Match FC Porto vs Rio Ave February 22, 2026 — Result and Stats on Prognosist

Post-match · 90 sec read

AI picks Under 3.5 at 1.74 — +10.8% better than the market.

FC Porto hosts Rio Ave with a clear quality edge and strong home momentum, boasting a solid recent run compared to Rio Ave's struggles. Porto's potent attack faces a less resilient Rio Ave defense, suggesting a tactical advantage in controlling the game tempo and creating chances. The home side's compact block and set-piece threat add to their dominance, while Rio Ave's defensive frailties may invite pressure early on.

Home momentum and form advantage
Superior attacking vs weaker away defense
Compact defense and set-piece threat for Porto

P Recap generated by AI · 6 markets graded

Pick of the night · settled · Under 3.5

Under 3.5 @ 1.74 ✓ Cashed

AI 64% Implied 57% +0.74u

+74%

ROI on stake

⛀ Lineups

POR 4-3-3 · RIO 4-2-3-1

POR · 4-3-3 4-2-3-1 · RIO

77 Pietuszewski

Subs used · POR

65'

Gomes ↑ ·

Pietuszewski ↓

65'

Mora ↑ ·

Veiga ↓

75'

Sainz ↑ ·

Pepê ↓

75'

Fofana ↑ ·

Gul ↓

85'

Moffi ↑ ·

Froholdt ↓

Subs used · RIO

65'

Zoabi ↑ ·

Spikic ↓

65'

Tome ↑ ·

Pohlmann ↓

83'

Guilherme ↑ ·

Nikitscher ↓

83'

Papakanellos ↑ ·

Vrousai ↓

88'

Graca ↑ ·

Ntoi ↓

📊 Statistics

POR 1 – 0 RIO

55%

Possession (%)

45%

1.95

Expected Goals (xG) expected goals

0.24

Total Shots

Shots on Target

Shots off Target

Shots Inside Box

Corner Kicks

Offsides

Fouls

86%

Pass Accuracy (%)

80%

Yellow Cards

Goalkeeper Saves

⏱ Match events

16 · 1 – 0

V. Froholdt

Assist · O. Pietuszewski · 1–0

⚽

22'

Half-time · 1 – 0

William Gomes ↓ · O. Pietuszewski ↑

Substitution 1

⇄

65'

R. Mora ↓ · G. Veiga ↑

Substitution 2

⇄

65'

⇄

K. Zoabi ↓ · D. Spikic ↑

Substitution 1

65'

⇄

J. Tome ↓ · O. Pohlmann ↑

Substitution 2

B. Sainz ↓ · Pepê ↑

Substitution 3

⇄

75'

S. Fofana ↓ · D. Gul ↑

Substitution 4

⇄

75'

83'

⇄

Ryan Guilherme ↓ · T. Nikitscher ↑

Substitution 3

83'

⇄

A. Papakanellos ↓ · M. Vrousai ↑

Substitution 4

T. Moffi ↓ · V. Froholdt ↑

Substitution 5

⇄

85'

88'

⇄

J. Graca ↓ · A. Ntoi ↑

Substitution 5

Alberto Costa

Yellow Card

▮

90+2'

▮

Omar Richards

Yellow Card

90+2'

▮

João Graça

Yellow Card

90+6'

▮

Karem Zoabi

Yellow Card

Alan Varela

Yellow Card

▮

90+7'

Full-time · 1 – 0

Match recap

FC Porto beat Rio Ave 1–0 at home. At half-time it was 1–0.

In possession, the hosts ran the game with 55% of the ball. On the balance of chances, the hosts held the expected-goals edge, 1.95 to 0.24. In attack, the hosts carried the greater threat — 16 shots to 6, 3 on target. From set pieces, the hosts won the corner count, 10 to 1. For discipline, the referee produced 5 yellow cards.

On the scoresheet: V. Froholdt (22').

Model audit for this match: of 17 graded markets, 8 landed and 9 missed, for a net -1.15 units (Brier 0.150).

⚖ Bet recap · markets settled

17 · 8 W · 9 L

Market	Odds	Closed	AI	Result	P/L · 1u
Under 3.5	1.74	—	64%	Cashed	+0.74	Cashed
Under 2.5	2.71	—	43%	Cashed	+1.71	Cashed
BTTS Yes	2.78	—	38%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Over 3.5	2.20	—	36%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Draw	11.80	—	11%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Under 1.5	5.61	—	21%	Cashed	+4.61	Cashed
Double Chance X2	7.60	—	14%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Double Chance 1X	1.03	—	98%	Cashed	+0.03	Cashed
Home Win	1.15	—	86%	Cashed	+0.15	Cashed
BTTS No	1.55	—	62%	Cashed	+0.55	Cashed
AH Home 0	1.03	—	86%	Cashed	+0.03	Cashed
Over 2.5	1.50	—	57%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Under 0.5	21.00	—	6%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Over 0.5	1.03	—	94%	Cashed	+0.03	Cashed
Over 1.5	1.15	—	79%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Away Win	30.00	—	3%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
AH Away 0	16.00	—	3%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Total · 17 markets @ 1u each	—	—	—	8 W · 9 L	−1.15u	−7% ROI