Match Casa Pia vs Benfica April 6, 2026 — Result and Stats on Prognosist

Post-match · 90 sec read

AI picks Under 3.5 at 1.66 — +8.0% better than the market.

Benfica enters this clash with clear quality superiority and recent strong form, holding a notable edge in attack and defense. Casa Pia's home momentum is moderate but faces a tough challenge against Benfica's high pressing and efficient offense. The tactical battle will likely see Benfica controlling tempo and exploiting defensive gaps, while Casa Pia may rely on set-pieces and compact blocking to contain the visitors.

Benfica's offensive pressure versus Casa Pia's defense
Home side's resilience and set-piece threat
Likely controlled pace favoring the away side

P Recap generated by AI · 6 markets graded

Pick of the night · settled · Under 3.5

Under 3.5 @ 1.66 ✓ Cashed

AI 65% Implied 60% +0.66u

+66%

ROI on stake

⛀ Lineups

CAS 3-4-3 · BEN 4-2-3-1

CAS · 3-4-3 4-2-3-1 · BEN

21 Morais

Subs used · CAS

46'

Osundina ↑ ·

Morais ↓

70'

Mendes ↑ ·

Cassiano ↓

87'

Conte ↑ ·

Rosas ↓

87'

Marques ↑ ·

Brito ↓

90+3'

Nsona ↑ ·

Livolant ↓

Subs used · BEN

58'

Prestianni ↑ ·

Lukebakio ↓

70'

Sudakov ↑ ·

Silva ↓

81'

Ivanovic ↑ ·

Bah ↓

81'

Anisio ↑ ·

Barrenechea ↓

📊 Statistics

CAS 1 – 1 BEN

22%

Possession (%)

78%

0.36

Expected Goals (xG) expected goals

1.67

Total Shots

Shots on Target

Shots off Target

Shots Inside Box

Corner Kicks

Offsides

Fouls

45%

Pass Accuracy (%)

86%

Yellow Cards

Goalkeeper Saves

⏱ Match events

12 · 1 – 1

Half-time · 0 – 0

K. Osundina ↓ · T. Morais ↑

Substitution 1

⇄

46'

58'

⇄

G. Prestianni ↓ · D. Lukebakio ↑

Substitution 1

68'

⚽

R. Rios

Assist · A. Schjelderup · 0–1

C. Mendes ↓ · Cassiano ↑

Substitution 2

⇄

70'

⇄

G. Sudakov ↓ · Rafa Silva ↑

Substitution 2

R. Brito

1–1

⚽

78'

81'

⇄

F. Ivanovic ↓ · A. Bah ↑

Substitution 3

81'

⇄

Anisio ↓ · E. Barrenechea ↑

Substitution 4

Patrick Sequeira

Yellow Card

▮

85'

A. Conte ↓ · P. Rosas ↑

Substitution 3

⇄

87'

J. Marques ↓ · R. Brito ↑

Substitution 4

⇄

87'

K. Nsona ↓ · J. Livolant ↑

Substitution 5

⇄

90+3'

Full-time · 1 – 1

Match recap

Casa Pia and Benfica drew 1–1. At half-time it was 0–0.

In possession, the visitors ran the game with 78% of the ball. For accuracy, the visitors completed 86% of their passes. On the balance of chances, the visitors held the expected-goals edge, 1.67 to 0.36. In attack, the visitors carried the greater threat — 18 shots to 8, 3 on target. From set pieces, the visitors won the corner count, 12 to 3.

On the scoresheet: R. Rios (68'), R. Brito (78').

Model audit for this match: of 17 graded markets, 8 landed and 9 missed, for a net +3.45 units (Brier 0.244).

⚖ Bet recap · markets settled

17 · 8 W · 9 L

Market	Odds	Closed	AI	Result	P/L · 1u
Under 3.5	1.66	—	65%	Cashed	+0.66	Cashed
Under 2.5	2.55	—	44%	Cashed	+1.55	Cashed
BTTS Yes	2.12	—	46%	Cashed	+1.12	Cashed
BTTS No	1.80	—	54%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Over 3.5	2.38	—	35%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Under 1.5	5.50	—	21%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Draw	6.60	—	16%	Cashed	+5.60	Cashed
Double Chance X2	1.05	—	95%	Cashed	+0.05	Cashed
Away Win	1.25	—	79%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Over 2.5	1.57	—	56%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
AH Away 0	1.02	—	79%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Under 0.5	18.00	—	6%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Over 0.5	1.04	—	94%	Cashed	+0.04	Cashed
Over 1.5	1.18	—	79%	Cashed	+0.18	Cashed
Double Chance 1X	4.25	—	21%	Cashed	+3.25	Cashed
Home Win	15.00	—	5%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
AH Home 0	9.10	—	5%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Total · 17 markets @ 1u each	—	—	—	8 W · 9 L	+3.45u	+20% ROI