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⚽ Football 📈 Forecasts
Football Portugal Primeira Liga Alverca — Estrela

Match Alverca vs Estrela January 31, 2026

Alverca
Alverca
Home · last 5 L W L D L
Kick-off
Sat 31 Jan · 20:30
1:1
Full-time
Estrela
Estrela
L L L D D Away · last 5
FC Alverca Sports Complex · Alverca do Ribatejo Referee Jose Bessa, Portugal
Miss
Home Win
Home Win
AI 52% · book 2.20
Miss
BTTS No
BTTS No
AI 55% · book 1.87
Hit
Under 2.5
Under 2.5
AI 59% · book 1.71
Total goals
2
1 · 1
xG (open play)
0.89 – 0.88
Δ +0.01
Possession
57% – 43%
AI accuracy
8 / 17
picks cashed
Post-match · 90 sec read

Alverca holds a slight quality edge and benefits from a modest home momentum, showing better recent form and a tighter defensive setup compared to Estrela. The home side's defensive solidity could stifle Estrela's attack, which has struggled to convert chances away. Expect a cautious tempo with a leaning towards a compact block from Alverca, aiming to control the game and capitalize on set-pieces.

  • Home defensive resilience vs away attack
  • Recent form favors Alverca
  • Moderate pace suggested by odds

P Recap generated by AI · 6 markets graded

Lineups

ALV 3-4-3 · EST 3-1-4-2
Subs used · ALV
17' Moreira ↑ · Abdulai
69' Nuozzi ↑ · Chiquinho
69' Clairicia ↑ · Marezi
84' Gui ↑ · Meupiyou
84' Garcia ↑ · Figueiredo
Subs used · EST
53' Meireles ↑ · Sola
53' Doue ↑ · Moustier
62' Kalley ↑ · Stoica
76' Robinho ↑ · Pinho
76' van Hooijdonk ↑ · Antonetti

📊 Statistics

ALV 11 EST
57%
Possession (%)
43%
0.89
Expected Goals (xG) expected goals
0.88
8
Total Shots
5
4
Shots on Target
2
1
Shots off Target
1
4
Shots Inside Box
3
9
Corner Kicks
2
0
Offsides
1
17
Fouls
17
83%
Pass Accuracy (%)
83%
1
Yellow Cards
2
1
Goalkeeper Saves
3

Match events

15 · 1 – 1
10'
Paulo Moreira
Yellow Card
V. Moreira ↓ · S. Abdulai ↑
Substitution 1
17'
Half-time · 0 – 0
53'
J. Meireles ↓ · A. Sola ↑
Substitution 1
53'
G. Doue ↓ · T. Moustier ↑
Substitution 2
62'
Y. Kalley ↓ · I. Stoica ↑
Substitution 3
64'
Yahya Kalley
Yellow Card
Vasco Moreira
Yellow Card
66'
C. Nuozzi ↓ · Chiquinho ↑
Substitution 2
69'
M. Clairicia ↓ · Marezi ↑
Substitution 3
69'
76'
Robinho ↓ · Rodrigo Pinho ↑
Substitution 4
76'
S. van Hooijdonk ↓ · L. Antonetti ↑
Substitution 5
81'
S. van Hooijdonk (P)
Penalty · 0–1
D. Gui ↓ · B. Meupiyou ↑
Substitution 4
84'
F. Garcia ↓ · Figueiredo ↑
Substitution 5
84'
F. Garcia
Assist · Lincoln · 1–1
87'
Full-time · 1 – 1

Bet recap · markets settled

17 · 8 W · 9 L
Market Odds Closed AI Result P/L · 1u
Home Win 2.20 52% Lost −1.00 Miss
BTTS No 1.87 55% Lost −1.00 Miss
Under 2.5 1.71 59% Cashed +0.71 Cashed
Over 2.5 2.24 41% Lost −1.00 Miss
BTTS Yes 1.96 45% Cashed +0.96 Cashed
Double Chance X2 1.78 48% Cashed +0.78 Cashed
AH Away 0 2.67 21% Lost −1.00 Miss
Double Chance 1X 1.30 79% Cashed +0.30 Cashed
Under 1.5 3.10 33% Lost −1.00 Miss
Over 1.5 1.42 67% Cashed +0.42 Cashed
AH Home 0 1.53 52% Lost −1.00 Miss
Under 3.5 1.25 79% Cashed +0.25 Cashed
Over 0.5 1.09 89% Cashed +0.09 Cashed
Under 0.5 9.00 11% Lost −1.00 Miss
Draw 3.35 27% Cashed +2.35 Cashed
Over 3.5 4.20 21% Lost −1.00 Miss
Away Win 3.74 21% Lost −1.00 Miss
Total · 17 markets @ 1u each 8 W · 9 L −3.14u −18% ROI