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Home › Portugal › Primeira Liga › Sporting CP — Guimaraes

Predictions by Market: Sporting CP vs Guimaraes

Portugal   /   Primeira Liga Value pick inside
Sporting CP
Sporting CP
Home · last 5 D D W W W
Kick-off
Mon 04 May · 19:15
5:1
Full-time
Guimaraes
Guimaraes
W W L L L Away · last 5
Estádio José Alvalade · Lisbon Referee A. Nobre

Outcome probabilities

Home Win · SPO
76%
Best 1.33
Draw
17%
Best 6.25
Away Win · GUI
7%
Best 9.95
Value pick
Draw
@ 6.26
Fair odds
5.83
book 6.26 · +7.3% vs market
Bookmakers polled
4
distinct bookmakers
Pick confidence
Medium
p 17% · EV +7.3%

Value pick isn't the most likely outcome — Home Win is more likely (76%), but Draw is priced above the model's fair odds.

Match predictions

Simple model predictions for the main markets. Advanced model details are available below.

Most likely outcomes show what the model expects to happen. A betting pick also considers bookmaker prices, so it can differ from the most likely outcome.

Estimated probability — model's view. Implied probability — back-solved from the best book price. Bet quality: High Medium Low
FT Results 3 markets
✓ Draw
Probability 17.1%
Odds 6.26
Show model details
Implied probability 16%
Bet quality Medium
✓ Home Win Top pick
Probability 76.2%
Odds 1.29
Show model details
Implied probability 77.5%
Bet quality Medium
✓ Away Win
Probability 6.6%
Odds 11.00
Show model details
Implied probability 9.1%
Bet quality Low
Totals 8 markets
✓ Over 3.5
Probability 45.7%
Odds 2.26
Show model details
Implied probability 44.3%
Bet quality Low
✓ Under 3.5
Probability 54.3%
Odds 1.70
Show model details
Implied probability 58.8%
Bet quality Low
✓ Under 2.5
Probability 33.7%
Odds 2.63
Show model details
Implied probability 38%
Bet quality Low
✓ Over 2.5
Probability 66.4%
Odds 1.50
Show model details
Implied probability 66.7%
Bet quality Low
✓ Over 0.5 Best in group
Probability 95.7%
Odds 1.02
Show model details
Implied probability 98%
Bet quality Low
✓ Over 1.5
Probability 85.1%
Odds 1.14
Show model details
Implied probability 87.7%
Bet quality Low
✓ Under 1.5
Probability 14.9%
Odds 6.00
Show model details
Implied probability 16.7%
Bet quality Low
✓ Under 0.5
Probability 4.3%
Odds 17.50
Show model details
Implied probability 5.7%
Bet quality Low
BTTS 2 markets
✓ BTTS Yes Top pick
Probability 54.6%
Odds 1.91
Show model details
Implied probability 52.4%
Bet quality Medium
✓ BTTS No
Probability 45.4%
Odds 1.91
Show model details
Implied probability 52.4%
Bet quality Low
Asian Handicap 2 markets
✓ AH Home 0 Top pick
Probability 76.2%
Odds 1.04
Show model details
Implied probability 96.2%
Bet quality Medium
✓ AH Away 0
Probability 6.6%
Odds 7.30
Show model details
Implied probability 13.7%
Bet quality Low
Other Markets 2 markets
✓ Double Chance 1X Top pick
Probability 93.4%
Odds 1.06
Show model details
Implied probability 94.3%
Bet quality Medium
✓ Double Chance X2
Probability 23.8%
Odds 3.86
Show model details
Implied probability 25.9%
Bet quality Low

Predictions are model estimates based on data, not guaranteed outcomes. 18+ — please play responsibly.

Value pick of the night · Draw
SPO – GUI @ 6.26
+7.3%
Edge
Forecast →