Match Arouca vs Nacional February 21, 2026 — Result and Stats on Prognosist

Post-match · 90 sec read

AI picks Under 2.5 at 1.92 — +8.6% better than the market.

Arouca hosts Nacional in a tightly matched Primeira Liga clash where home momentum and defensive solidity could be decisive. Arouca's home edge is noticeable with a compact defensive block challenging Nacional's sharper attack, though Nacional's recent form shows resilience. The game hints at a balanced pace with moderate goal expectations, favoring a tactical battle over open play.

Home defensive strength vs away offensive threat
Recent form suggests competitive intensity
Moderate tempo likely to limit high scoring

P Recap generated by AI · 6 markets graded

Pick of the night · settled · Under 2.5

Under 2.5 @ 1.92 ✗ Lost

AI 57% Implied 52% −1.00u

−100%

ROI on stake

⛀ Lineups

ARO 4-2-3-1 · NAC 4-1-4-1

ARO · 4-2-3-1 4-1-4-1 · NAC

17 Barbero

Subs used · ARO

65'

Gozalbez ↑ ·

Djouahra ↓

65'

Nandin ↑ ·

Barbero ↓

85'

Monteiro ↑ ·

Esgaio ↓

85'

Santiago Perez ↑ ·

van Ee ↓

89'

Puche ↑ ·

Trezza ↓

Subs used · NAC

46'

Deivison ↑ ·

Baeza ↓

71'

Silva ↑ ·

Dias ↓

71'

Ruan ↑ ·

Ramirez ↓

78'

Witi ↑ ·

Veron ↓

79'

Junior ↑ ·

Boia ↓

📊 Statistics

ARO 3 – 0 NAC

61%

Possession (%)

39%

1.92

Expected Goals (xG) expected goals

0.99

Total Shots

Shots on Target

Shots off Target

Shots Inside Box

Corner Kicks

Offsides

Fouls

87%

Pass Accuracy (%)

76%

Yellow Cards

Goalkeeper Saves

⏱ Match events

23 · 3 – 0

Tiago Esgaio

Yellow Card

▮

13'

19'

▮

Chiheb Labidi

Yellow Card

Half-time · 0 – 0

46'

⇄

Deivison ↓ · M. Baeza ↑

Substitution 1

A. Trezza

Assist · H. Lee · 1–0

⚽

47'

51'

▮

Chiheb Labidi

Yellow Card

51'

▮

Chiheb Labidi

Red Card

Ivan Barbero

Yellow Card

▮

57'

Espen Van Ee

Yellow Card

▮

62'

64'

▮

Ze Vitor

Yellow Card

P. Gozalbez ↓ · N. Djouahra ↑

Substitution 1

⇄

65'

D. Nandin ↓ · I. Barbero ↑

Substitution 2

⇄

65'

H. Lee

2–0

⚽

67'

71'

⇄

J. Silva ↓ · Matheus Dias ↑

Substitution 2

71'

⇄

Pablo Ruan ↓ · J. Ramirez ↑

Substitution 3

D. Nandin

Assist · P. Gozalbez · 3–0

⚽

72'

78'

⇄

Witi ↓ · Gabriel Veron ↑

Substitution 4

Hyun-ju Lee

Yellow Card

▮

79'

⇄

Daniel Junior ↓ · Paulinho Boia ↑

Substitution 5

Hyun-ju Lee

Yellow Card

▮

83'

Hyun-ju Lee

Red Card

▮

83'

D. Monteiro ↓ · Tiago Esgaio ↑

Substitution 3

⇄

85'

J. Santiago Perez ↓ · E. van Ee ↑

Substitution 4

⇄

85'

Puche ↓ · A. Trezza ↑

Substitution 5

⇄

89'

Full-time · 3 – 0

Match recap

Arouca beat Nacional 3–0 at home. At half-time it was 0–0.

In possession, the hosts ran the game with 61% of the ball. For accuracy, the hosts completed 87% of their passes. On the balance of chances, the hosts held the expected-goals edge, 1.92 to 0.99. In attack, the visitors carried the greater threat — 15 shots to 10, 5 on target. From set pieces, the hosts won the corner count, 4 to 1. For discipline, the referee produced 8 yellow cards.

On the scoresheet: A. Trezza (47'), H. Lee (67'), D. Nandin (72'). Chiheb Labidi was sent off in the 51' minute. Hyun-ju Lee was sent off in the 83' minute.

Model audit for this match: of 17 graded markets, 8 landed and 9 missed, for a net -3.62 units (Brier 0.154).

⚖ Bet recap · markets settled

17 · 8 W · 9 L

Market	Odds	Closed	AI	Result	P/L · 1u
Under 2.5	1.92	—	57%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Home Win	2.40	—	46%	Cashed	+1.40	Cashed
BTTS No	2.15	—	51%	Cashed	+1.15	Cashed
Double Chance X2	1.61	—	54%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Over 2.5	1.97	—	43%	Cashed	+0.97	Cashed
BTTS Yes	1.73	—	49%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
AH Home 0	1.73	—	46%	Cashed	+0.73	Cashed
AH Away 0	2.21	—	28%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Double Chance 1X	1.40	—	72%	Cashed	+0.40	Cashed
Under 1.5	3.56	—	31%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Away Win	3.20	—	28%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Under 0.5	11.50	—	10%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Under 3.5	1.35	—	77%	Cashed	+0.35	Cashed
Over 0.5	1.07	—	90%	Cashed	+0.07	Cashed
Over 1.5	1.31	—	69%	Cashed	+0.31	Cashed
Draw	3.43	—	26%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Over 3.5	3.40	—	23%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Total · 17 markets @ 1u each	—	—	—	8 W · 9 L	−3.62u	−21% ROI