Match Casa Pia vs Tondela May 3, 2026 — Result and Stats on Prognosist

Post-match · 90 sec read

AI picks Under 2.5 at 1.68 — +8.1% better than the market.

Casa Pia holds a slight quality edge and benefits from a moderate home advantage, suggesting a competitive but controlled encounter. Their defensive solidity contrasts with Tondela's sharper offense, hinting at a tactical battle where Casa Pia's compact block could limit scoring chances.

Home momentum is tempered by recent mixed form.
Tondela's attack may test Casa Pia's disciplined defense.
Odds suggest a lower-scoring game, favoring cautious play.

P Recap generated by AI · 6 markets graded

Pick of the night · settled · Under 2.5

Under 2.5 @ 1.68 ✓ Cashed

AI 64% Implied 60% +0.68u

+68%

ROI on stake

⛀ Lineups

CAS 3-4-3 · TON 4-2-3-1

CAS · 3-4-3 4-2-3-1 · TON

11 Marques

Subs used · CAS

57'

Livramento ↑ ·

Marques ↓

58'

Ofori ↑ ·

Brito ↓

72'

Morais ↑ ·

Geraldes ↓

86'

Prieto ↑ ·

Larrazabal ↓

86'

Silva ↑ ·

Conté ↓

Subs used · TON

64'

Tavares ↑ ·

Manso ↓

64'

Bebeto ↑ ·

Cicero ↓

86'

Sithole ↑ ·

Maranhão ↓

87'

Heide ↑ ·

Lopes ↓

90'

Mbunga-Kimpioka ↑ ·

Aïko ↓

📊 Statistics

CAS 0 – 1 TON

48%

Possession (%)

52%

0.45

Expected Goals (xG) expected goals

1.18

Total Shots

Shots on Target

Shots off Target

Shots Inside Box

Corner Kicks

Offsides

Fouls

74%

Pass Accuracy (%)

81%

Yellow Cards

Goalkeeper Saves

⏱ Match events

24 · 0 – 1

Half-time · 0 – 0

Jérémy Livolant

Yellow Card

▮

49'

Rafael Brito

Yellow Card

▮

51'

Cassiano

Red Card

▮

55'

Dailon Rocha Livramento ↓ · Joao Marques ↑

Substitution 1

⇄

57'

Lawrence Ofori ↓ · Rafael Brito ↑

Substitution 2

⇄

58'

64'

⇄

Hélder Tavares ↓ · Tiago Manso ↑

Substitution 1

64'

⇄

Bebeto ↓ · Cicero ↑

Substitution 2

André Geraldes

Yellow Card

▮

65'

68'

⚽

Bebeto (P)

Penalty · 0–1

70'

▮

Maranhão

Yellow Card

Tiago Morais ↓ · André Geraldes ↑

Substitution 3

⇄

72'

75'

▮

Christian Marques

Yellow Card

Tiago Morais

Yellow Card

▮

85'

Kevin Prieto ↓ · Gaizka Larrazabal ↑

Substitution 4

⇄

86'

Kiki Silva ↓ · Abdu Conté ↑

Substitution 5

⇄

86'

⇄

Siphephelo Sithole ↓ · Maranhão ↑

Substitution 3

87'

⇄

Arjen Van Der Heide ↓ · Rony Lopes ↑

Substitution 4

Iyad Mohamed

Yellow Card

▮

90'

⇄

Benjamin Mbunga-Kimpioka ↓ · Makan Aïko ↑

Substitution 5

João Goulart

Yellow Card

▮

90+8'

Kevin Prieto

Yellow Card

▮

90+9'

▮

Benjamin Mbunga-Kimpioka

Yellow Card

Jérémy Livolant

Yellow Card

▮

90+11'

Jérémy Livolant

Red Card

▮

90+11'

Full-time · 0 – 1

Match recap

Tondela won 1–0 away at Casa Pia. At half-time it was 0–0.

On the balance of chances, the visitors held the expected-goals edge, 1.18 to 0.45. In attack, the visitors carried the greater threat — 9 shots to 4, 5 on target. From set pieces, the hosts won the corner count, 7 to 2. At the back, the hosts leaned on their goalkeeper for 5 saves. For discipline, the referee produced 11 yellow cards.

On the scoresheet: Bebeto (68'). Cassiano was sent off in the 55' minute. Jérémy Livolant was sent off in the 90+11' minute.

Model audit for this match: of 17 graded markets, 8 landed and 9 missed, for a net -1.53 units (Brier 0.234).

⚖ Bet recap · markets settled

17 · 8 W · 9 L

Market	Odds	Closed	AI	Result	P/L · 1u
Under 2.5	1.68	—	64%	Cashed	+0.68	Cashed
Home Win	2.47	—	48%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
BTTS No	1.85	—	58%	Cashed	+0.85	Cashed
Under 1.5	2.76	—	39%	Cashed	+1.76	Cashed
AH Home 0	1.76	—	48%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
BTTS Yes	1.95	—	42%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Over 2.5	2.30	—	36%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
AH Away 0	2.20	—	24%	Cashed	+1.20	Cashed
Double Chance 1X	1.41	—	76%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Over 1.5	1.40	—	61%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Double Chance X2	1.58	—	52%	Cashed	+0.58	Cashed
Away Win	3.10	—	24%	Cashed	+2.10	Cashed
Under 0.5	8.20	—	13%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Under 3.5	1.22	—	82%	Cashed	+0.22	Cashed
Over 0.5	1.08	—	87%	Cashed	+0.08	Cashed
Draw	3.32	—	28%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Over 3.5	4.05	—	18%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Total · 17 markets @ 1u each	—	—	—	8 W · 9 L	−1.53u	−9% ROI