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Home Portugal Primeira Liga Arouca — Nacional

Predictions Arouca vs Nacional February 21, 2026 — Predictions and Probabilities

Portugal   /   Primeira Liga Value pick inside
Arouca
Arouca
Home · last 5 W L D W W
Kick-off
Sat 21 Feb · 15:30
3:0
Full-time
Nacional
Nacional
W W L L W Away · last 5
Estádio Municipal de Arouca · Arouca Referee Luis Carlos Mateus Filipe, Portugal
Home Win · ARO
46%
Best 2.30
Draw
26%
Best 3.34
Away Win · NAC
28%
Best 3.09
Value pick
Under 2.5
@ 1.92
Fair odds
1.77
book 1.92 · +8.6% vs market
Bookmakers polled
3
distinct bookmakers
Pick confidence
High
p 57% · EV +8.6%

Match predictions

Simple model predictions for the main markets. Advanced model details are available below.

Most likely outcomes show what the model expects to happen. A betting pick also considers bookmaker prices, so it can differ from the most likely outcome.

Estimated probability — model's view. Implied probability — back-solved from the best book price. Bet quality: High Medium Low
FT Results 3 markets
Home Win Best in group
Probability 46.1%
Odds 2.40
Show model details
Implied probability 41.7%
Bet quality Medium
Away Win
Probability 27.8%
Odds 3.20
Show model details
Implied probability 31.3%
Bet quality Low
Draw
Probability 26.2%
Odds 3.43
Show model details
Implied probability 29.2%
Bet quality Low
Totals 8 markets
Under 2.5 Value pick
Probability 56.6%
Odds 1.92
Show model details
Implied probability 52.1%
Bet quality High
Over 2.5
Probability 43.4%
Odds 1.97
Show model details
Implied probability 50.8%
Bet quality Low
Under 1.5
Probability 31.2%
Odds 3.56
Show model details
Implied probability 28.1%
Bet quality Medium
Under 0.5
Probability 9.7%
Odds 11.50
Show model details
Implied probability 8.7%
Bet quality Low
Under 3.5
Probability 76.9%
Odds 1.35
Show model details
Implied probability 74.1%
Bet quality Low
Over 0.5 Best in group
Probability 90.3%
Odds 1.07
Show model details
Implied probability 93.5%
Bet quality Low
Over 1.5
Probability 68.8%
Odds 1.31
Show model details
Implied probability 76.3%
Bet quality Low
Over 3.5
Probability 23.2%
Odds 3.40
Show model details
Implied probability 29.4%
Bet quality Low
BTTS 2 markets
BTTS No Value pick
Probability 51.1%
Odds 2.15
Show model details
Implied probability 46.5%
Bet quality Medium
BTTS Yes
Probability 48.9%
Odds 1.73
Show model details
Implied probability 57.8%
Bet quality Low
Asian Handicap 2 markets
AH Home 0 Best in group
Probability 46.1%
Odds 1.73
Show model details
Implied probability 57.8%
Bet quality Low
AH Away 0
Probability 27.8%
Odds 2.21
Show model details
Implied probability 45.3%
Bet quality Low
Other Markets 2 markets
Double Chance X2
Probability 53.9%
Odds 1.61
Show model details
Implied probability 62.1%
Bet quality Low
Double Chance 1X Top pick
Probability 72.2%
Odds 1.40
Show model details
Implied probability 71.4%
Bet quality Medium

Predictions are model estimates based on data, not guaranteed outcomes. 18+ — please play responsibly.

Value pick of the night · Under 2.5
ARO – NAC @ 1.92
+8.6%
Edge
Forecast →