P
Prognosist
P
Home › Portugal › Primeira Liga › Moreirense — Nacional

Predictions by Market: Moreirense vs Nacional

Portugal   /   Primeira Liga Value pick inside
Moreirense
Moreirense
Home · last 5 W L W L D
Kick-off
Sat 07 Mar · 15:30
1:1
Full-time
Nacional
Nacional
W W L L W Away · last 5
Parque Joaquim Almeida Freitas · Guimarães Referee Marcio Torres, Portugal

Outcome probabilities

Home Win · MOR
50%
Best 2.38
Draw
27%
Best 3.10
Away Win · NAC
23%
Best 3.10
Value pick
Under 1.5
@ 3.15
Fair odds
2.89
book 3.15 · +8.9% vs market
Bookmakers polled
4
distinct bookmakers
Pick confidence
Medium
p 35% · EV +8.9%

Value pick isn't the most likely outcome — Over 1.5 is more likely (65%), but Under 1.5 is priced above the model's fair odds.

Match predictions

Simple model predictions for the main markets. Advanced model details are available below.

Most likely outcomes show what the model expects to happen. A betting pick also considers bookmaker prices, so it can differ from the most likely outcome.

Estimated probability — model's view. Implied probability — back-solved from the best book price. Bet quality: High Medium Low
FT Results 3 markets
✓ Home Win Best in group
Probability 49.7%
Odds 2.42
Show model details
Implied probability 41.3%
Bet quality Medium
✓ Draw
Probability 27.4%
Odds 3.35
Show model details
Implied probability 29.9%
Bet quality Low
✓ Away Win
Probability 23%
Odds 3.25
Show model details
Implied probability 30.8%
Bet quality Low
Totals 8 markets
✓ Under 2.5
Probability 60.7%
Odds 1.75
Show model details
Implied probability 57.1%
Bet quality Medium
✓ Over 2.5
Probability 39.3%
Odds 2.19
Show model details
Implied probability 45.7%
Bet quality Low
✓ Under 1.5
Probability 34.6%
Odds 3.15
Show model details
Implied probability 31.8%
Bet quality Medium
✓ Under 3.5
Probability 79.7%
Odds 1.28
Show model details
Implied probability 78.1%
Bet quality Low
✓ Under 0.5
Probability 11.9%
Odds 8.50
Show model details
Implied probability 11.8%
Bet quality Low
✓ Over 0.5 Best in group
Probability 88.1%
Odds 1.09
Show model details
Implied probability 91.7%
Bet quality Low
✓ Over 1.5
Probability 65.4%
Odds 1.39
Show model details
Implied probability 71.9%
Bet quality Low
✓ Over 3.5
Probability 20.3%
Odds 3.85
Show model details
Implied probability 26%
Bet quality Low
BTTS 2 markets
✓ BTTS No Value pick
Probability 54.6%
Odds 1.98
Show model details
Implied probability 50.5%
Bet quality Medium
✓ BTTS Yes
Probability 45.4%
Odds 1.91
Show model details
Implied probability 52.4%
Bet quality Low
Asian Handicap 2 markets
✓ AH Home 0 Best in group
Probability 49.7%
Odds 1.72
Show model details
Implied probability 58.1%
Bet quality Low
✓ AH Away 0
Probability 23%
Odds 2.24
Show model details
Implied probability 44.6%
Bet quality Low
Other Markets 2 markets
✓ Double Chance X2
Probability 50.3%
Odds 1.61
Show model details
Implied probability 62.1%
Bet quality Low
✓ Double Chance 1X Top pick
Probability 77%
Odds 1.39
Show model details
Implied probability 71.9%
Bet quality High

Predictions are model estimates based on data, not guaranteed outcomes. 18+ — please play responsibly.

Value pick of the night · Under 1.5
MOR – NAC @ 3.15
+8.9%
Edge
Forecast →