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Home Portugal Primeira Liga Arouca — Nacional

Predictions Arouca vs Nacional February 21, 2026 — Predictions and Probabilities

Portugal   /   Primeira Liga Value pick inside
Arouca
Arouca
Home · last 5 W L D W W
Kick-off
Sat 21 Feb · 15:30
3:0
Full-time
Nacional
Nacional
W W L L W Away · last 5
Estádio Municipal de Arouca · Arouca Referee Luis Carlos Mateus Filipe, Portugal
Home Win · ARO
46%
Best 2.30
Draw
26%
Best 3.34
Away Win · NAC
28%
Best 3.09
Value pick
Under 0.5
@ 11.50
Fair odds
10.32
book 11.50 · +11.5% vs market
Bookmakers polled
3
distinct bookmakers
Pick confidence
Low
p 10% · EV +11.5%

Value pick isn't the most likely outcome — Over 0.5 is more likely (90%), but Under 0.5 is priced above the model's fair odds.

Match predictions

Simple model predictions for the main markets. Advanced model details are available below.

Most likely outcomes show what the model expects to happen. A betting pick also considers bookmaker prices, so it can differ from the most likely outcome.

Estimated probability — model's view. Implied probability — back-solved from the best book price. Bet quality: High Medium Low
FT Results 3 markets
Home Win Best in group
Probability 46.1%
Odds 2.40
Show model details
Implied probability 41.7%
Bet quality Medium
Away Win
Probability 27.8%
Odds 3.20
Show model details
Implied probability 31.3%
Bet quality Low
Draw
Probability 26.2%
Odds 3.43
Show model details
Implied probability 29.2%
Bet quality Low
Totals 8 markets
Under 2.5 Value pick
Probability 56.6%
Odds 1.92
Show model details
Implied probability 52.1%
Bet quality High
Over 2.5
Probability 43.4%
Odds 1.97
Show model details
Implied probability 50.8%
Bet quality Low
Under 1.5
Probability 31.2%
Odds 3.56
Show model details
Implied probability 28.1%
Bet quality Medium
Under 0.5
Probability 9.7%
Odds 11.50
Show model details
Implied probability 8.7%
Bet quality Low
Under 3.5
Probability 76.9%
Odds 1.35
Show model details
Implied probability 74.1%
Bet quality Low
Over 0.5 Best in group
Probability 90.3%
Odds 1.07
Show model details
Implied probability 93.5%
Bet quality Low
Over 1.5
Probability 68.8%
Odds 1.31
Show model details
Implied probability 76.3%
Bet quality Low
Over 3.5
Probability 23.2%
Odds 3.40
Show model details
Implied probability 29.4%
Bet quality Low
BTTS 2 markets
BTTS No Value pick
Probability 51.1%
Odds 2.15
Show model details
Implied probability 46.5%
Bet quality Medium
BTTS Yes
Probability 48.9%
Odds 1.73
Show model details
Implied probability 57.8%
Bet quality Low
Asian Handicap 2 markets
AH Home 0 Best in group
Probability 46.1%
Odds 1.73
Show model details
Implied probability 57.8%
Bet quality Low
AH Away 0
Probability 27.8%
Odds 2.21
Show model details
Implied probability 45.3%
Bet quality Low
Other Markets 2 markets
Double Chance X2
Probability 53.9%
Odds 1.61
Show model details
Implied probability 62.1%
Bet quality Low
Double Chance 1X Top pick
Probability 72.2%
Odds 1.40
Show model details
Implied probability 71.4%
Bet quality Medium

Predictions are model estimates based on data, not guaranteed outcomes. 18+ — please play responsibly.

Value pick of the night · Under 0.5
ARO – NAC @ 11.50
+11.5%
Edge
Forecast →