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⚽ Football 📈 Forecasts
Football Portugal Primeira Liga Casa Pia — Benfica

Match Casa Pia vs Benfica April 6, 2026

Portugal   /   Primeira Liga Value pick inside
Casa Pia
Casa Pia
Home · last 5 L W D D W
Kick-off
Mon 06 Apr · 19:45
1:1
Full-time
Benfica
Benfica
W W D D W Away · last 5
Estádio Municipal de Rio Maior · Rio Maior Referee Helder Filipe Claudio Carvalho, Portugal
Hit
Under 3.5
Under 3.5
AI 65% · book 1.66
Hit
Under 2.5
Under 2.5
AI 44% · book 2.55
Hit
BTTS Yes
BTTS Yes
AI 46% · book 2.12
Total goals
2
1 · 1
xG (open play)
0.36 – 1.67
Δ −1.31
Possession
22% – 78%
AI accuracy
8 / 17
picks cashed
Post-match · 90 sec read

AI picks Under 3.5 at 1.66 — +8.0% better than the market.

Benfica enters this clash with clear quality superiority and recent strong form, holding a notable edge in attack and defense. Casa Pia's home momentum is moderate but faces a tough challenge against Benfica's high pressing and efficient offense. The tactical battle will likely see Benfica controlling tempo and exploiting defensive gaps, while Casa Pia may rely on set-pieces and compact blocking to contain the visitors.

  • Benfica's offensive pressure versus Casa Pia's defense
  • Home side's resilience and set-piece threat
  • Likely controlled pace favoring the away side

P Recap generated by AI · 6 markets graded
Pick of the night · settled · Under 3.5
Under 3.5 @ 1.66 ✓ Cashed
AI 65% Implied 60% +0.66u
+66%
ROI on stake

Lineups

CAS 3-4-3 · BEN 4-2-3-1
Subs used · CAS
46' Osundina ↑ · Morais
70' Mendes ↑ · Cassiano
87' Conte ↑ · Rosas
87' Marques ↑ · Brito
90+3' Nsona ↑ · Livolant
Subs used · BEN
58' Prestianni ↑ · Lukebakio
70' Sudakov ↑ · Silva
81' Ivanovic ↑ · Bah
81' Anisio ↑ · Barrenechea

📊 Statistics

CAS 11 BEN
22%
Possession (%)
78%
0.36
Expected Goals (xG) expected goals
1.67
8
Total Shots
18
2
Shots on Target
3
3
Shots off Target
9
7
Shots Inside Box
12
3
Corner Kicks
12
0
Offsides
2
19
Fouls
10
45%
Pass Accuracy (%)
86%
1
Yellow Cards
0
2
Goalkeeper Saves
1

Match events

12 · 1 – 1
Half-time · 0 – 0
K. Osundina ↓ · T. Morais ↑
Substitution 1
46'
58'
G. Prestianni ↓ · D. Lukebakio ↑
Substitution 1
68'
R. Rios
Assist · A. Schjelderup · 0–1
C. Mendes ↓ · Cassiano ↑
Substitution 2
70'
70'
G. Sudakov ↓ · Rafa Silva ↑
Substitution 2
R. Brito
1–1
78'
81'
F. Ivanovic ↓ · A. Bah ↑
Substitution 3
81'
Anisio ↓ · E. Barrenechea ↑
Substitution 4
Patrick Sequeira
Yellow Card
85'
A. Conte ↓ · P. Rosas ↑
Substitution 3
87'
J. Marques ↓ · R. Brito ↑
Substitution 4
87'
K. Nsona ↓ · J. Livolant ↑
Substitution 5
90+3'
Full-time · 1 – 1

Bet recap · markets settled

17 · 8 W · 9 L
Market Odds Closed AI Result P/L · 1u
Under 3.5 1.66 65% Cashed +0.66 Cashed
Under 2.5 2.55 44% Cashed +1.55 Cashed
BTTS Yes 2.12 46% Cashed +1.12 Cashed
BTTS No 1.80 54% Lost −1.00 Miss
Over 3.5 2.38 35% Lost −1.00 Miss
Under 1.5 5.50 21% Lost −1.00 Miss
Draw 6.60 16% Cashed +5.60 Cashed
Double Chance X2 1.05 95% Cashed +0.05 Cashed
Away Win 1.25 79% Lost −1.00 Miss
Over 2.5 1.57 56% Lost −1.00 Miss
AH Away 0 1.02 79% Lost −1.00 Miss
Under 0.5 18.00 6% Lost −1.00 Miss
Over 0.5 1.04 94% Cashed +0.04 Cashed
Over 1.5 1.18 79% Cashed +0.18 Cashed
Double Chance 1X 4.25 21% Cashed +3.25 Cashed
Home Win 15.00 5% Lost −1.00 Miss
AH Home 0 9.10 5% Lost −1.00 Miss
Total · 17 markets @ 1u each 8 W · 9 L +3.45u +20% ROI
Best bet of the night · Under 3.5
CAS – BEN @ 1.66
+8.0%
Edge
Forecast →