Match Famalicao vs Arouca March 6, 2026 — Result and Stats on Prognosist

Post-match · 90 sec read

AI picks Under 1.5 at 3.65 — +11.7% better than the market.

Famalicao arrives with clear home momentum, boasting a stronger overall quality and a notable edge in defensive solidity. Their recent form shows resilience, while Arouca’s attack faces a tough test against a compact home defense. The pace is likely moderate, with a balanced goal environment suggested by odds. Expect a tactical battle where Famalicao’s home comfort and defensive discipline could limit Arouca’s chances.

Home defensive strength vs away attack
Recent form favors Famalicao
Moderate tempo with controlled chances

P Recap generated by AI · 6 markets graded

Pick of the night · settled · Under 1.5

Under 1.5 @ 3.65 ✓ Cashed

AI 31% Implied 27% +2.65u

+265%

ROI on stake

⛀ Lineups

FAM 4-2-3-1 · ARO 4-2-3-1

FAM · 4-2-3-1 4-2-3-1 · ARO

12 Elisor

Subs used · FAM

66'

Santos ↑ ·

Pena ↓

66'

Beney ↑ ·

Dias ↓

66'

Abubakar ↑ ·

Elisor ↓

89'

Realpe ↑ ·

Joujou ↓

Subs used · ARO

61'

Nandin ↑ ·

Barbero ↓

75'

Gozalbez ↑ ·

Trezza ↓

83'

Puche ↑ ·

Lee ↓

83'

Dante ↑ ·

Kuipers ↓

83'

Silva ↑ ·

Monteiro ↓

📊 Statistics

FAM 1 – 0 ARO

55%

Possession (%)

45%

1.02

Expected Goals (xG) expected goals

0.81

Total Shots

Shots on Target

Shots off Target

Shots Inside Box

Corner Kicks

Offsides

Fouls

85%

Pass Accuracy (%)

85%

Yellow Cards

Goalkeeper Saves

⏱ Match events

12 · 1 – 0

Half-time · 0 – 0

51'

▮

Ivan Barbero

Yellow Card

61'

⇄

D. Nandin ↓ · I. Barbero ↑

Substitution 1

P. Santos ↓ · M. Pena ↑

Substitution 1

⇄

66'

R. Beney ↓ · Gil Dias ↑

Substitution 2

⇄

66'

U. Abubakar ↓ · S. Elisor ↑

Substitution 3

⇄

66'

75'

⇄

P. Gozalbez ↓ · A. Trezza ↑

Substitution 2

R. Pinheiro

1–0

⚽

82'

83'

⇄

Puche ↓ · H. Lee ↑

Substitution 3

83'

⇄

A. Dante ↓ · B. Kuipers ↑

Substitution 4

83'

⇄

J. Silva ↓ · D. Monteiro ↑

Substitution 5

Mathias De Amorim

Yellow Card

▮

84'

L. Realpe ↓ · A. Joujou ↑

Substitution 4

⇄

89'

Full-time · 1 – 0

Match recap

Famalicao beat Arouca 1–0 at home. At half-time it was 0–0.

In possession, the hosts ran the game with 55% of the ball. From set pieces, the hosts won the corner count, 5 to 1.

On the scoresheet: R. Pinheiro (82').

Model audit for this match: of 17 graded markets, 8 landed and 9 missed, for a net -2.61 units (Brier 0.148).

⚖ Bet recap · markets settled

17 · 8 W · 9 L

Market	Odds	Closed	AI	Result	P/L · 1u
Home Win	1.85	—	60%	Cashed	+0.85	Cashed
Under 2.5	1.92	—	56%	Cashed	+0.92	Cashed
BTTS No	1.98	—	54%	Cashed	+0.98	Cashed
Over 2.5	2.00	—	44%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
BTTS Yes	1.87	—	46%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Double Chance X2	2.06	—	40%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Under 1.5	3.65	—	31%	Cashed	+2.65	Cashed
Double Chance 1X	1.23	—	84%	Cashed	+0.23	Cashed
AH Home 0	1.35	—	60%	Cashed	+0.35	Cashed
Under 0.5	11.00	—	10%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Under 3.5	1.34	—	77%	Cashed	+0.34	Cashed
Over 0.5	1.07	—	90%	Cashed	+0.07	Cashed
Over 1.5	1.32	—	69%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Draw	3.75	—	24%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Over 3.5	3.45	—	23%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Away Win	4.60	—	16%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
AH Away 0	3.36	—	16%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Total · 17 markets @ 1u each	—	—	—	8 W · 9 L	−2.61u	−15% ROI