 0.5 Best in group
Probability 86.9%
Odds 1.08
Show model details
Implied probability 92.6%
Bet quality Low
Over 3.5
Probability 17.6%
Odds 4.05
Show model details
Implied probability 24.7%
Bet quality Low
BTTS 2 markets
BTTS No Top pick
Probability 57.5%
Odds 1.85
Show model details
Implied probability 54.1%
Bet quality Medium
BTTS Yes
Probability 42.5%
Odds 1.95
Show model details
Implied probability 51.3%
Bet quality Low
Asian Handicap 2 markets
AH Home 0 Best in group
Probability 48.3%
Odds 1.76
Show model details
Implied probability 56.8%
Bet quality Low
AH Away 0
Probability 24.1%
Odds 2.20
Show model details
Implied probability 45.5%
Bet quality Low
Other Markets 2 markets
Double Chance 1X Top pick
Probability 76%
Odds 1.41
Show model details
Implied probability 70.9%
Bet quality High
Double Chance X2
Probability 51.7%
Odds 1.58
Show model details
Implied probability 63.3%
Bet quality Low

Predictions are model estimates based on data, not guaranteed outcomes. 18+ — please play responsibly.

Value pick of the night · Under 2.5
CAS – TON @ 1.68
+8.1%
Edge
Forecast →