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Home Portugal Primeira Liga Famalicao — Arouca

Predictions Famalicao vs Arouca March 6, 2026 — Predictions and Probabilities

Portugal   /   Primeira Liga Value pick inside
Famalicao
Famalicao
Home · last 5 D W D D W
Kick-off
Fri 06 Mar · 20:15
1:0
Full-time
Arouca
Arouca
W L D W W Away · last 5
Estádio Municipal 22 de Junho · Vila Nova de Famalicão Referee Antonio Nobre, Portugal
Home Win · FAM
60%
Best 1.67
Draw
24%
Best 3.73
Away Win · ARO
16%
Best 5.05
Value pick
Under 1.5
@ 3.65
Fair odds
3.27
book 3.65 · +11.7% vs market
Bookmakers polled
4
distinct bookmakers
Pick confidence
Medium
p 31% · EV +11.7%

Value pick isn't the most likely outcome — Over 1.5 is more likely (69%), but Under 1.5 is priced above the model's fair odds.

Match predictions

Simple model predictions for the main markets. Advanced model details are available below.

Most likely outcomes show what the model expects to happen. A betting pick also considers bookmaker prices, so it can differ from the most likely outcome.

Estimated probability — model's view. Implied probability — back-solved from the best book price. Bet quality: High Medium Low
FT Results 3 markets
Home Win Top pick
Probability 59.9%
Odds 1.85
Show model details
Implied probability 54.1%
Bet quality High
Draw
Probability 24.3%
Odds 3.75
Show model details
Implied probability 26.7%
Bet quality Low
Away Win
Probability 15.8%
Odds 4.60
Show model details
Implied probability 21.7%
Bet quality Low
Totals 8 markets
Under 2.5 Value pick
Probability 56.3%
Odds 1.92
Show model details
Implied probability 52.1%
Bet quality High
Over 2.5
Probability 43.7%
Odds 2.00
Show model details
Implied probability 50%
Bet quality Low
Under 1.5
Probability 30.6%
Odds 3.65
Show model details
Implied probability 27.4%
Bet quality Medium
Under 0.5
Probability 9.7%
Odds 11.00
Show model details
Implied probability 9.1%
Bet quality Low
Under 3.5
Probability 76.7%
Odds 1.34
Show model details
Implied probability 74.6%
Bet quality Low
Over 0.5 Best in group
Probability 90.3%
Odds 1.07
Show model details
Implied probability 93.5%
Bet quality Low
Over 1.5
Probability 69.4%
Odds 1.32
Show model details
Implied probability 75.8%
Bet quality Low
Over 3.5
Probability 23.3%
Odds 3.45
Show model details
Implied probability 29%
Bet quality Low
BTTS 2 markets
BTTS No Top pick
Probability 54%
Odds 1.98
Show model details
Implied probability 50.5%
Bet quality Medium
BTTS Yes
Probability 46%
Odds 1.87
Show model details
Implied probability 53.5%
Bet quality Low
Asian Handicap 2 markets
AH Home 0 Top pick
Probability 59.9%
Odds 1.35
Show model details
Implied probability 74.1%
Bet quality Medium
AH Away 0
Probability 15.8%
Odds 3.36
Show model details
Implied probability 29.8%
Bet quality Low
Other Markets 2 markets
Double Chance X2
Probability 40.1%
Odds 2.06
Show model details
Implied probability 48.5%
Bet quality Low
Double Chance 1X Top pick
Probability 84.2%
Odds 1.23
Show model details
Implied probability 81.3%
Bet quality Medium

Predictions are model estimates based on data, not guaranteed outcomes. 18+ — please play responsibly.

Value pick of the night · Under 1.5
FAM – ARO @ 3.65
+11.7%
Edge
Forecast →