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Home Portugal Primeira Liga Tondela — Nacional

Predictions Tondela vs Nacional April 25, 2026 — Predictions and Probabilities

Portugal   /   Primeira Liga Value pick inside
Tondela
Tondela
Home · last 5 L D W W L
Kick-off
Sat 25 Apr · 14:30
0:2
Full-time
Nacional
Nacional
W W L L W Away · last 5
Estádio João Cardoso · Tondela Referee Helder Malheiro, Portugal
Home Win · TON
26%
Best 2.90
Draw
26%
Best 3.40
Away Win · NAC
48%
Best 2.56
Value pick
Under 2.5
@ 1.87
Fair odds
1.73
book 1.87 · +7.9% vs market
Bookmakers polled
4
distinct bookmakers
Pick confidence
Medium
p 58% · EV +7.9%

Match predictions

Simple model predictions for the main markets. Advanced model details are available below.

Most likely outcomes show what the model expects to happen. A betting pick also considers bookmaker prices, so it can differ from the most likely outcome.

Estimated probability — model's view. Implied probability — back-solved from the best book price. Bet quality: High Medium Low
FT Results 3 markets
Away Win Best in group
Probability 47.5%
Odds 2.44
Show model details
Implied probability 41%
Bet quality Medium
Home Win
Probability 26.1%
Odds 2.80
Show model details
Implied probability 35.7%
Bet quality Low
Draw
Probability 26.4%
Odds 3.35
Show model details
Implied probability 29.9%
Bet quality Low
Totals 8 markets
Under 2.5 Value pick
Probability 57.7%
Odds 1.87
Show model details
Implied probability 53.5%
Bet quality Medium
Over 2.5
Probability 42.3%
Odds 1.90
Show model details
Implied probability 52.6%
Bet quality Low
Under 1.5
Probability 32.5%
Odds 3.48
Show model details
Implied probability 28.7%
Bet quality Medium
Under 3.5
Probability 77.5%
Odds 1.32
Show model details
Implied probability 75.8%
Bet quality Low
Under 0.5
Probability 11.1%
Odds 9.25
Show model details
Implied probability 10.8%
Bet quality Low
Over 0.5 Best in group
Probability 88.9%
Odds 1.05
Show model details
Implied probability 95.2%
Bet quality Low
Over 1.5
Probability 67.5%
Odds 1.29
Show model details
Implied probability 77.5%
Bet quality Low
Over 3.5
Probability 22.5%
Odds 3.25
Show model details
Implied probability 30.8%
Bet quality Low
BTTS 2 markets
BTTS No Value pick
Probability 52.3%
Odds 2.06
Show model details
Implied probability 48.5%
Bet quality Medium
BTTS Yes
Probability 47.7%
Odds 1.69
Show model details
Implied probability 59.2%
Bet quality Low
Asian Handicap 2 markets
AH Away 0 Best in group
Probability 47.5%
Odds 1.78
Show model details
Implied probability 56.2%
Bet quality Low
AH Home 0
Probability 26.1%
Odds 2.06
Show model details
Implied probability 48.5%
Bet quality Low
Other Markets 2 markets
Double Chance X2 Top pick
Probability 73.9%
Odds 1.40
Show model details
Implied probability 71.4%
Bet quality Medium
Double Chance 1X
Probability 52.5%
Odds 1.50
Show model details
Implied probability 66.7%
Bet quality Low

Predictions are model estimates based on data, not guaranteed outcomes. 18+ — please play responsibly.

Value pick of the night · Under 2.5
TON – NAC @ 1.87
+7.9%
Edge
Forecast →