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Home › Portugal › Primeira Liga › Tondela — Alverca

Tondela vs Alverca 1:1: Match Review & Stats

Portugal   /   Primeira Liga Value pick inside
Tondela
Tondela
Home · last 5 L D W W L
Kick-off
Fri 13 Feb · 20:45
1:1
Full-time
Alverca
Alverca
L W L D L Away · last 5
Estádio João Cardoso · Tondela Referee Pedro Ramalho, Portugal
Miss
BTTS No
BTTS No
AI 57% · book 1.85 ✗
Miss
Under 1.5
Under 1.5
AI 38% · book 2.78 ✗
Hit
Under 2.5
Under 2.5
AI 64% · book 1.62 ✓
Total goals
2
1 · 1
xG (open play)
1.55 – 0.72
Δ +0.83
Possession
60% – 40%
AI accuracy
8 / 17
picks cashed

Model verdict

Post-match · 90 sec read

AI picks Double Chance X2 at 1.52 — +8.0% better than the market.

Alverca enters this clash with a clear quality edge and better recent form, suggesting they carry the momentum despite playing away. Their slightly sharper attack against Tondela's sturdy defense could unlock chances, while Tondela's home edge is modest but could help them stay compact. The match hints at a cautious tempo with a moderate goal environment, favoring a tight contest where Alverca's resilience might prevail.

  • Alverca's superior overall strength and recent wins
  • Tondela's defensive solidity at home
  • Likely balanced pace with limited goal flow

P Recap generated by AI · 6 markets graded
Pick of the night · settled · Double Chance X2
Double Chance X2 @ 1.52 ✓ Cashed
AI 71% Implied 66% +0.52u
+52%
ROI on stake

Lineups

TON 4-2-3-1 · ALV 3-4-3
TON · 4-2-3-1 3-4-3 · ALV 31 Fontes 2 Bebeto 4 Marques 20 Medina 27 Conceição 15 Sithole 97 Cicero 7 Maranhão 10 Hodge 90 Aïko 23 Mbunga-Kimpioka 13 Gomes 4 Naves 5 Gómez 33 Meupiyou 2 Touaizi 26 Rhaldney 17 Moreira 55 Chissumba 20 Figueiredo 9 Milovanović ⚽ 10 Chiquinho
Subs used · TON
46' Rodriguez ↑ · Sithole ↓
62' Silva ↑ · Bebeto ↓
62' Felix ↑ · Hodge ↓
76' van der Heide ↑ · Marques ↓
87' Manso ↑ · Maranhao ↓
Subs used · ALV
71' Martinez ↑ · Chiquinho ↓
71' Gui ↑ · Figueiredo ↓
71' Clairicia ↑ · Marezi ↓
82' Baseya ↑ · Chissumba ↓
85' Nuozzi ↑ · Rhaldney ↓

Statistics

TON 1 – 1 ALV
60%
Possession (%)
40%
1.55
Expected Goals (xG) expected goals
0.72
18
Total Shots
10
4
Shots on Target
4
9
Shots off Target
1
15
Shots Inside Box
10
11
Corner Kicks
5
1
Offsides
0
14
Fouls
10
86%
Pass Accuracy (%)
81%
4
Yellow Cards
4
3
Goalkeeper Saves
3

Match events

23 · 1 – 1
-5'
▮
Chiquinho
Yellow Card
4'
⚽
Marezi
Assist · N. Touaizi · 0–1
Benjamin Mbunga-Kimpioka
Yellow Card
▮
43'
44'
▮
Nabil Touaizi
Yellow Card
Half-time · 0 – 1
J. Rodriguez ↓ · S. Sithole ↑
Substitution 1
⇄
46'
45+7'
▮
Bastien Meupiyou
Yellow Card
Makan Aïko
Yellow Card
▮
60'
J. Silva ↓ · Bebeto ↑
Substitution 2
⇄
62'
H. Felix ↓ · J. Hodge ↑
Substitution 3
⇄
62'
67'
▮
Bastien Meupiyou
Yellow Card
67'
▮
Bastien Meupiyou
Red Card
70'
▮
André Gomes
Yellow Card
71'
⇄
J. Martinez ↓ · Chiquinho ↑
Substitution 1
71'
⇄
D. Gui ↓ · Figueiredo ↑
Substitution 2
71'
⇄
M. Clairicia ↓ · Marezi ↑
Substitution 3
A. van der Heide ↓ · C. Marques ↑
Substitution 4
⇄
76'
J. Silva
Assist · B. Medina · 1–1
⚽
80'
82'
⇄
S. Baseya ↓ · Chissumba ↑
Substitution 4
85'
⇄
C. Nuozzi ↓ · Rhaldney ↑
Substitution 5
Cicero
Yellow Card
▮
87'
T. Manso ↓ · Pedro Maranhao ↑
Substitution 5
⇄
87'
Bernardo Fontes
Yellow Card
▮
90+8'
Rodrigo Conceição
Yellow Card
▮
90+8'
Full-time · 1 – 1

Match recap

Tondela and Alverca drew 1–1. At half-time it was 0–1.

In possession, the hosts ran the game with 60% of the ball. On the balance of chances, the hosts held the expected-goals edge, 1.55 to 0.72. In attack, the hosts carried the greater threat — 18 shots to 10, 4 on target. From set pieces, the hosts won the corner count, 11 to 5. For discipline, the referee produced 8 yellow cards.

On the scoresheet: Marezi (4'), J. Silva (80'). Bastien Meupiyou was sent off in the 67' minute.

Model audit for this match: of 17 graded markets, 8 landed and 9 missed, for a net -3.35 units (Brier 0.153).

Bet recap · markets settled

17 · 8 W · 9 L
Market Odds Closed AI Result P/L · 1u
BTTS No 1.85 — 57% Lost −1.00 Miss
Under 1.5 2.78 — 38% Lost −1.00 Miss
Under 2.5 1.62 — 64% Cashed +0.62 Cashed
BTTS Yes 2.06 — 43% Cashed +1.06 Cashed
Over 2.5 2.42 — 36% Lost −1.00 Miss
AH Away 0 2.04 — 43% Lost −1.00 Miss
Home Win 2.70 — 29% Lost −1.00 Miss
AH Home 0 1.86 — 29% Lost −1.00 Miss
Double Chance X2 1.52 — 71% Cashed +0.52 Cashed
Away Win 2.92 — 43% Lost −1.00 Miss
Over 1.5 1.48 — 62% Cashed +0.48 Cashed
Draw 3.20 — 28% Cashed +2.20 Cashed
Double Chance 1X 1.45 — 57% Cashed +0.45 Cashed
Under 3.5 1.21 — 83% Cashed +0.21 Cashed
Under 0.5 7.00 — 14% Lost −1.00 Miss
Over 0.5 1.11 — 86% Cashed +0.11 Cashed
Over 3.5 4.61 — 18% Lost −1.00 Miss
Total · 17 markets @ 1u each — — — 8 W · 9 L −3.35u −20% ROI
Value pick of the night · Double Chance X2
TON – ALV @ 1.52
+8.0%
Edge
Forecast →