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Home › Portugal › Primeira Liga › Alverca — Arouca

Alverca vs Arouca 2:1: Match Review & Stats

Portugal   /   Primeira Liga Value pick inside
Alverca
Alverca
Home · last 5 L W L D L
Kick-off
Fri 24 Apr · 19:15
2:1
Full-time
Arouca
Arouca
W L D W W Away · last 5
Complexo Desportivo FC Alverca · Alverkaduribajo Referee Diogo Rosa, Portugal
Miss
BTTS No
BTTS No
AI 51% · book 2.12 ✗
Miss
Double Chance X2
Double Chance X2
AI 66% · book 1.63 ✗
Miss
Under 2.5
Under 2.5
AI 56% · book 1.90 ✗
Total goals
3
2 · 1
xG (open play)
1.06 – 0.88
Δ +0.18
Possession
36% – 64%
AI accuracy
8 / 17
picks cashed

Model verdict

Post-match · 90 sec read

AI picks Under 1.5 at 3.61 — +9.9% better than the market.

Alverca hosts Arouca in a clash where the visitors hold a slight quality edge, but the home side’s defensive solidity and recent home form offer a pressing edge. Alverca’s compact backline could frustrate Arouca’s moderate attack, while the home team’s better recent points per game hints at momentum. Expect a tactical battle with limited clear-cut chances, leaning towards a tight contest under a balanced pace.

  • Alverca’s strong defensive shape vs Arouca’s modest offense
  • Home momentum from recent results
  • Balanced tempo suggests cautious approach

P Recap generated by AI · 6 markets graded
Pick of the night · settled · Under 1.5
Under 1.5 @ 3.61 ✗ Lost
AI 30% Implied 28% −1.00u
−100%
ROI on stake

Lineups

ALV 3-4-2-1 · ARO 4-2-3-1
ALV · 3-4-2-1 4-2-3-1 · ARO 31 Mendes 4 Naves ⚽ 5 Gomez 33 Meupiyou 2 Touaizi 26 Rhaldney 18 Lincoln 12 James 20 Figueiredo 10 Chiquinho 91 Lima 12 Arruabarrena 28 Esgaio 4 Rocha 3 Fontán 25 Kuipers 21 Fukui 22 Ee ⚽ 10 Gozálbez 14 Lee 7 Djouahra 17 Barbero
Subs used · ALV
68' Marezi ↑ · Lima ↓
68' Baseya ↑ · Gomez ↓
82' Gui ↑ · Figueiredo ↓
90+1' Spencer ↑ · Chiquinho ↓
90+1' Moreira ↑ · Rhaldney ↓
Subs used · ARO
60' Trezza ↑ · Gozalbez ↓
75' Santos ↑ · van Ee ↓
75' Flores ↑ · Lee ↓
83' Mayulu ↑ · Rocha ↓
83' Mansilla ↑ · Fukui ↓

Statistics

ALV 2 – 1 ARO
36%
Possession (%)
64%
1.06
Expected Goals (xG) expected goals
0.88
7
Total Shots
14
3
Shots on Target
3
2
Shots off Target
6
5
Shots Inside Box
6
6
Corner Kicks
3
4
Offsides
2
8
Fouls
12
76%
Pass Accuracy (%)
84%
0
Yellow Cards
5
1
Goalkeeper Saves
1

Match events

19 · 2 – 1
Naves
Assist · N. Touaizi · 1–0
⚽
9'
35'
▮
Tiago Esgaio
Yellow Card
Half-time · 1 – 0
49'
⚽
E. van Ee
Assist · B. Kuipers · 1–1
60'
⇄
A. Trezza ↓ · P. Gozalbez ↑
Substitution 1
61'
▮
Jose Fontán
Yellow Card
67'
▮
Matías Rocha
Yellow Card
Marezi ↓ · Sandro Lima ↑
Substitution 1
⇄
68'
S. Baseya ↓ · S. Gomez ↑
Substitution 2
⇄
68'
70'
▮
Espen Van Ee
Yellow Card
Marezi
Assist · Chiquinho · 2–1
⚽
71'
75'
⇄
Pedro Santos ↓ · E. van Ee ↑
Substitution 2
75'
⇄
M. Flores ↓ · H. Lee ↑
Substitution 3
D. Gui ↓ · Figueiredo ↑
Substitution 3
⇄
82'
83'
⇄
F. Mayulu ↓ · M. Rocha ↑
Substitution 4
83'
⇄
B. Mansilla ↓ · T. Fukui ↑
Substitution 5
89'
▮
Alfonso Trezza
Yellow Card
D. Spencer ↓ · Chiquinho ↑
Substitution 4
⇄
90+1'
V. Moreira ↓ · Rhaldney ↑
Substitution 5
⇄
90+1'
90+6'
▮
Pedro Santos
Yellow Card
Full-time · 2 – 1

Match recap

Alverca beat Arouca 2–1 at home. At half-time it was 1–0.

In possession, the visitors ran the game with 64% of the ball. For accuracy, the visitors completed 84% of their passes. In attack, the visitors carried the greater threat — 14 shots to 7, 3 on target. From set pieces, the hosts won the corner count, 6 to 3. For discipline, the referee produced 5 yellow cards.

On the scoresheet: Naves (9'), E. van Ee (49'), Marezi (71').

Model audit for this match: of 17 graded markets, 8 landed and 9 missed, for a net -4.11 units (Brier 0.195).

Bet recap · markets settled

17 · 8 W · 9 L
Market Odds Closed AI Result P/L · 1u
BTTS No 2.12 — 51% Lost −1.00 Miss
Double Chance X2 1.63 — 66% Lost −1.00 Miss
Under 2.5 1.90 — 56% Lost −1.00 Miss
AH Away 0 2.29 — 39% Lost −1.00 Miss
Over 2.5 2.00 — 44% Cashed +1.00 Cashed
BTTS Yes 1.73 — 49% Cashed +0.73 Cashed
Home Win 2.36 — 34% Cashed +1.36 Cashed
AH Home 0 1.69 — 34% Cashed +0.69 Cashed
Away Win 3.25 — 39% Lost −1.00 Miss
Under 1.5 3.61 — 30% Lost −1.00 Miss
Double Chance 1X 1.38 — 61% Cashed +0.38 Cashed
Under 3.5 1.35 — 76% Cashed +0.35 Cashed
Under 0.5 10.50 — 10% Lost −1.00 Miss
Over 0.5 1.07 — 90% Cashed +0.07 Cashed
Draw 3.40 — 27% Lost −1.00 Miss
Over 1.5 1.31 — 70% Cashed +0.31 Cashed
Over 3.5 3.40 — 24% Lost −1.00 Miss
Total · 17 markets @ 1u each — — — 8 W · 9 L −4.11u −24% ROI
Value pick of the night · Under 1.5
ALV – ARO @ 3.61
+9.9%
Edge
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