P
Prognosist
Login Sign Up →
P
Login Sign Up
⚽ Football 📰 News 📈 Forecasts 📅 Today 💹 Value Bets 🏅 Tipsters 🎫 Bookmakers 🏆 Tournament
Home › Portugal › Primeira Liga › FC Porto — Rio Ave

FC Porto vs Rio Ave 1:0: Match Review & Stats

Portugal   /   Primeira Liga Value pick inside
FC Porto
FC Porto
Home · last 5 W W W L W
Kick-off
Sun 22 Feb · 20:30
1:0
Full-time
Rio Ave
Rio Ave
D L D L D Away · last 5
Estádio do Dragão · Porto Referee David Rafael Oliveira da Silva, Portugal
Hit
Under 3.5
Under 3.5
AI 64% · book 1.74 ✓
Hit
Under 2.5
Under 2.5
AI 43% · book 2.71 ✓
Miss
BTTS Yes
BTTS Yes
AI 38% · book 2.78 ✗
Total goals
1
1 · 0
xG (open play)
1.95 – 0.24
Δ +1.71
Possession
55% – 45%
AI accuracy
8 / 17
picks cashed

Model verdict

Post-match · 90 sec read

AI picks Under 3.5 at 1.74 — +10.8% better than the market.

FC Porto hosts Rio Ave with a clear quality edge and strong home momentum, boasting a solid recent run compared to Rio Ave's struggles. Porto's potent attack faces a less resilient Rio Ave defense, suggesting a tactical advantage in controlling the game tempo and creating chances. The home side's compact block and set-piece threat add to their dominance, while Rio Ave's defensive frailties may invite pressure early on.

  • Home momentum and form advantage
  • Superior attacking vs weaker away defense
  • Compact defense and set-piece threat for Porto

P Recap generated by AI · 6 markets graded
Pick of the night · settled · Under 3.5
Under 3.5 @ 1.74 ✓ Cashed
AI 64% Implied 57% +0.74u
+74%
ROI on stake

Lineups

POR 4-3-3 · RIO 4-2-3-1
POR · 4-3-3 4-2-3-1 · RIO 99 Costa 20 Costa 5 Bednarek 13 Rosario 12 Sanusi 8 Froholdt ⚽ 22 Varela 10 Veiga 11 Pepê 27 Gül 77 Pietuszewski 99 Gouw 17 Vrousai 32 Brabec 39 Mancha 77 Richards 44 Nikitscher 5 Ndoj 7 Bezerra 80 Pohlmann 18 Špikić 11 Blesa
Subs used · POR
65' Gomes ↑ · Pietuszewski ↓
65' Mora ↑ · Veiga ↓
75' Sainz ↑ · Pepê ↓
75' Fofana ↑ · Gul ↓
85' Moffi ↑ · Froholdt ↓
Subs used · RIO
65' Zoabi ↑ · Spikic ↓
65' Tome ↑ · Pohlmann ↓
83' Guilherme ↑ · Nikitscher ↓
83' Papakanellos ↑ · Vrousai ↓
88' Graca ↑ · Ntoi ↓

Statistics

POR 1 – 0 RIO
55%
Possession (%)
45%
1.95
Expected Goals (xG) expected goals
0.24
16
Total Shots
6
3
Shots on Target
1
8
Shots off Target
3
11
Shots Inside Box
2
10
Corner Kicks
1
2
Offsides
0
14
Fouls
16
86%
Pass Accuracy (%)
80%
2
Yellow Cards
3
1
Goalkeeper Saves
2

Match events

16 · 1 – 0
V. Froholdt
Assist · O. Pietuszewski · 1–0
⚽
22'
Half-time · 1 – 0
William Gomes ↓ · O. Pietuszewski ↑
Substitution 1
⇄
65'
R. Mora ↓ · G. Veiga ↑
Substitution 2
⇄
65'
65'
⇄
K. Zoabi ↓ · D. Spikic ↑
Substitution 1
65'
⇄
J. Tome ↓ · O. Pohlmann ↑
Substitution 2
B. Sainz ↓ · Pepê ↑
Substitution 3
⇄
75'
S. Fofana ↓ · D. Gul ↑
Substitution 4
⇄
75'
83'
⇄
Ryan Guilherme ↓ · T. Nikitscher ↑
Substitution 3
83'
⇄
A. Papakanellos ↓ · M. Vrousai ↑
Substitution 4
T. Moffi ↓ · V. Froholdt ↑
Substitution 5
⇄
85'
88'
⇄
J. Graca ↓ · A. Ntoi ↑
Substitution 5
Alberto Costa
Yellow Card
▮
90+2'
90+2'
▮
Omar Richards
Yellow Card
90+2'
▮
João Graça
Yellow Card
90+6'
▮
Karem Zoabi
Yellow Card
Alan Varela
Yellow Card
▮
90+7'
Full-time · 1 – 0

Match recap

FC Porto beat Rio Ave 1–0 at home. At half-time it was 1–0.

In possession, the hosts ran the game with 55% of the ball. On the balance of chances, the hosts held the expected-goals edge, 1.95 to 0.24. In attack, the hosts carried the greater threat — 16 shots to 6, 3 on target. From set pieces, the hosts won the corner count, 10 to 1. For discipline, the referee produced 5 yellow cards.

On the scoresheet: V. Froholdt (22').

Model audit for this match: of 17 graded markets, 8 landed and 9 missed, for a net -1.15 units (Brier 0.150).

Bet recap · markets settled

17 · 8 W · 9 L
Market Odds Closed AI Result P/L · 1u
Under 3.5 1.74 — 64% Cashed +0.74 Cashed
Under 2.5 2.71 — 43% Cashed +1.71 Cashed
BTTS Yes 2.78 — 38% Lost −1.00 Miss
Over 3.5 2.20 — 36% Lost −1.00 Miss
Draw 11.80 — 11% Lost −1.00 Miss
Under 1.5 5.61 — 21% Cashed +4.61 Cashed
Double Chance X2 7.60 — 14% Lost −1.00 Miss
Double Chance 1X 1.03 — 98% Cashed +0.03 Cashed
Home Win 1.15 — 86% Cashed +0.15 Cashed
BTTS No 1.55 — 62% Cashed +0.55 Cashed
AH Home 0 1.03 — 86% Cashed +0.03 Cashed
Over 2.5 1.50 — 57% Lost −1.00 Miss
Under 0.5 21.00 — 6% Lost −1.00 Miss
Over 0.5 1.03 — 94% Cashed +0.03 Cashed
Over 1.5 1.15 — 79% Lost −1.00 Miss
Away Win 30.00 — 3% Lost −1.00 Miss
AH Away 0 16.00 — 3% Lost −1.00 Miss
Total · 17 markets @ 1u each — — — 8 W · 9 L −1.15u −7% ROI
Value pick of the night · Under 3.5
POR – RIO @ 1.74
+10.8%
Edge
Forecast →