Match Burnley vs Brentford February 28, 2026 — Result and Stats on Prognosist

Post-match · 90 sec read

Brentford arrives at Turf Moor with a clear quality edge and better recent form, suggesting they hold the upper hand. Their stronger attack faces a Burnley defense that has struggled to contain opponents, while Burnley’s home advantage is somewhat limited by their inconsistent results. Expect Brentford’s sharper offensive play and momentum to challenge Burnley’s compact block.

Brentford’s offensive edge against Burnley’s defense
Burnley’s home form lacks momentum
Moderate pace hinted by balanced goal market odds

P Recap generated by AI · 6 markets graded

⛀ Lineups

BUR 3-4-2-1 · BRE 4-2-3-1

BUR · 3-4-2-1 4-2-3-1 · BRE

19 Flemming ⚽

Subs used · BUR

46'

Ugochukwu ↑ ·

Laurent ↓

46'

Foster ↑ ·

Bruun Larsen ↓

75'

Florentino ↑ ·

Ward-Prowse ↓

84'

Tchaouna ↑ ·

Mejbri ↓

90+1'

Barnes ↑ ·

Flemming ↓

Subs used · BRE

72'

Lewis-Potter ↑ ·

Schade ↓

72'

Donovan ↑ ·

Ouattara ↓

73'

Henderson ↑ ·

Yarmolyuk ↓

📊 Statistics

BUR 3 – 4 BRE

41%

Possession (%)

59%

0.97

Expected Goals (xG) expected goals

1.94

Total Shots

Shots on Target

Shots off Target

Shots Inside Box

Corner Kicks

Offsides

Fouls

79%

Pass Accuracy (%)

81%

Yellow Cards

Goalkeeper Saves

⏱ Match events

19 · 3 – 4

-5'

▮

Yehor Yarmolyuk

Yellow Card

⚽

M. Damsgaard

Assist · D. Ouattara · 0–1

25'

⚽

I. Thiago

Assist · M. Damsgaard · 0–2

34'

⚽

K. Schade

0–3

M. Kayode

Own goal · 1–3

⚽

45'

Half-time · 1 – 3

L. Ugochukwu ↓ · J. Laurent ↑

Substitution 1

⇄

46'

L. Foster ↓ · J. Bruun Larsen ↑

Substitution 2

⇄

46'

J. Anthony

Assist · H. Mejbri · 2–3

⚽

47'

Z. Flemming

Assist · H. Mejbri · 3–3

⚽

60'

72'

⇄

K. Lewis-Potter ↓ · K. Schade ↑

Substitution 1

72'

⇄

R. Donovan ↓ · D. Ouattara ↑

Substitution 2

73'

⇄

J. Henderson ↓ · Y. Yarmolyuk ↑

Substitution 3

Florentino ↓ · J. Ward-Prowse ↑

Substitution 3

⇄

75'

77'

▮

Igor Thiago

Yellow Card

L. Tchaouna ↓ · H. Mejbri ↑

Substitution 4

⇄

84'

Bashir Humphreys

Yellow Card

▮

86'

90'

⚽

M. Damsgaard

Assist · R. Henry · 3–4

A. Barnes ↓ · Z. Flemming ↑

Substitution 5

⇄

90+1'

Lyle Foster

Yellow Card

▮

90+11'

Full-time · 3 – 4

Match recap

Brentford won 4–3 away at Burnley. At half-time it was 1–3.

In possession, the visitors ran the game with 59% of the ball. On the balance of chances, the visitors held the expected-goals edge, 1.94 to 0.97. In attack, the visitors carried the greater threat — 16 shots to 12, 7 on target. From set pieces, the visitors won the corner count, 8 to 4. In front of goal, the hosts were clinical, scoring 3 from 0.97 expected goals. For discipline, the referee produced 4 yellow cards.

On the scoresheet: M. Damsgaard (9'), I. Thiago (25'), K. Schade (34'), M. Kayode (45'), J. Anthony (47'), Z. Flemming (60'), M. Damsgaard (90').

Model audit for this match: of 17 graded markets, 8 landed and 9 missed, for a net -3.30 units (Brier 0.173).

⚖ Bet recap · markets settled

17 · 8 W · 9 L

Market	Odds	Closed	AI	Result	P/L · 1u
Away Win	1.79	—	62%	Cashed	+0.79	Cashed
Under 2.5	2.03	—	54%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
BTTS No	2.07	—	51%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Over 2.5	1.91	—	46%	Cashed	+0.91	Cashed
BTTS Yes	1.80	—	49%	Cashed	+0.80	Cashed
Double Chance 1X	2.17	—	38%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Under 1.5	4.00	—	28%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Double Chance X2	1.23	—	85%	Cashed	+0.23	Cashed
AH Away 0	1.38	—	62%	Cashed	+0.38	Cashed
Under 0.5	12.80	—	9%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Under 3.5	1.39	—	75%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Over 0.5	1.06	—	91%	Cashed	+0.06	Cashed
Draw	4.04	—	23%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Over 1.5	1.28	—	72%	Cashed	+0.28	Cashed
Over 3.5	3.25	—	25%	Cashed	+2.25	Cashed
Home Win	5.00	—	15%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
AH Home 0	3.57	—	15%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Total · 17 markets @ 1u each	—	—	—	8 W · 9 L	−3.30u	−19% ROI