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Home › Portugal › Primeira Liga › Alverca — Casa Pia

Alverca vs Casa Pia 3:1: Match Review & Stats

Portugal   /   Primeira Liga Value pick inside
Alverca
Alverca
Home · last 5 L W L D L
Kick-off
Sun 12 Apr · 14:30
3:1
Full-time
Casa Pia
Casa Pia
L W D D W Away · last 5
Complexo Desportivo FC Alverca · Alverkaduribajo Referee Luis Carlos Mateus Filipe, Portugal
Hit
Home Win
Home Win
AI 53% · book 2.18 ✓
Miss
BTTS No
BTTS No
AI 54% · book 1.90 ✗
Miss
Under 2.5
Under 2.5
AI 59% · book 1.71 ✗
Total goals
4
3 · 1
xG (open play)
1.83 – 0.65
Δ +1.18
Possession
60% – 40%
AI accuracy
8 / 17
picks cashed

Model verdict

Post-match · 90 sec read

AI picks Double Chance 1X at 1.32 — +5.4% better than the market.

P Recap generated by AI · 6 markets graded
Pick of the night · settled · Double Chance 1X
Double Chance 1X @ 1.32 ✓ Cashed
AI 80% Implied 76% +0.32u
+32%
ROI on stake

Lineups

ALV 3-4-3 · CAS 3-4-3
ALV · 3-4-3 3-4-3 · CAS 31 Mendes 4 Naves 5 Gómez 33 Meupiyou 2 Touaizi 26 Rhaldney ⚽ 18 Lincoln 12 James 20 Figueiredo ⚽ 91 Lima 10 Chiquinho ⚽ 1 Sequeira 4 Goulart 3 Bandeira 43 Sousa 72 Larrazabal 42 Pérez 8 Brito 75 Rosas 29 Livolant 90 Cassiano 11 Marques ⚽
Subs used · ALV
75' Marezi ↑ · Lima ↓
87' Nuozzi ↑ · Rhaldney ↓
87' Moreira ↑ · Figueiredo ↓
90+3' Gui ↑ · Lincoln ↓
90+3' Kassary ↑ · Chiquinho ↓
Subs used · CAS
58' Mendes ↑ · Cassiano ↓
68' Livramento ↑ · Livolant ↓
69' Ofori ↑ · Marques ↓
69' Mohamed ↑ · Perez ↓
82' Geraldes ↑ · Sousa ↓

Statistics

ALV 3 – 1 CAS
60%
Possession (%)
40%
1.83
Expected Goals (xG) expected goals
0.65
11
Total Shots
15
5
Shots on Target
5
4
Shots off Target
5
6
Shots Inside Box
8
9
Corner Kicks
11
0
Offsides
1
10
Fouls
15
79%
Pass Accuracy (%)
61%
4
Goalkeeper Saves
3

Match events

14 · 3 – 1
1'
⚽
J. Marques
Assist · J. Livolant · 0–1
Half-time · 0 – 1
Figueiredo
Assist · Chiquinho · 1–1
⚽
49'
58'
⇄
C. Mendes ↓ · Cassiano ↑
Substitution 1
Chiquinho
2–1
⚽
63'
68'
⇄
D. Livramento ↓ · J. Livolant ↑
Substitution 2
69'
⇄
L. Ofori ↓ · J. Marques ↑
Substitution 3
69'
⇄
I. Mohamed ↓ · S. Perez ↑
Substitution 4
Marezi ↓ · Sandro Lima ↑
Substitution 1
⇄
75'
82'
⇄
A. Geraldes ↓ · D. Sousa ↑
Substitution 5
Rhaldney
Assist · Marezi · 3–1
⚽
83'
C. Nuozzi ↓ · Rhaldney ↑
Substitution 2
⇄
87'
V. Moreira ↓ · Figueiredo ↑
Substitution 3
⇄
87'
D. Gui ↓ · Lincoln ↑
Substitution 4
⇄
90+3'
Z. Kassary ↓ · Chiquinho ↑
Substitution 5
⇄
90+3'
Full-time · 3 – 1

Match recap

Alverca beat Casa Pia 3–1 at home. At half-time it was 0–1.

In possession, the hosts ran the game with 60% of the ball. For accuracy, the hosts completed 79% of their passes. On the balance of chances, the hosts held the expected-goals edge, 1.83 to 0.65. In attack, the visitors carried the greater threat — 15 shots to 11, 5 on target.

On the scoresheet: J. Marques (1'), Figueiredo (49'), Chiquinho (63'), Rhaldney (83').

Model audit for this match: of 17 graded markets, 8 landed and 9 missed, for a net -1.03 units (Brier 0.215).

Bet recap · markets settled

17 · 8 W · 9 L
Market Odds Closed AI Result P/L · 1u
Home Win 2.18 — 53% Cashed +1.18 Cashed
BTTS No 1.90 — 54% Lost −1.00 Miss
Under 2.5 1.71 — 59% Lost −1.00 Miss
Over 2.5 2.25 — 41% Cashed +1.25 Cashed
BTTS Yes 1.99 — 46% Cashed +0.99 Cashed
Double Chance X2 1.75 — 47% Lost −1.00 Miss
AH Away 0 2.62 — 20% Lost −1.00 Miss
Double Chance 1X 1.32 — 80% Cashed +0.32 Cashed
Under 1.5 3.03 — 33% Lost −1.00 Miss
Over 1.5 1.42 — 67% Cashed +0.42 Cashed
AH Home 0 1.52 — 53% Cashed +0.52 Cashed
Under 3.5 1.25 — 79% Lost −1.00 Miss
Over 0.5 1.09 — 89% Cashed +0.09 Cashed
Under 0.5 8.50 — 11% Lost −1.00 Miss
Draw 3.37 — 27% Lost −1.00 Miss
Over 3.5 4.20 — 21% Cashed +3.20 Cashed
Away Win 3.70 — 20% Lost −1.00 Miss
Total · 17 markets @ 1u each — — — 8 W · 9 L −1.03u −6% ROI
Value pick of the night · Double Chance 1X
ALV – CAS @ 1.32
+5.4%
Edge
Forecast →