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Arouca vs Nacional 3:0: Match Review & Stats

Portugal   /   Primeira Liga Value pick inside
Arouca
Arouca
Home · last 5 W L D W W
Kick-off
Sat 21 Feb · 15:30
3:0
Full-time
Nacional
Nacional
W W L L W Away · last 5
Estádio Municipal de Arouca · Aruca Referee Luis Carlos Mateus Filipe, Portugal
Miss
Under 2.5
Under 2.5
AI 57% · book 1.92 ✗
Hit
Home Win
Home Win
AI 46% · book 2.40 ✓
Hit
BTTS No
BTTS No
AI 51% · book 2.15 ✓
Total goals
3
3 · 0
xG (open play)
1.92 – 0.99
Δ +0.93
Possession
61% – 39%
AI accuracy
8 / 17
picks cashed

Model verdict

Post-match · 90 sec read

AI picks Under 0.5 at 11.50 — +11.5% better than the market.

Arouca hosts Nacional in a tightly matched Primeira Liga clash where home momentum and defensive solidity could be decisive. Arouca's home edge is noticeable with a compact defensive block challenging Nacional's sharper attack, though Nacional's recent form shows resilience. The game hints at a balanced pace with moderate goal expectations, favoring a tactical battle over open play.

  • Home defensive strength vs away offensive threat
  • Recent form suggests competitive intensity
  • Moderate tempo likely to limit high scoring

P Recap generated by AI · 6 markets graded
Pick of the night · settled · Under 0.5
Under 0.5 @ 11.50 ✗ Lost
AI 10% Implied 9% −1.00u
−100%
ROI on stake

Lineups

ARO 4-2-3-1 · NAC 4-1-4-1
Subs used · ARO
65' Gozalbez ↑ · Djouahra ↓
65' Nandin ↑ · Barbero ↓
85' Monteiro ↑ · Esgaio ↓
85' Santiago Perez ↑ · van Ee ↓
89' Puche ↑ · Trezza ↓
Subs used · NAC
46' Deivison ↑ · Baeza ↓
71' Silva ↑ · Dias ↓
71' Ruan ↑ · Ramirez ↓
78' Witi ↑ · Veron ↓
79' Junior ↑ · Boia ↓

Statistics

ARO 3 – 0 NAC
61%
Possession (%)
39%
1.92
Expected Goals (xG) expected goals
0.99
10
Total Shots
15
7
Shots on Target
5
2
Shots off Target
5
8
Shots Inside Box
11
4
Corner Kicks
1
6
Offsides
0
12
Fouls
13
87%
Pass Accuracy (%)
76%
5
Yellow Cards
3
5
Goalkeeper Saves
4

Match events

23 · 3 – 0
Tiago Esgaio
Yellow Card
▮
13'
19'
▮
Chiheb Labidi
Yellow Card
Half-time · 0 – 0
46'
⇄
Deivison ↓ · M. Baeza ↑
Substitution 1
A. Trezza
Assist · H. Lee · 1–0
⚽
47'
51'
▮
Chiheb Labidi
Yellow Card
51'
▮
Chiheb Labidi
Red Card
Ivan Barbero
Yellow Card
▮
57'
Espen Van Ee
Yellow Card
▮
62'
64'
▮
Ze Vitor
Yellow Card
P. Gozalbez ↓ · N. Djouahra ↑
Substitution 1
⇄
65'
D. Nandin ↓ · I. Barbero ↑
Substitution 2
⇄
65'
H. Lee
2–0
⚽
67'
71'
⇄
J. Silva ↓ · Matheus Dias ↑
Substitution 2
71'
⇄
Pablo Ruan ↓ · J. Ramirez ↑
Substitution 3
D. Nandin
Assist · P. Gozalbez · 3–0
⚽
72'
78'
⇄
Witi ↓ · Gabriel Veron ↑
Substitution 4
Hyun-ju Lee
Yellow Card
▮
79'
79'
⇄
Daniel Junior ↓ · Paulinho Boia ↑
Substitution 5
Hyun-ju Lee
Yellow Card
▮
83'
Hyun-ju Lee
Red Card
▮
83'
D. Monteiro ↓ · Tiago Esgaio ↑
Substitution 3
⇄
85'
J. Santiago Perez ↓ · E. van Ee ↑
Substitution 4
⇄
85'
Puche ↓ · A. Trezza ↑
Substitution 5
⇄
89'
Full-time · 3 – 0

Match recap

Arouca beat Nacional 3–0 at home. At half-time it was 0–0.

In possession, the hosts ran the game with 61% of the ball. For accuracy, the hosts completed 87% of their passes. On the balance of chances, the hosts held the expected-goals edge, 1.92 to 0.99. In attack, the visitors carried the greater threat — 15 shots to 10, 5 on target. From set pieces, the hosts won the corner count, 4 to 1. For discipline, the referee produced 8 yellow cards.

On the scoresheet: A. Trezza (47'), H. Lee (67'), D. Nandin (72'). Chiheb Labidi was sent off in the 51' minute. Hyun-ju Lee was sent off in the 83' minute.

Model audit for this match: of 17 graded markets, 8 landed and 9 missed, for a net -3.62 units (Brier 0.154).

Bet recap · markets settled

17 · 8 W · 9 L
Market Odds Closed AI Result P/L · 1u
Under 2.5 1.92 — 57% Lost −1.00 Miss
Home Win 2.40 — 46% Cashed +1.40 Cashed
BTTS No 2.15 — 51% Cashed +1.15 Cashed
Double Chance X2 1.61 — 54% Lost −1.00 Miss
Over 2.5 1.97 — 43% Cashed +0.97 Cashed
BTTS Yes 1.73 — 49% Lost −1.00 Miss
AH Home 0 1.73 — 46% Cashed +0.73 Cashed
AH Away 0 2.21 — 28% Lost −1.00 Miss
Double Chance 1X 1.40 — 72% Cashed +0.40 Cashed
Under 1.5 3.56 — 31% Lost −1.00 Miss
Away Win 3.20 — 28% Lost −1.00 Miss
Under 0.5 11.50 — 10% Lost −1.00 Miss
Under 3.5 1.35 — 77% Cashed +0.35 Cashed
Over 0.5 1.07 — 90% Cashed +0.07 Cashed
Over 1.5 1.31 — 69% Cashed +0.31 Cashed
Draw 3.43 — 26% Lost −1.00 Miss
Over 3.5 3.40 — 23% Lost −1.00 Miss
Total · 17 markets @ 1u each — — — 8 W · 9 L −3.62u −21% ROI
Value pick of the night · Under 0.5
ARO – NAC @ 11.50
+11.5%
Edge
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