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Home › Portugal › Primeira Liga › Tondela — Nacional

Predictions by Market: Tondela vs Nacional

Portugal   /   Primeira Liga Value pick inside
Tondela
Tondela
Home · last 5 L D W W L
Kick-off
Sat 25 Apr · 14:30
0:2
Full-time
Nacional
Nacional
W W L L W Away · last 5
Estádio João Cardoso · Tondela Referee Helder Malheiro, Portugal

Outcome probabilities

Home Win · TON
26%
Best 2.90
Draw
26%
Best 3.40
Away Win · NAC
48%
Best 2.56
Value pick
Under 1.5
@ 3.48
Fair odds
3.08
book 3.48 · +13.1% vs market
Bookmakers polled
4
distinct bookmakers
Pick confidence
Medium
p 33% · EV +13.1%

Value pick isn't the most likely outcome — Over 1.5 is more likely (67%), but Under 1.5 is priced above the model's fair odds.

Match predictions

Simple model predictions for the main markets. Advanced model details are available below.

Most likely outcomes show what the model expects to happen. A betting pick also considers bookmaker prices, so it can differ from the most likely outcome.

Estimated probability — model's view. Implied probability — back-solved from the best book price. Bet quality: High Medium Low
FT Results 3 markets
✓ Away Win Best in group
Probability 47.5%
Odds 2.44
Show model details
Implied probability 41%
Bet quality Medium
✓ Home Win
Probability 26.1%
Odds 2.80
Show model details
Implied probability 35.7%
Bet quality Low
✓ Draw
Probability 26.4%
Odds 3.35
Show model details
Implied probability 29.9%
Bet quality Low
Totals 8 markets
✓ Under 2.5 Value pick
Probability 57.7%
Odds 1.87
Show model details
Implied probability 53.5%
Bet quality Medium
✓ Over 2.5
Probability 42.3%
Odds 1.90
Show model details
Implied probability 52.6%
Bet quality Low
✓ Under 1.5
Probability 32.5%
Odds 3.48
Show model details
Implied probability 28.7%
Bet quality Medium
✓ Under 3.5
Probability 77.5%
Odds 1.32
Show model details
Implied probability 75.8%
Bet quality Low
✓ Under 0.5
Probability 11.1%
Odds 9.25
Show model details
Implied probability 10.8%
Bet quality Low
✓ Over 0.5 Best in group
Probability 88.9%
Odds 1.05
Show model details
Implied probability 95.2%
Bet quality Low
✓ Over 1.5
Probability 67.5%
Odds 1.29
Show model details
Implied probability 77.5%
Bet quality Low
✓ Over 3.5
Probability 22.5%
Odds 3.25
Show model details
Implied probability 30.8%
Bet quality Low
BTTS 2 markets
✓ BTTS No Value pick
Probability 52.3%
Odds 2.06
Show model details
Implied probability 48.5%
Bet quality Medium
✓ BTTS Yes
Probability 47.7%
Odds 1.69
Show model details
Implied probability 59.2%
Bet quality Low
Asian Handicap 2 markets
✓ AH Away 0 Best in group
Probability 47.5%
Odds 1.78
Show model details
Implied probability 56.2%
Bet quality Low
✓ AH Home 0
Probability 26.1%
Odds 2.06
Show model details
Implied probability 48.5%
Bet quality Low
Other Markets 2 markets
✓ Double Chance X2 Top pick
Probability 73.9%
Odds 1.40
Show model details
Implied probability 71.4%
Bet quality Medium
✓ Double Chance 1X
Probability 52.5%
Odds 1.50
Show model details
Implied probability 66.7%
Bet quality Low

Predictions are model estimates based on data, not guaranteed outcomes. 18+ — please play responsibly.

Value pick of the night · Under 1.5
TON – NAC @ 3.48
+13.1%
Edge
Forecast →