Moreirense vs Nacional 1:1 — Match Review & Stats

Post-match · 90 sec read

AI picks Under 1.5 at 3.15 — +8.9% better than the market.

Moreirense holds a clear quality edge and home momentum, showing better recent form and defensive solidity. Their home defensive strength should challenge Nacional's slightly superior attack, suggesting a tactical battle with Moreirense likely to control the pace.

Home side's compact block limits Nacional's chances
Moreirense's recent wins boost confidence
Moderate goal environment hints at a tight contest

Expect a disciplined Moreirense to leverage their home edge, while Nacional may struggle to break through consistently, making a low-scoring game with a slight home advantage probable.

P Recap generated by AI · 6 markets graded

Pick of the night · settled · Under 1.5

Under 1.5 @ 3.15 ✗ Lost

AI 35% Implied 32% −1.00u

−100%

ROI on stake

Lineups

MOR 4-2-3-1 · NAC 4-2-3-1

MOR · 4-2-3-1 4-2-3-1 · NAC

9 Semedo ⚽

Subs used · MOR

64'

John ↑ ·

Rodri ↓

76'

Gower ↑ ·

Bondoso ↓

76'

Landerson ↑ ·

Alanzinho ↓

85'

Monteiro ↑ ·

Santos ↓

Subs used · NAC

69'

Ruan ↑ ·

Veron ↓

84'

Joao ↑ ·

Ramirez ↓

90'

Junior ↑ ·

Baeza ↓

Statistics

MOR 1 – 1 NAC

46%

Possession (%)

54%

0.94

Expected Goals (xG) expected goals

1.18

Total Shots

Shots on Target

Shots off Target

Shots Inside Box

Corner Kicks

Offsides

Fouls

80%

Pass Accuracy (%)

80%

Yellow Cards

Goalkeeper Saves

Match events

15 · 1 – 1

L. Semedo

Assist · Travassos · 1–0

⚽

45'

Half-time · 1 – 0

Diogo Travassos

Yellow Card

▮

48'

55'

▮

Léo Santos

Yellow Card

N. John ↓ · Rodri ↑

Substitution 1

⇄

64'

67'

⚽

M. Baeza

Assist · A. Nunez · 1–1

69'

⇄

Pablo Ruan ↓ · Gabriel Veron ↑

Substitution 1

Leandro Santos

Yellow Card

▮

70'

J. Gower ↓ · Kiko Bondoso ↑

Substitution 2

⇄

76'

Landerson ↓ · Alanzinho ↑

Substitution 3

⇄

76'

84'

⇄

L. Joao ↓ · J. Ramirez ↑

Substitution 2

Kevyn Monteiro ↓ · L. Santos ↑

Substitution 4

⇄

85'

90'

⇄

Daniel Junior ↓ · M. Baeza ↑

Substitution 3

Nile John

Yellow Card

▮

90+3'

▮

Liziero

Yellow Card

Gilberto Batista

Yellow Card

▮

90+5'

Full-time · 1 – 1

Match recap

Moreirense and Nacional drew 1–1. At half-time it was 1–0.

In attack, the visitors carried the greater threat — 20 shots to 7, 7 on target. From set pieces, the visitors won the corner count, 7 to 4. At the back, the hosts leaned on their goalkeeper for 6 saves. For discipline, the referee produced 6 yellow cards.

On the scoresheet: L. Semedo (45'), M. Baeza (67').

Model audit for this match: of 17 graded markets, 8 landed and 9 missed, for a net -3.23 units (Brier 0.158).

Bet recap · markets settled

17 · 8 W · 9 L

Market	Odds	Closed	AI	Result	P/L · 1u
Home Win	2.42	—	50%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
BTTS No	1.98	—	55%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Under 2.5	1.75	—	61%	Cashed	+0.75	Cashed
BTTS Yes	1.91	—	45%	Cashed	+0.91	Cashed
Over 2.5	2.19	—	39%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
AH Home 0	1.72	—	50%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Double Chance X2	1.61	—	50%	Cashed	+0.61	Cashed
AH Away 0	2.24	—	23%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Under 1.5	3.15	—	35%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Double Chance 1X	1.39	—	77%	Cashed	+0.39	Cashed
Under 3.5	1.28	—	80%	Cashed	+0.28	Cashed
Under 0.5	8.50	—	12%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Over 0.5	1.09	—	88%	Cashed	+0.09	Cashed
Draw	3.35	—	27%	Cashed	+2.35	Cashed
Over 1.5	1.39	—	65%	Cashed	+0.39	Cashed
Over 3.5	3.85	—	20%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Away Win	3.25	—	23%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Total · 17 markets @ 1u each	—	—	—	8 W · 9 L	−3.23u	−19% ROI

Moreirense vs Nacional 1:1: Match Review & Stats

Model verdict

⛀ Lineups

📊 Statistics

⏱ Match events

Match recap

⚖ Bet recap · markets settled

Lineups

Statistics

Match events

Bet recap · markets settled