Alverca vs Moreirense 2:1 — Match Review & Stats

Post-match · 90 sec read

AI picks Over 2.5 at 2.50 — +7.3% better than the market.

Moreirense arrives with a clear quality edge and slightly better recent form, suggesting they can control the game despite being away. Alverca's home edge is modest, but their defensive solidity could keep things tight. Expect a tactical battle where Moreirense's sharper attack faces a disciplined Alverca defense, potentially limiting goal-scoring chances.

Moreirense's offensive edge against Alverca's defense
Alverca's compact block at home
Moderate pace hinted by balanced over/under odds

P Recap generated by AI · 6 markets graded

Pick of the night · settled · Over 2.5

Over 2.5 @ 2.50 ✓ Cashed

AI 43% Implied 40% +1.50u

+150%

ROI on stake

Lineups

ALV 3-4-3 · MOR 4-2-3-1

ALV · 3-4-3 4-2-3-1 · MOR

20 Figueiredo

Subs used · ALV

74'

Gui ↑ ·

Lincoln ↓

74'

Marezi ↑ ·

Lima ↓

85'

Nuozzi ↑ ·

Abdulai ↓

90+1'

Moreira ↑ ·

Amorim ↓

90+1'

Kauan ↑ ·

Touaizi ↓

Subs used · MOR

71'

Stjepanovic ↑ ·

Assis ↓

71'

Maranhao ↑ ·

Rodri ↓

77'

Landerson ↑ ·

Martinez ↓

Statistics

ALV 2 – 1 MOR

41%

Possession (%)

59%

2.41

Expected Goals (xG) expected goals

1.41

Total Shots

Shots on Target

Shots off Target

Shots Inside Box

Corner Kicks

Offsides

Fouls

83%

Pass Accuracy (%)

89%

Yellow Cards

Goalkeeper Saves

Match events

15 · 2 – 1

Half-time · 0 – 0

57'

▮

Michel Augusto

Yellow Card

N. Touaizi (P)

Penalty · 1–0

⚽

60'

62'

⚽

Rodri

1–1

Sandro Lima

Assist · N. Touaizi · 2–1

⚽

69'

71'

⇄

M. Stjepanovic ↓ · A. Assis ↑

Substitution 1

71'

⇄

Yan Maranhao ↓ · Rodri ↑

Substitution 2

D. Gui ↓ · Lincoln ↑

Substitution 1

⇄

74'

Marezi ↓ · Sandro Lima ↑

Substitution 2

⇄

74'

77'

⇄

Landerson ↓ · A. Martinez ↑

Substitution 3

André Gomes

Yellow Card

▮

83'

C. Nuozzi ↓ · S. Abdulai ↑

Substitution 3

⇄

85'

V. Moreira ↓ · Amorim ↑

Substitution 4

⇄

90+1'

Kauan ↓ · N. Touaizi ↑

Substitution 5

⇄

90+1'

Figueiredo

Yellow Card

▮

90+3'

Davy Gui

Yellow Card

▮

90+5'

Full-time · 2 – 1

Match recap

Alverca beat Moreirense 2–1 at home. At half-time it was 0–0.

In possession, the visitors ran the game with 59% of the ball. On the balance of chances, the hosts held the expected-goals edge, 2.41 to 1.41. In attack, the hosts carried the greater threat — 15 shots to 10, 3 on target. From set pieces, the hosts won the corner count, 4 to 0. For discipline, the referee produced 4 yellow cards.

On the scoresheet: N. Touaizi (60'), Rodri (62'), Sandro Lima (69').

Model audit for this match: of 17 graded markets, 8 landed and 9 missed, for a net -2.62 units (Brier 0.214).

Bet recap · markets settled

17 · 8 W · 9 L

Market	Odds	Closed	AI	Result	P/L · 1u
Over 2.5	2.50	—	43%	Cashed	+1.50	Cashed
BTTS Yes	2.05	—	48%	Cashed	+1.05	Cashed
BTTS No	1.85	—	52%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Under 2.5	1.62	—	57%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Under 1.5	2.75	—	32%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
AH Away 0	2.02	—	42%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Home Win	2.70	—	29%	Cashed	+1.70	Cashed
AH Home 0	1.88	—	29%	Cashed	+0.88	Cashed
Away Win	2.95	—	42%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Double Chance X2	1.50	—	71%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Over 3.5	4.71	—	23%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Over 1.5	1.50	—	68%	Cashed	+0.50	Cashed
Draw	3.20	—	29%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Double Chance 1X	1.44	—	58%	Cashed	+0.44	Cashed
Over 0.5	1.11	—	90%	Cashed	+0.11	Cashed
Under 3.5	1.20	—	77%	Cashed	+0.20	Cashed
Under 0.5	8.00	—	10%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Total · 17 markets @ 1u each	—	—	—	8 W · 9 L	−2.62u	−15% ROI

Alverca vs Moreirense 2:1: Match Review & Stats

Model verdict

⛀ Lineups

📊 Statistics

⏱ Match events

Match recap

⚖ Bet recap · markets settled

Lineups

Statistics

Match events

Bet recap · markets settled