Match Rio Ave vs Arouca January 31, 2026 — Result and Stats on Prognosist

Post-match · 90 sec read

AI picks Under 2.5 at 1.85 — +13.2% better than the market.

Rio Ave hosts Arouca in a tightly matched Primeira Liga clash. Rio Ave's stronger defensive setup and home momentum could challenge Arouca's modest attacking threat. Both sides show similar recent form, but Rio Ave's slight edge in quality and home comfort may tilt the balance.

Rio Ave's compact defense vs Arouca's limited offense
Close form trends suggest a cautious game
Odds hint at a low-scoring, tactical battle

P Recap generated by AI · 6 markets graded

Pick of the night · settled · Under 2.5

Under 2.5 @ 1.85 ✗ Lost

AI 61% Implied 54% −1.00u

−100%

ROI on stake

⛀ Lineups

RIO 3-4-3 · ARO 4-2-3-1

RIO · 3-4-3 4-2-3-1 · ARO

80 Pohlmann

Subs used · RIO

60'

Bezerra ↑ ·

Richards ↓

73'

Panzo ↑ ·

Lomboto ↓

73'

Spikic ↑ ·

Ntoi ↓

73'

Nikitscher ↑ ·

Papakanellos ↓

80'

Zoabi ↑ ·

Aguilera Zamora ↓

Subs used · ARO

68'

Popovic ↑ ·

Sanchez ↓

76'

Gozalbez ↑ ·

Barbero ↓

76'

Mansilla ↑ ·

Lee ↓

90+2'

Monteiro ↑ ·

van Ee ↓

90+2'

Santiago Perez ↑ ·

Esgaio ↓

📊 Statistics

RIO 0 – 3 ARO

51%

Possession (%)

49%

0.69

Expected Goals (xG) expected goals

1.47

Total Shots

Shots on Target

Shots off Target

Shots Inside Box

Corner Kicks

Offsides

Fouls

87%

Pass Accuracy (%)

88%

Yellow Cards

Goalkeeper Saves

⏱ Match events

16 · 0 – 3

14'

▮

Espen Van Ee

Yellow Card

44'

⚽

Tiago Esgaio

Assist · J. Fontan · 0–1

Half-time · 0 – 1

Francisco Petrasso

Yellow Card

▮

52'

54'

⚽

I. Barbero

0–2

Diogo Bezerra ↓ · O. Richards ↑

Substitution 1

⇄

60'

66'

⚽

H. Lee

Assist · B. Kuipers · 0–3

68'

⇄

B. Popovic ↓ · J. Sanchez ↑

Substitution 1

J. Panzo ↓ · J. Lomboto ↑

Substitution 2

⇄

73'

D. Spikic ↓ · A. Ntoi ↑

Substitution 3

⇄

73'

T. Nikitscher ↓ · A. Papakanellos ↑

Substitution 4

⇄

73'

76'

⇄

P. Gozalbez ↓ · I. Barbero ↑

Substitution 2

76'

⇄

B. Mansilla ↓ · H. Lee ↑

Substitution 3

K. Zoabi ↓ · B. Aguilera Zamora ↑

Substitution 5

⇄

80'

Clayton

Yellow Card

▮

82'

90+2'

⇄

D. Monteiro ↓ · E. van Ee ↑

Substitution 4

90+2'

⇄

J. Santiago Perez ↓ · Tiago Esgaio ↑

Substitution 5

Full-time · 0 – 3

Match recap

Arouca won 3–0 away at Rio Ave. At half-time it was 0–1.

On the balance of chances, the visitors held the expected-goals edge, 1.47 to 0.69. In attack, the visitors carried the greater threat — 18 shots to 8, 7 on target. At the back, the hosts leaned on their goalkeeper for 4 saves. In front of goal, the visitors were clinical, scoring 3 from 1.47 expected goals. For discipline, the referee produced 3 yellow cards.

On the scoresheet: Tiago Esgaio (44'), I. Barbero (54'), H. Lee (66').

Model audit for this match: of 17 graded markets, 8 landed and 9 missed, for a net -2.41 units (Brier 0.224).

⚖ Bet recap · markets settled

17 · 8 W · 9 L

Market	Odds	Closed	AI	Result	P/L · 1u
BTTS No	2.09	—	56%	Cashed	+1.09	Cashed
Under 2.5	1.85	—	61%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Home Win	2.67	—	46%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
AH Home 0	1.86	—	46%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Over 2.5	2.06	—	39%	Cashed	+1.06	Cashed
BTTS Yes	1.80	—	44%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
AH Away 0	2.09	—	27%	Cashed	+1.09	Cashed
Double Chance 1X	1.44	—	73%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Under 1.5	3.40	—	36%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Under 0.5	10.00	—	12%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Under 3.5	1.32	—	80%	Cashed	+0.32	Cashed
Double Chance X2	1.55	—	54%	Cashed	+0.55	Cashed
Away Win	3.05	—	27%	Cashed	+2.05	Cashed
Over 0.5	1.08	—	88%	Cashed	+0.08	Cashed
Draw	3.30	—	28%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Over 1.5	1.35	—	64%	Cashed	+0.35	Cashed
Over 3.5	3.51	—	20%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Total · 17 markets @ 1u each	—	—	—	8 W · 9 L	−2.41u	−14% ROI