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⚽ Football 📈 Forecasts
Football Portugal Primeira Liga Tondela — Nacional

Match Tondela vs Nacional April 25, 2026

Portugal   /   Primeira Liga Value pick inside
Tondela
Tondela
Home · last 5 L D W W L
Kick-off
Sat 25 Apr · 14:30
0:2
Full-time
Nacional
Nacional
W W L L W Away · last 5
Estádio João Cardoso · Tondela Referee Helder Malheiro, Portugal
Hit
Away Win
Away Win
AI 48% · book 2.44
Hit
Under 2.5
Under 2.5
AI 58% · book 1.87
Hit
BTTS No
BTTS No
AI 52% · book 2.06
Total goals
2
0 · 2
xG (open play)
1.44 – 1.26
Δ +0.18
Possession
62% – 38%
AI accuracy
8 / 17
picks cashed
Post-match · 90 sec read

AI picks Under 2.5 at 1.87 — +7.9% better than the market.

Nacional arrives with a clear quality edge and better recent form, suggesting they hold the upper hand despite playing away. Tondela’s defensive solidity at home could keep the scoreline tight, but Nacional’s sharper attack and more consistent momentum hint at a controlled game favoring the visitors.

  • Quality gap favors Nacional’s balanced play.
  • Tondela’s home defense may limit chances.
  • Recent form leans towards Nacional’s confidence.

The odds suggest a moderate pace with a lean towards fewer goals, fitting a tactical battle where Nacional’s efficiency might break through a compact home block.

P Recap generated by AI · 6 markets graded
Pick of the night · settled · Under 2.5
Under 2.5 @ 1.87 ✓ Cashed
AI 58% Implied 53% +0.87u
+87%
ROI on stake

Lineups

TON 4-2-3-1 · NAC 4-2-3-1
Subs used · TON
38' Manso ↑ · Conceicao
61' Sithole ↑ · van der Heide
61' Aiko ↑ · Felix
76' Kimpioka ↑ · Hodge
Subs used · NAC
14' Ruan ↑ · Veron
78' Sousa ↑ · Junior
90+1' Aurelio ↑ · Gomes
90+1' Silva ↑ · Soares

📊 Statistics

TON 02 NAC
62%
Possession (%)
38%
1.44
Expected Goals (xG) expected goals
1.26
22
Total Shots
17
5
Shots on Target
6
9
Shots off Target
4
13
Shots Inside Box
8
8
Corner Kicks
7
1
Offsides
1
16
Fouls
15
82%
Pass Accuracy (%)
67%
2
Yellow Cards
1
5
Goalkeeper Saves
5

Match events

13 · 0 – 2
14'
Pablo Ruan ↓ · Gabriel Veron ↑
Substitution 1
22'
J. Ramirez
Assist · Daniel Junior · 0–1
31'
B. Medina
Own goal · 0–2
T. Manso ↓ · R. Conceicao ↑
Substitution 1
38'
Half-time · 0 – 2
Tiago Manso
Yellow Card
58'
S. Sithole ↓ · A. van der Heide ↑
Substitution 2
61'
M. Aiko ↓ · H. Felix ↑
Substitution 3
61'
64'
Jesús Ramírez
Yellow Card
B. Kimpioka ↓ · J. Hodge ↑
Substitution 4
76'
78'
A. Sousa ↓ · Daniel Junior ↑
Substitution 2
Makan Aïko
Yellow Card
90'
90+1'
J. Aurelio ↓ · Jose Gomes ↑
Substitution 3
90+1'
J. Silva ↓ · F. Soares ↑
Substitution 4
Full-time · 0 – 2

Bet recap · markets settled

17 · 8 W · 9 L
Market Odds Closed AI Result P/L · 1u
Away Win 2.44 48% Cashed +1.44 Cashed
Under 2.5 1.87 58% Cashed +0.87 Cashed
BTTS No 2.06 52% Cashed +1.06 Cashed
AH Away 0 1.78 48% Cashed +0.78 Cashed
BTTS Yes 1.69 48% Lost −1.00 Miss
Over 2.5 1.90 42% Lost −1.00 Miss
Home Win 2.80 26% Lost −1.00 Miss
AH Home 0 2.06 26% Lost −1.00 Miss
Double Chance X2 1.40 74% Cashed +0.40 Cashed
Under 1.5 3.48 33% Lost −1.00 Miss
Double Chance 1X 1.50 52% Lost −1.00 Miss
Under 3.5 1.32 78% Cashed +0.32 Cashed
Under 0.5 9.25 11% Lost −1.00 Miss
Over 0.5 1.05 89% Cashed +0.05 Cashed
Draw 3.35 26% Lost −1.00 Miss
Over 1.5 1.29 67% Cashed +0.29 Cashed
Over 3.5 3.25 23% Lost −1.00 Miss
Total · 17 markets @ 1u each 8 W · 9 L −3.79u −22% ROI
Best bet of the night · Under 2.5
TON – NAC @ 1.87
+7.9%
Edge
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