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Home › Portugal › Primeira Liga › Sporting CP — Casa Pia

Predictions by Market: Sporting CP vs Casa Pia

Portugal   /   Primeira Liga Value pick inside
Sporting CP
Sporting CP
Home · last 5 D D W W W
Kick-off
Fri 16 Jan · 20:15
3:0
Full-time
Casa Pia
Casa Pia
L W D D W Away · last 5
Estádio José Alvalade · Lisbon Referee David Rafael Oliveira da Silva, Portugal

Outcome probabilities

Home Win · SPO
84%
Best 1.18
Draw
13%
Best 7.10
Away Win · CAS
4%
Best 13.38
Value pick
Over 3.5
@ 2.26
Fair odds
2.05
book 2.26 · +10.4% vs market
Bookmakers polled
4
distinct bookmakers
Pick confidence
Medium
p 49% · EV +10.4%

Value pick isn't the most likely outcome — Under 3.5 is more likely (51%), but Over 3.5 is priced above the model's fair odds.

Match predictions

Simple model predictions for the main markets. Advanced model details are available below.

Most likely outcomes show what the model expects to happen. A betting pick also considers bookmaker prices, so it can differ from the most likely outcome.

Estimated probability — model's view. Implied probability — back-solved from the best book price. Bet quality: High Medium Low
FT Results 3 markets
✓ Draw
Probability 13%
Odds 9.15
Show model details
Implied probability 10.9%
Bet quality Medium
✓ Home Win Top pick
Probability 83.5%
Odds 1.17
Show model details
Implied probability 85.5%
Bet quality Medium
✓ Away Win
Probability 3.5%
Odds 21.00
Show model details
Implied probability 4.8%
Bet quality Low
Totals 8 markets
✓ Over 3.5
Probability 48.8%
Odds 2.26
Show model details
Implied probability 44.3%
Bet quality Medium
✓ Under 3.5
Probability 51.2%
Odds 1.70
Show model details
Implied probability 58.8%
Bet quality Low
✓ Under 2.5
Probability 30.9%
Odds 2.65
Show model details
Implied probability 37.7%
Bet quality Low
✓ Over 2.5
Probability 69.2%
Odds 1.52
Show model details
Implied probability 65.8%
Bet quality Medium
✓ Over 1.5
Probability 86.8%
Odds 1.16
Show model details
Implied probability 86.2%
Bet quality Low
✓ Over 0.5 Best in group
Probability 96.3%
Odds 1.03
Show model details
Implied probability 97.1%
Bet quality Low
✓ Under 1.5
Probability 13.2%
Odds 6.00
Show model details
Implied probability 16.7%
Bet quality Low
✓ Under 0.5
Probability 3.7%
Odds 19.50
Show model details
Implied probability 5.1%
Bet quality Low
BTTS 2 markets
✓ BTTS Yes
Probability 47.1%
Odds 2.55
Show model details
Implied probability 39.2%
Bet quality Medium
✓ BTTS No Best in group
Probability 52.9%
Odds 1.62
Show model details
Implied probability 61.7%
Bet quality Low
Asian Handicap 2 markets
✓ AH Home 0 Top pick
Probability 83.5%
Odds 1.03
Show model details
Implied probability 97.1%
Bet quality Medium
✓ AH Away 0
Probability 3.5%
Odds 12.50
Show model details
Implied probability 8%
Bet quality Low
Other Markets 2 markets
✓ Double Chance 1X Top pick
Probability 96.5%
Odds 1.03
Show model details
Implied probability 97.1%
Bet quality Medium
✓ Double Chance X2
Probability 16.5%
Odds 6.20
Show model details
Implied probability 16.1%
Bet quality Low

Predictions are model estimates based on data, not guaranteed outcomes. 18+ — please play responsibly.

Value pick of the night · Over 3.5
SPO – CAS @ 2.26
+10.4%
Edge
Forecast →