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Home › Portugal › Primeira Liga › Alverca — Arouca

Predictions by Market: Alverca vs Arouca

Portugal   /   Primeira Liga Value pick inside
Alverca
Alverca
Home · last 5 L W L D L
Kick-off
Fri 24 Apr · 19:15
2:1
Full-time
Arouca
Arouca
W L D W W Away · last 5
Complexo Desportivo FC Alverca · Alverkaduribajo Referee Diogo Rosa, Portugal

Outcome probabilities

Home Win · ALV
34%
Best 2.30
Draw
27%
Best 3.41
Away Win · ARO
39%
Best 3.40
Value pick
Under 1.5
@ 3.61
Fair odds
3.28
book 3.61 · +9.9% vs market
Bookmakers polled
4
distinct bookmakers
Pick confidence
Medium
p 30% · EV +9.9%

Value pick isn't the most likely outcome — Over 1.5 is more likely (70%), but Under 1.5 is priced above the model's fair odds.

Match predictions

Simple model predictions for the main markets. Advanced model details are available below.

Most likely outcomes show what the model expects to happen. A betting pick also considers bookmaker prices, so it can differ from the most likely outcome.

Estimated probability — model's view. Implied probability — back-solved from the best book price. Bet quality: High Medium Low
FT Results 3 markets
✓ Home Win
Probability 34.1%
Odds 2.36
Show model details
Implied probability 42.4%
Bet quality Low
✓ Away Win Best in group
Probability 38.9%
Odds 3.25
Show model details
Implied probability 30.8%
Bet quality Medium
✓ Draw
Probability 26.9%
Odds 3.40
Show model details
Implied probability 29.4%
Bet quality Low
Totals 8 markets
✓ Under 2.5
Probability 56.3%
Odds 1.90
Show model details
Implied probability 52.6%
Bet quality Medium
✓ Over 2.5
Probability 43.7%
Odds 2.00
Show model details
Implied probability 50%
Bet quality Low
✓ Under 1.5
Probability 30.5%
Odds 3.61
Show model details
Implied probability 27.7%
Bet quality Medium
✓ Under 3.5
Probability 76.4%
Odds 1.35
Show model details
Implied probability 74.1%
Bet quality Low
✓ Under 0.5
Probability 9.9%
Odds 10.50
Show model details
Implied probability 9.5%
Bet quality Low
✓ Over 0.5 Best in group
Probability 90.1%
Odds 1.07
Show model details
Implied probability 93.5%
Bet quality Low
✓ Over 1.5
Probability 69.6%
Odds 1.31
Show model details
Implied probability 76.3%
Bet quality Low
✓ Over 3.5
Probability 23.7%
Odds 3.40
Show model details
Implied probability 29.4%
Bet quality Low
BTTS 2 markets
✓ BTTS No Value pick
Probability 51.5%
Odds 2.12
Show model details
Implied probability 47.2%
Bet quality Medium
✓ BTTS Yes
Probability 48.5%
Odds 1.73
Show model details
Implied probability 57.8%
Bet quality Low
Asian Handicap 2 markets
✓ AH Away 0 Best in group
Probability 38.9%
Odds 2.29
Show model details
Implied probability 43.7%
Bet quality Low
✓ AH Home 0
Probability 34.1%
Odds 1.69
Show model details
Implied probability 59.2%
Bet quality Low
Other Markets 2 markets
✓ Double Chance X2 Top pick
Probability 65.9%
Odds 1.63
Show model details
Implied probability 61.4%
Bet quality Medium
✓ Double Chance 1X
Probability 61.1%
Odds 1.38
Show model details
Implied probability 72.5%
Bet quality Medium

Predictions are model estimates based on data, not guaranteed outcomes. 18+ — please play responsibly.

Value pick of the night · Under 1.5
ALV – ARO @ 3.61
+9.9%
Edge
Forecast →