Match Nacional vs FC Porto February 15, 2026 — Result and Stats on Prognosist

Post-match · 90 sec read

AI picks BTTS Yes at 2.23 — +14.8% better than the market.

FC Porto enters this clash with a clear quality edge and a pressing advantage, reflected in their superior attacking and defensive metrics. Despite Nacional's home momentum and a compact defensive block, Porto's recent form and offensive firepower suggest they will control the game tempo. Expect a tactical battle where Porto's ability to break down Nacional's defense could be decisive.

Porto's strong away form and higher scoring potential
Nacional's resilience at home but limited offensive threat
Moderate pace hinted by balanced over/under odds

P Recap generated by AI · 6 markets graded

Pick of the night · settled · BTTS Yes

BTTS Yes @ 2.23 ✗ Lost

AI 51% Implied 45% −1.00u

−100%

ROI on stake

⛀ Lineups

NAC 4-3-3 · POR 4-3-3

NAC · 4-3-3 4-3-3 · POR

11 Bóia

Subs used · NAC

46'

Baeza ↑ ·

Silva ↓

71'

Ruan ↑ ·

Witi ↓

76'

Vallier ↑ ·

Goncalves ↓

85'

Junior ↑ ·

Boia ↓

85'

Labidi ↑ ·

Liziero ↓

Subs used · POR

59'

Veiga ↑ ·

Mora ↓

59'

Sainz ↑ ·

Pietuszewski ↓

74'

Moffi ↑ ·

Gul ↓

74'

Fofana ↑ ·

Froholdt ↓

90'

Gomes ↑ ·

Pepê ↓

📊 Statistics

NAC 0 – 1 POR

47%

Possession (%)

53%

0.65

Expected Goals (xG) expected goals

0.45

Total Shots

Shots on Target

Shots off Target

Shots Inside Box

Corner Kicks

Offsides

Fouls

75%

Pass Accuracy (%)

80%

Yellow Cards

Goalkeeper Saves

⏱ Match events

15 · 0 – 1

Francisco Gonçalves

Yellow Card

▮

45+1'

Half-time · 0 – 0

M. Baeza ↓ · J. Silva ↑

Substitution 1

⇄

46'

59'

⇄

G. Veiga ↓ · R. Mora ↑

Substitution 1

59'

⇄

B. Sainz ↓ · O. Pietuszewski ↑

Substitution 2

60'

⚽

J. Bednarek

Assist · G. Veiga · 0–1

Pablo Ruan ↓ · Witi ↑

Substitution 2

⇄

71'

74'

⇄

T. Moffi ↓ · D. Gul ↑

Substitution 3

74'

⇄

S. Fofana ↓ · V. Froholdt ↑

Substitution 4

L. Vallier ↓ · C. Goncalves ↑

Substitution 3

⇄

76'

Liziero

Yellow Card

▮

84'

Daniel Junior ↓ · Paulinho Boia ↑

Substitution 4

⇄

85'

C. Labidi ↓ · Liziero ↑

Substitution 5

⇄

85'

Kaique

Yellow Card

▮

87'

90'

⇄

William Gomes ↓ · Pepê ↑

Substitution 5

Lenny Vallier

Yellow Card

▮

90+3'

Full-time · 0 – 1

Match recap

FC Porto won 1–0 away at Nacional. At half-time it was 0–0.

From set pieces, the visitors won the corner count, 8 to 5. At the back, the hosts leaned on their goalkeeper for 4 saves. For discipline, the referee produced 4 yellow cards.

On the scoresheet: J. Bednarek (60').

Model audit for this match: of 17 graded markets, 8 landed and 9 missed, for a net -2.93 units (Brier 0.175).

⚖ Bet recap · markets settled

17 · 8 W · 9 L

Market	Odds	Closed	AI	Result	P/L · 1u
BTTS Yes	2.23	—	51%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Over 2.5	1.82	—	58%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Under 2.5	2.14	—	42%	Cashed	+1.14	Cashed
BTTS No	1.70	—	49%	Cashed	+0.70	Cashed
Over 3.5	3.02	—	36%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Away Win	1.37	—	74%	Cashed	+0.37	Cashed
Double Chance X2	1.09	—	93%	Cashed	+0.09	Cashed
Under 3.5	1.42	—	64%	Cashed	+0.42	Cashed
AH Away 0	1.10	—	74%	Cashed	+0.10	Cashed
Over 1.5	1.27	—	80%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Draw	5.40	—	19%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Over 0.5	1.05	—	94%	Cashed	+0.05	Cashed
Double Chance 1X	3.40	—	26%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Under 1.5	4.20	—	20%	Cashed	+3.20	Cashed
Under 0.5	13.00	—	6%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Home Win	10.50	—	7%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
AH Home 0	7.00	—	7%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Total · 17 markets @ 1u each	—	—	—	8 W · 9 L	−2.93u	−17% ROI