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Home › Portugal › Primeira Liga › Tondela — Rio Ave

Tondela vs Rio Ave 0:1: Match Review & Stats

Portugal   /   Primeira Liga Value pick inside
Tondela
Tondela
Home · last 5 L D W W L
Kick-off
Mon 09 Mar · 20:15
0:1
Full-time
Rio Ave
Rio Ave
D L D L D Away · last 5
Estádio João Cardoso · Tondela Referee Helder Malheiro, Portugal
Hit
BTTS No
BTTS No
AI 58% · book 1.99 ✓
Hit
Under 2.5
Under 2.5
AI 63% · book 1.80 ✓
Hit
Double Chance X2
Double Chance X2
AI 62% · book 1.78 ✓
Total goals
1
0 · 1
xG (open play)
0.50 – 1.23
Δ −0.73
Possession
47% – 53%
AI accuracy
8 / 17
picks cashed

Model verdict

Post-match · 90 sec read

AI picks Under 2.5 at 1.80 — +13.1% better than the market.

Tondela hosts Rio Ave in a clash where home momentum contrasts with away quality. Tondela's solid defensive shape and recent unbeaten run give them a pressing edge, while Rio Ave's slightly better overall strength and offensive balance suggest a tactical battle. The home side's ability to stifle attacks meets Rio Ave's moderate attacking threat, hinting at a compact, low-scoring affair.

  • Tondela's home resilience vs Rio Ave's balanced offense
  • Recent form favors Tondela's momentum
  • Odds suggest a cautious pace with under 2.5 goals likely

P Recap generated by AI · 6 markets graded
Pick of the night · settled · Under 2.5
Under 2.5 @ 1.80 ✓ Cashed
AI 63% Implied 56% +0.80u
+80%
ROI on stake

Lineups

TON 3-4-2-1 · RIO 4-2-3-1
TON · 3-4-2-1 4-2-3-1 · RIO 31 Fontes 44 Silva 4 Marques 20 Medina 2 Bebeto 10 Hodge 32 Rodríguez 27 Conceição 7 Maranhão 90 Aïko 23 Mbunga-Kimpioka 99 Gouw 17 Vrousai 32 Brabec 39 Mancha 6 Abbey 44 Nikitscher 5 Ndoj 7 Bezerra 80 Pohlmann 18 Špikić 11 Blesa ⚽
Subs used · TON
62' Sithole ↑ · Rodriguez ↓
74' Tavares ↑ · Marques ↓
75' Siebatcheu ↑ · Hodge ↓
81' Manso ↑ · Aiko ↓
81' Ouattara ↑ · Bebeto ↓
Subs used · RIO
60' Guilherme ↑ · Ntoi ↓
72' Tome ↑ · Pohlmann ↓
72' Monteiro ↑ · Spikic ↓
89' Buta ↑ · Abbey ↓
89' Petrasso ↑ · Blesa ↓

Statistics

TON 0 – 1 RIO
47%
Possession (%)
53%
0.50
Expected Goals (xG) expected goals
1.23
6
Total Shots
9
2
Shots on Target
2
3
Shots off Target
5
5
Shots Inside Box
7
3
Corner Kicks
2
0
Offsides
1
15
Fouls
14
79%
Pass Accuracy (%)
84%
0
Yellow Cards
5
1
Goalkeeper Saves
2

Match events

16 · 0 – 1
29'
▮
Andreas Ndoj
Yellow Card
35'
▮
Marios Vrousai
Yellow Card
Half-time · 0 – 0
60'
⇄
Ryan Guilherme ↓ · A. Ntoi ↑
Substitution 1
S. Sithole ↓ · J. Rodriguez ↑
Substitution 1
⇄
62'
70'
⚽
J. Blesa
Assist · D. Spikic · 0–1
72'
⇄
J. Tome ↓ · O. Pohlmann ↑
Substitution 2
72'
⇄
T. Monteiro ↓ · D. Spikic ↑
Substitution 3
H. Tavares ↓ · C. Marques ↑
Substitution 2
⇄
74'
J. Siebatcheu ↓ · J. Hodge ↑
Substitution 3
⇄
75'
T. Manso ↓ · M. Aiko ↑
Substitution 4
⇄
81'
M. Ouattara ↓ · Bebeto ↑
Substitution 5
⇄
81'
87'
▮
Nelson Abbey
Yellow Card
89'
⇄
L. Buta ↓ · N. Abbey ↑
Substitution 4
89'
⇄
F. Petrasso ↓ · J. Blesa ↑
Substitution 5
90+4'
▮
Gustavo Mancha
Yellow Card
90+4'
▮
Diogo Bezerra
Yellow Card
Full-time · 0 – 1

Match recap

Rio Ave won 1–0 away at Tondela. At half-time it was 0–0.

On the balance of chances, the visitors held the expected-goals edge, 1.23 to 0.50. For discipline, the referee produced 5 yellow cards.

On the scoresheet: J. Blesa (70').

Model audit for this match: of 17 graded markets, 8 landed and 9 missed, for a net +0.77 units (Brier 0.196).

Bet recap · markets settled

17 · 8 W · 9 L
Market Odds Closed AI Result P/L · 1u
BTTS No 1.99 — 58% Cashed +0.99 Cashed
Under 2.5 1.80 — 63% Cashed +0.80 Cashed
Double Chance X2 1.78 — 62% Cashed +0.78 Cashed
AH Away 0 2.73 — 34% Cashed +1.73 Cashed
Home Win 2.14 — 38% Lost −1.00 Miss
BTTS Yes 1.87 — 42% Lost −1.00 Miss
Over 2.5 2.11 — 37% Lost −1.00 Miss
Away Win 3.81 — 34% Cashed +2.81 Cashed
Under 1.5 3.28 — 37% Cashed +2.28 Cashed
Under 0.5 9.00 — 13% Lost −1.00 Miss
Under 3.5 1.30 — 81% Cashed +0.30 Cashed
Double Chance 1X 1.29 — 66% Lost −1.00 Miss
Over 0.5 1.08 — 87% Cashed +0.08 Cashed
Draw 3.34 — 27% Lost −1.00 Miss
AH Home 0 1.50 — 38% Lost −1.00 Miss
Over 1.5 1.36 — 63% Lost −1.00 Miss
Over 3.5 3.70 — 19% Lost −1.00 Miss
Total · 17 markets @ 1u each — — — 8 W · 9 L +0.77u +5% ROI
Value pick of the night · Under 2.5
TON – RIO @ 1.80
+13.1%
Edge
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