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Home › Portugal › Primeira Liga › Alverca — Moreirense

Predictions by Market: Alverca vs Moreirense

Portugal   /   Primeira Liga Value pick inside
Alverca
Alverca
Home · last 5 L W L D L
Kick-off
Sat 17 Jan · 18:00
2:1
Full-time
Moreirense
Moreirense
W L W L D Away · last 5
Complexo Desportivo FC Alverca · Alverkaduribajo Referee Luís Godinho, Portugal

Outcome probabilities

Home Win · ALV
29%
Best 2.36
Draw
29%
Best 2.87
Away Win · MOR
42%
Best 3.48
Value pick
Over 2.5
@ 2.50
Fair odds
2.33
book 2.50 · +7.3% vs market
Bookmakers polled
4
distinct bookmakers
Pick confidence
Medium
p 43% · EV +7.3%

Value pick isn't the most likely outcome — Under 2.5 is more likely (57%), but Over 2.5 is priced above the model's fair odds.

Match predictions

Simple model predictions for the main markets. Advanced model details are available below.

Most likely outcomes show what the model expects to happen. A betting pick also considers bookmaker prices, so it can differ from the most likely outcome.

Estimated probability — model's view. Implied probability — back-solved from the best book price. Bet quality: High Medium Low
FT Results 3 markets
✓ Home Win
Probability 29.1%
Odds 2.70
Show model details
Implied probability 37%
Bet quality Low
✓ Away Win Best in group
Probability 42.4%
Odds 2.95
Show model details
Implied probability 33.9%
Bet quality Medium
✓ Draw
Probability 28.5%
Odds 3.20
Show model details
Implied probability 31.3%
Bet quality Low
Totals 8 markets
✓ Over 2.5
Probability 42.9%
Odds 2.50
Show model details
Implied probability 40%
Bet quality Medium
✓ Under 2.5
Probability 57.1%
Odds 1.62
Show model details
Implied probability 61.7%
Bet quality Low
✓ Under 1.5
Probability 31.7%
Odds 2.75
Show model details
Implied probability 36.4%
Bet quality Low
✓ Over 3.5
Probability 22.6%
Odds 4.71
Show model details
Implied probability 21.2%
Bet quality Medium
✓ Over 1.5
Probability 68.3%
Odds 1.50
Show model details
Implied probability 66.7%
Bet quality Low
✓ Over 0.5 Best in group
Probability 89.8%
Odds 1.11
Show model details
Implied probability 90.1%
Bet quality Low
✓ Under 3.5
Probability 77.4%
Odds 1.20
Show model details
Implied probability 83.3%
Bet quality Low
✓ Under 0.5
Probability 10.2%
Odds 8.00
Show model details
Implied probability 12.5%
Bet quality Low
BTTS 2 markets
✓ BTTS Yes
Probability 48.3%
Odds 2.05
Show model details
Implied probability 48.8%
Bet quality Low
✓ BTTS No Best in group
Probability 51.7%
Odds 1.85
Show model details
Implied probability 54.1%
Bet quality Low
Asian Handicap 2 markets
✓ AH Away 0 Best in group
Probability 42.4%
Odds 2.02
Show model details
Implied probability 49.5%
Bet quality Low
✓ AH Home 0
Probability 29.1%
Odds 1.88
Show model details
Implied probability 53.2%
Bet quality Low
Other Markets 2 markets
✓ Double Chance X2 Top pick
Probability 70.9%
Odds 1.50
Show model details
Implied probability 66.7%
Bet quality Medium
✓ Double Chance 1X
Probability 57.6%
Odds 1.44
Show model details
Implied probability 69.4%
Bet quality Low

Predictions are model estimates based on data, not guaranteed outcomes. 18+ — please play responsibly.

Value pick of the night · Over 2.5
ALV – MOR @ 2.50
+7.3%
Edge
Forecast →