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Home › Portugal › Primeira Liga › Arouca — Benfica

Arouca vs Benfica 1:2: Match Review & Stats

Portugal   /   Primeira Liga Value pick inside
Arouca
Arouca
Home · last 5 W L D W W
Kick-off
Sat 14 Mar · 20:30
1:2
Full-time
Benfica
Benfica
W W D D W Away · last 5
Estádio Municipal de Arouca · Aruca Referee Jose Bessa, Portugal
Miss
Under 2.5
Under 2.5
AI 44% · book 2.36 ✗
Hit
BTTS Yes
BTTS Yes
AI 46% · book 2.18 ✓
Hit
Over 2.5
Over 2.5
AI 56% · book 1.65 ✓
Total goals
3
1 · 2
xG (open play)
2.50 – 2.09
Δ +0.41
Possession
39% – 61%
AI accuracy
8 / 17
picks cashed

Model verdict

Post-match · 90 sec read

AI picks Under 2.5 at 2.36 — +3.9% better than the market.

Benfica arrives as a clear favorite with a significant quality edge and a strong attacking profile against Arouca's defense. Despite Arouca's decent recent form, Benfica's superior firepower and experience on the road suggest they will control the game tempo. The home side's defensive solidity might limit the goal count, hinting at a balanced contest with Benfica pressing for a win.

  • Benfica's attacking threat vs Arouca's defense
  • Home momentum for Arouca but limited quality gap
  • Moderate pace expected, favoring structured play

P Recap generated by AI · 6 markets graded
Pick of the night · settled · Under 2.5
Under 2.5 @ 2.36 ✗ Lost
AI 44% Implied 42% −1.00u
−100%
ROI on stake

Lineups

ARO 4-2-3-1 · BEN 4-2-3-1
ARO · 4-2-3-1 4-2-3-1 · BEN 12 Arruabarrena 6 Monteiro 15 Sánchez 3 Fontán 25 Kuipers 22 Ee 21 Fukui 19 Trezza 14 Lee 7 Djouahra 17 Barbero ⚽ 1 Trubin 6 Bah 44 Araújo 4 Silva 26 Dahl 18 Barreiro 20 Ríos ⚽ 11 Lukebakio 27 Silva 21 Schjelderup 14 Pavlidis
Subs used · ARO
70' Gozalbez ↑ · Lee ↓
75' Puche ↑ · Djouahra ↓
75' Silva ↑ · Monteiro ↓
79' Popovic ↑ · Sanchez ↓
79' Nandin ↑ · Barbero ↓
Subs used · BEN
73' Dedic ↑ · Bah ↓
73' Sudakov ↑ · Silva ↓
74' Ivanovic ↑ · Silva ↓
74' Prestianni ↑ · Lukebakio ↓
85' Anisio ↑ · Schjelderup ↓

Statistics

ARO 1 – 2 BEN
39%
Possession (%)
61%
2.50
Expected Goals (xG) expected goals
2.09
12
Total Shots
22
6
Shots on Target
5
3
Shots off Target
9
10
Shots Inside Box
17
2
Corner Kicks
15
0
Offsides
5
17
Fouls
11
76%
Pass Accuracy (%)
84%
5
Yellow Cards
6
3
Goalkeeper Saves
5

Match events

26 · 1 – 2
I. Barbero (P)
Penalty · 1–0
⚽
7'
Javi Sánchez
Yellow Card
▮
22'
Ivan Barbero
Yellow Card
▮
45+3'
Half-time · 1 – 0
Hyun-ju Lee
Yellow Card
▮
48'
50'
⚽
R. Rios
Assist · A. Schjelderup · 1–1
59'
▮
Richard Ríos
Yellow Card
59'
▮
António Silva
Yellow Card
P. Gozalbez ↓ · H. Lee ↑
Substitution 1
⇄
70'
73'
⇄
A. Dedic ↓ · A. Bah ↑
Substitution 1
73'
⇄
G. Sudakov ↓ · Rafa Silva ↑
Substitution 2
74'
⇄
F. Ivanovic ↓ · A. Silva ↑
Substitution 3
74'
⇄
G. Prestianni ↓ · D. Lukebakio ↑
Substitution 4
Puche ↓ · N. Djouahra ↑
Substitution 2
⇄
75'
J. Silva ↓ · D. Monteiro ↑
Substitution 3
⇄
75'
Pablo Gozálbez
Yellow Card
▮
77'
B. Popovic ↓ · J. Sanchez ↑
Substitution 4
⇄
79'
D. Nandin ↓ · I. Barbero ↑
Substitution 5
⇄
79'
Ignacio de Arruabarrena
Yellow Card
▮
80'
85'
⇄
Anisio ↓ · A. Schjelderup ↑
Substitution 5
90'
⚽
F. Ivanovic
Assist · G. Prestianni · 1–2
Alfonso Trezza
Red Card
▮
90+8'
90+8'
▮
Tomás Araújo
Yellow Card
90+8'
▮
Amar Dedić
Red Card
90+9'
▮
Vangelis Pavlidis
Yellow Card
90+11'
▮
Gianluca Prestianni
Yellow Card
90+11'
▮
Anatoliy Trubin
Yellow Card
Full-time · 1 – 2

Match recap

Benfica won 2–1 away at Arouca. At half-time it was 1–0.

In possession, the visitors ran the game with 61% of the ball. For accuracy, the visitors completed 84% of their passes. In attack, the visitors carried the greater threat — 22 shots to 12, 5 on target. From set pieces, the visitors won the corner count, 15 to 2. At the back, the visitors leaned on their goalkeeper for 5 saves. For discipline, the referee produced 11 yellow cards.

On the scoresheet: I. Barbero (7'), R. Rios (50'), F. Ivanovic (90'). Alfonso Trezza was sent off in the 90+8' minute. Amar Dedić was sent off in the 90+8' minute.

Model audit for this match: of 17 graded markets, 8 landed and 9 missed, for a net -5.98 units (Brier 0.088).

Bet recap · markets settled

17 · 8 W · 9 L
Market Odds Closed AI Result P/L · 1u
Under 2.5 2.36 — 44% Lost −1.00 Miss
BTTS Yes 2.18 — 46% Cashed +1.18 Cashed
Over 2.5 1.65 — 56% Cashed +0.65 Cashed
BTTS No 1.72 — 54% Lost −1.00 Miss
Over 3.5 2.55 — 34% Lost −1.00 Miss
Under 3.5 1.55 — 66% Cashed +0.55 Cashed
Double Chance X2 1.07 — 94% Cashed +0.07 Cashed
Away Win 1.29 — 77% Cashed +0.29 Cashed
AH Away 0 1.03 — 77% Cashed +0.03 Cashed
Draw 6.01 — 17% Lost −1.00 Miss
Under 1.5 4.52 — 22% Lost −1.00 Miss
Over 0.5 1.04 — 94% Cashed +0.04 Cashed
Under 0.5 15.00 — 6% Lost −1.00 Miss
Over 1.5 1.21 — 78% Cashed +0.21 Cashed
Double Chance 1X 4.00 — 23% Lost −1.00 Miss
Home Win 12.50 — 6% Lost −1.00 Miss
AH Home 0 8.10 — 6% Lost −1.00 Miss
Total · 17 markets @ 1u each — — — 8 W · 9 L −5.98u −35% ROI
Value pick of the night · Under 2.5
ARO – BEN @ 2.36
+3.9%
Edge
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