Match Arouca vs Benfica March 14, 2026 — Result and Stats on Prognosist

Post-match · 90 sec read

Benfica arrives as a clear favorite with a significant quality edge and a strong attacking profile against Arouca's defense. Despite Arouca's decent recent form, Benfica's superior firepower and experience on the road suggest they will control the game tempo. The home side's defensive solidity might limit the goal count, hinting at a balanced contest with Benfica pressing for a win.

Benfica's attacking threat vs Arouca's defense
Home momentum for Arouca but limited quality gap
Moderate pace expected, favoring structured play

P Recap generated by AI · 6 markets graded

⛀ Lineups

ARO 4-2-3-1 · BEN 4-2-3-1

ARO · 4-2-3-1 4-2-3-1 · BEN

17 Barbero ⚽

Subs used · ARO

70'

Gozalbez ↑ ·

Lee ↓

75'

Puche ↑ ·

Djouahra ↓

75'

Silva ↑ ·

Monteiro ↓

79'

Popovic ↑ ·

Sanchez ↓

79'

Nandin ↑ ·

Barbero ↓

Subs used · BEN

73'

Dedic ↑ ·

Bah ↓

73'

Sudakov ↑ ·

Silva ↓

74'

Ivanovic ↑ ·

Silva ↓

74'

Prestianni ↑ ·

Lukebakio ↓

85'

Anisio ↑ ·

Schjelderup ↓

📊 Statistics

ARO 1 – 2 BEN

39%

Possession (%)

61%

2.50

Expected Goals (xG) expected goals

2.09

Total Shots

Shots on Target

Shots off Target

Shots Inside Box

Corner Kicks

Offsides

Fouls

76%

Pass Accuracy (%)

84%

Yellow Cards

Goalkeeper Saves

⏱ Match events

26 · 1 – 2

I. Barbero (P)

Penalty · 1–0

⚽

Javi Sánchez

Yellow Card

▮

22'

Ivan Barbero

Yellow Card

▮

45+3'

Half-time · 1 – 0

Hyun-ju Lee

Yellow Card

▮

48'

50'

⚽

R. Rios

Assist · A. Schjelderup · 1–1

59'

▮

Richard Ríos

Yellow Card

59'

▮

António Silva

Yellow Card

P. Gozalbez ↓ · H. Lee ↑

Substitution 1

⇄

70'

73'

⇄

A. Dedic ↓ · A. Bah ↑

Substitution 1

73'

⇄

G. Sudakov ↓ · Rafa Silva ↑

Substitution 2

74'

⇄

F. Ivanovic ↓ · A. Silva ↑

Substitution 3

74'

⇄

G. Prestianni ↓ · D. Lukebakio ↑

Substitution 4

Puche ↓ · N. Djouahra ↑

Substitution 2

⇄

75'

J. Silva ↓ · D. Monteiro ↑

Substitution 3

⇄

75'

Pablo Gozálbez

Yellow Card

▮

77'

B. Popovic ↓ · J. Sanchez ↑

Substitution 4

⇄

79'

D. Nandin ↓ · I. Barbero ↑

Substitution 5

⇄

79'

Ignacio de Arruabarrena

Yellow Card

▮

80'

85'

⇄

Anisio ↓ · A. Schjelderup ↑

Substitution 5

90'

⚽

F. Ivanovic

Assist · G. Prestianni · 1–2

Alfonso Trezza

Red Card

▮

90+8'

▮

Tomás Araújo

Yellow Card

90+8'

▮

Amar Dedić

Red Card

90+9'

▮

Vangelis Pavlidis

Yellow Card

90+11'

▮

Gianluca Prestianni

Yellow Card

90+11'

▮

Anatoliy Trubin

Yellow Card

Full-time · 1 – 2

Match recap

Benfica won 2–1 away at Arouca. At half-time it was 1–0.

In possession, the visitors ran the game with 61% of the ball. For accuracy, the visitors completed 84% of their passes. In attack, the visitors carried the greater threat — 22 shots to 12, 5 on target. From set pieces, the visitors won the corner count, 15 to 2. At the back, the visitors leaned on their goalkeeper for 5 saves. For discipline, the referee produced 11 yellow cards.

On the scoresheet: I. Barbero (7'), R. Rios (50'), F. Ivanovic (90'). Alfonso Trezza was sent off in the 90+8' minute. Amar Dedić was sent off in the 90+8' minute.

Model audit for this match: of 17 graded markets, 8 landed and 9 missed, for a net -5.98 units (Brier 0.088).

⚖ Bet recap · markets settled

17 · 8 W · 9 L

Market	Odds	Closed	AI	Result	P/L · 1u
Under 2.5	2.36	—	44%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
BTTS Yes	2.18	—	46%	Cashed	+1.18	Cashed
Over 2.5	1.65	—	56%	Cashed	+0.65	Cashed
BTTS No	1.72	—	54%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Over 3.5	2.55	—	34%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Under 3.5	1.55	—	66%	Cashed	+0.55	Cashed
Double Chance X2	1.07	—	94%	Cashed	+0.07	Cashed
Away Win	1.29	—	77%	Cashed	+0.29	Cashed
AH Away 0	1.03	—	77%	Cashed	+0.03	Cashed
Draw	6.01	—	17%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Under 1.5	4.52	—	22%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Over 0.5	1.04	—	94%	Cashed	+0.04	Cashed
Under 0.5	15.00	—	6%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Over 1.5	1.21	—	78%	Cashed	+0.21	Cashed
Double Chance 1X	4.00	—	23%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Home Win	12.50	—	6%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
AH Home 0	8.10	—	6%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Total · 17 markets @ 1u each	—	—	—	8 W · 9 L	−5.98u	−35% ROI