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Home › Portugal › Primeira Liga › Moreirense — Estoril

Predictions by Market: Moreirense vs Estoril

Portugal   /   Primeira Liga Value pick inside
Moreirense
Moreirense
Home · last 5 W L W L D
Kick-off
Mon 20 Apr · 19:15
1:0
Full-time
Estoril
Estoril
L L D D L Away · last 5
Parque Joaquim Almeida Freitas · Guimarães Referee Marcio Torres, Portugal

Outcome probabilities

Home Win · MOR
24%
Best 3.00
Draw
26%
Best 3.45
Away Win · EST
50%
Best 2.25
Value pick
Under 1.5
@ 3.65
Fair odds
3.39
book 3.65 · +7.8% vs market
Bookmakers polled
4
distinct bookmakers
Pick confidence
Medium
p 30% · EV +7.8%

Value pick isn't the most likely outcome — Over 1.5 is more likely (70%), but Under 1.5 is priced above the model's fair odds.

Match predictions

Simple model predictions for the main markets. Advanced model details are available below.

Most likely outcomes show what the model expects to happen. A betting pick also considers bookmaker prices, so it can differ from the most likely outcome.

Estimated probability — model's view. Implied probability — back-solved from the best book price. Bet quality: High Medium Low
FT Results 3 markets
✓ Away Win Top pick
Probability 50%
Odds 2.40
Show model details
Implied probability 41.7%
Bet quality Medium
✓ Home Win
Probability 23.6%
Odds 3.16
Show model details
Implied probability 31.7%
Bet quality Low
✓ Draw
Probability 26.4%
Odds 3.50
Show model details
Implied probability 28.6%
Bet quality Low
Totals 8 markets
✓ Under 2.5
Probability 54.9%
Odds 1.92
Show model details
Implied probability 52.1%
Bet quality Medium
✓ Over 2.5
Probability 45.1%
Odds 1.96
Show model details
Implied probability 51%
Bet quality Low
✓ Under 1.5
Probability 29.5%
Odds 3.65
Show model details
Implied probability 27.4%
Bet quality Medium
✓ Under 0.5
Probability 9.3%
Odds 11.00
Show model details
Implied probability 9.1%
Bet quality Low
✓ Under 3.5
Probability 75.3%
Odds 1.35
Show model details
Implied probability 74.1%
Bet quality Low
✓ Over 0.5 Best in group
Probability 90.7%
Odds 1.07
Show model details
Implied probability 93.5%
Bet quality Low
✓ Over 1.5
Probability 70.5%
Odds 1.32
Show model details
Implied probability 75.8%
Bet quality Low
✓ Over 3.5
Probability 24.7%
Odds 3.30
Show model details
Implied probability 30.3%
Bet quality Low
BTTS 2 markets
✓ BTTS No Top pick
Probability 50.9%
Odds 2.10
Show model details
Implied probability 47.6%
Bet quality Medium
✓ BTTS Yes
Probability 49.1%
Odds 1.73
Show model details
Implied probability 57.8%
Bet quality Low
Asian Handicap 2 markets
✓ AH Away 0 Best in group
Probability 50%
Odds 1.71
Show model details
Implied probability 58.5%
Bet quality Low
✓ AH Home 0
Probability 23.6%
Odds 2.24
Show model details
Implied probability 44.6%
Bet quality Low
Other Markets 2 markets
✓ Double Chance 1X
Probability 50%
Odds 1.61
Show model details
Implied probability 62.1%
Bet quality Low
✓ Double Chance X2 Top pick
Probability 76.4%
Odds 1.40
Show model details
Implied probability 71.4%
Bet quality Medium

Predictions are model estimates based on data, not guaranteed outcomes. 18+ — please play responsibly.

Value pick of the night · Under 1.5
MOR – EST @ 3.65
+7.8%
Edge
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