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Home Portugal Primeira Liga Benfica — Nacional

Predictions Benfica vs Nacional April 12, 2026 — Predictions and Probabilities

Portugal   /   Primeira Liga Value pick inside
Benfica
Benfica
Home · last 5 W W D D W
Kick-off
Sun 12 Apr · 17:00
2:0
Full-time
Nacional
Nacional
W W L L W Away · last 5
Referee Fabio Jose Costa Verissimo, Portugal
Home Win · BEN
84%
Best 1.15
Draw
12%
Best 7.91
Away Win · NAC
4%
Best 15.00
Value pick
Under 3.5
@ 1.95
Fair odds
1.80
book 1.95 · +8.2% vs market
Bookmakers polled
4
distinct bookmakers
Pick confidence
High
p 55% · EV +8.2%

Match predictions

Simple model predictions for the main markets. Advanced model details are available below.

Most likely outcomes show what the model expects to happen. A betting pick also considers bookmaker prices, so it can differ from the most likely outcome.

Estimated probability — model's view. Implied probability — back-solved from the best book price. Bet quality: High Medium Low
FT Results 3 markets
Draw
Probability 12.3%
Odds 10.10
Show model details
Implied probability 9.9%
Bet quality Medium
Home Win Top pick
Probability 84.2%
Odds 1.16
Show model details
Implied probability 86.2%
Bet quality Medium
Away Win
Probability 3.5%
Odds 21.00
Show model details
Implied probability 4.8%
Bet quality Low
Totals 8 markets
Under 3.5 Value pick
Probability 55.5%
Odds 1.95
Show model details
Implied probability 51.3%
Bet quality High
Over 3.5
Probability 44.5%
Odds 1.96
Show model details
Implied probability 51%
Bet quality Low
Under 2.5
Probability 34.1%
Odds 3.25
Show model details
Implied probability 30.8%
Bet quality Medium
Under 1.5
Probability 15.4%
Odds 7.00
Show model details
Implied probability 14.3%
Bet quality Low
Under 0.5
Probability 4%
Odds 25.00
Show model details
Implied probability 4%
Bet quality Low
Over 0.5 Best in group
Probability 96%
Odds 1.02
Show model details
Implied probability 98%
Bet quality Low
Over 1.5
Probability 84.6%
Odds 1.12
Show model details
Implied probability 89.3%
Bet quality Low
Over 2.5
Probability 65.9%
Odds 1.38
Show model details
Implied probability 72.5%
Bet quality Low
BTTS 2 markets
BTTS Yes
Probability 50%
Odds 2.08
Show model details
Implied probability 48.1%
Bet quality Low
BTTS No Best in group
Probability 50%
Odds 1.80
Show model details
Implied probability 55.6%
Bet quality Low
Asian Handicap 2 markets
AH Home 0 Top pick
Probability 84.2%
Odds 1.03
Show model details
Implied probability 97.1%
Bet quality Medium
AH Away 0
Probability 3.5%
Odds 12.50
Show model details
Implied probability 8%
Bet quality Low
Other Markets 2 markets
Double Chance 1X Top pick
Probability 96.5%
Odds 1.03
Show model details
Implied probability 97.1%
Bet quality Medium
Double Chance X2
Probability 15.8%
Odds 6.40
Show model details
Implied probability 15.6%
Bet quality Low

Predictions are model estimates based on data, not guaranteed outcomes. 18+ — please play responsibly.

Value pick of the night · Under 3.5
BEN – NAC @ 1.95
+8.2%
Edge
Forecast →