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Home › Portugal › Primeira Liga › Casa Pia — Benfica

Predictions by Market: Casa Pia vs Benfica

Portugal   /   Primeira Liga Value pick inside
Casa Pia
Casa Pia
Home · last 5 L W D D W
Kick-off
Mon 06 Apr · 19:45
1:1
Full-time
Benfica
Benfica
W W D D W Away · last 5
Estádio Municipal de Rio Maior · Rio Maior Referee Helder Filipe Claudio Carvalho, Portugal

Outcome probabilities

Home Win · CAS
5%
Best 12.75
Draw
16%
Best 6.22
Away Win · BEN
79%
Best 1.22
Value pick
Under 2.5
@ 2.55
Fair odds
2.29
book 2.55 · +11.2% vs market
Bookmakers polled
4
distinct bookmakers
Pick confidence
Medium
p 44% · EV +11.2%

Value pick isn't the most likely outcome — Over 2.5 is more likely (56%), but Under 2.5 is priced above the model's fair odds.

Match predictions

Simple model predictions for the main markets. Advanced model details are available below.

Most likely outcomes show what the model expects to happen. A betting pick also considers bookmaker prices, so it can differ from the most likely outcome.

Estimated probability — model's view. Implied probability — back-solved from the best book price. Bet quality: High Medium Low
FT Results 3 markets
✓ Draw
Probability 16%
Odds 6.60
Show model details
Implied probability 15.2%
Bet quality Medium
✓ Away Win Top pick
Probability 79.1%
Odds 1.25
Show model details
Implied probability 80%
Bet quality Medium
✓ Home Win
Probability 4.9%
Odds 15.00
Show model details
Implied probability 6.7%
Bet quality Low
Totals 8 markets
✓ Under 3.5 Value pick
Probability 65.1%
Odds 1.66
Show model details
Implied probability 60.2%
Bet quality High
✓ Under 2.5
Probability 43.6%
Odds 2.55
Show model details
Implied probability 39.2%
Bet quality Medium
✓ Over 3.5
Probability 34.9%
Odds 2.38
Show model details
Implied probability 42%
Bet quality Low
✓ Under 1.5
Probability 21%
Odds 5.50
Show model details
Implied probability 18.2%
Bet quality Medium
✓ Over 2.5
Probability 56.4%
Odds 1.57
Show model details
Implied probability 63.7%
Bet quality Low
✓ Under 0.5
Probability 6%
Odds 18.00
Show model details
Implied probability 5.6%
Bet quality Low
✓ Over 0.5 Best in group
Probability 94%
Odds 1.04
Show model details
Implied probability 96.2%
Bet quality Low
✓ Over 1.5
Probability 79%
Odds 1.18
Show model details
Implied probability 84.8%
Bet quality Low
BTTS 2 markets
✓ BTTS Yes
Probability 46.1%
Odds 2.12
Show model details
Implied probability 47.2%
Bet quality Low
✓ BTTS No Best in group
Probability 53.9%
Odds 1.80
Show model details
Implied probability 55.6%
Bet quality Low
Asian Handicap 2 markets
✓ AH Away 0 Top pick
Probability 79.1%
Odds 1.02
Show model details
Implied probability 98%
Bet quality Medium
✓ AH Home 0
Probability 4.9%
Odds 9.10
Show model details
Implied probability 11%
Bet quality Low
Other Markets 2 markets
✓ Double Chance X2 Top pick
Probability 95.2%
Odds 1.05
Show model details
Implied probability 95.2%
Bet quality Medium
✓ Double Chance 1X
Probability 20.9%
Odds 4.25
Show model details
Implied probability 23.5%
Bet quality Low

Predictions are model estimates based on data, not guaranteed outcomes. 18+ — please play responsibly.

Value pick of the night · Under 2.5
CAS – BEN @ 2.55
+11.2%
Edge
Forecast →