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Home › Portugal › Primeira Liga › Rio Ave — Benfica

Rio Ave vs Benfica 0:2: Match Review & Stats

Portugal   /   Primeira Liga Value pick inside
Rio Ave
Rio Ave
Home · last 5 D L D L D
Kick-off
Sat 17 Jan · 20:30
0:2
Full-time
Benfica
Benfica
W W D D W Away · last 5
Estádio dos Arcos · Condi Town Referee Claudio Filipe Ruivo Pereira, Portugal
Miss
BTTS Yes
BTTS Yes
AI 49% · book 2.25 ✗
Hit
Under 2.5
Under 2.5
AI 44% · book 2.25 ✓
Miss
Over 2.5
Over 2.5
AI 56% · book 1.74 ✗
Total goals
2
0 · 2
xG (open play)
0.19 – 2.48
Δ −2.29
Possession
37% – 63%
AI accuracy
8 / 17
picks cashed

Model verdict

Post-match · 90 sec read

AI picks BTTS Yes at 2.25 — +11.1% better than the market.

Benfica arrives with a clear quality edge and recent strong form, suggesting they hold the upper hand despite playing away. Rio Ave’s home momentum and compact defensive block could limit Benfica’s attacking threat, but the visitors’ superior offensive firepower and tactical discipline likely tilt the balance. Expect a controlled pace with chances for both sides, as Rio Ave’s resilience meets Benfica’s pressing edge.

  • Benfica’s attacking quality outmatches Rio Ave’s defense.
  • Home side’s recent form shows fighting spirit.
  • Moderate tempo favors tactical discipline over wild open play.

P Recap generated by AI · 6 markets graded
Pick of the night · settled · BTTS Yes
BTTS Yes @ 2.25 ✗ Lost
AI 49% Implied 44% −1.00u
−100%
ROI on stake

Lineups

RIO 3-4-2-1 · BEN 4-2-3-1
Subs used · RIO
72' Papakanellos ↑ · Athanasiou ↓
73' Nikitscher ↑ · Ntoi ↓
73' Pohlmann ↑ · Luiz ↓
80' Bezerra ↑ · Spikic ↓
80' Liavas ↑ · Aguilera Zamora ↓
Subs used · BEN
62' Lopes Cabral ↑ · Schjelderup ↓
78' Rego ↑ · Prestianni ↓
90' Manu ↑ · Sudakov ↓

Statistics

RIO 0 – 2 BEN
37%
Possession (%)
63%
0.19
Expected Goals (xG) expected goals
2.48
7
Total Shots
24
1
Shots on Target
8
2
Shots off Target
11
3
Shots Inside Box
15
3
Corner Kicks
11
2
Offsides
0
12
Fouls
8
82%
Pass Accuracy (%)
90%
1
Yellow Cards
2
5
Goalkeeper Saves
1

Match events

13 · 0 – 2
16'
⚽
L. Barreiro
Assist · G. Sudakov · 0–1
25'
⚽
A. Ntoi
Own goal · 0–2
Half-time · 0 – 2
59'
▮
Andreas Schjelderup
Yellow Card
62'
⇄
S. Lopes Cabral ↓ · A. Schjelderup ↑
Substitution 1
Andreas Ndoj
Yellow Card
▮
66'
A. Papakanellos ↓ · N. Athanasiou ↑
Substitution 1
⇄
72'
T. Nikitscher ↓ · A. Ntoi ↑
Substitution 2
⇄
73'
O. Pohlmann ↓ · Andre Luiz ↑
Substitution 3
⇄
73'
78'
⇄
J. Rego ↓ · G. Prestianni ↑
Substitution 2
Diogo Bezerra ↓ · D. Spikic ↑
Substitution 4
⇄
80'
G. Liavas ↓ · B. Aguilera Zamora ↑
Substitution 5
⇄
80'
90'
⇄
Manu ↓ · G. Sudakov ↑
Substitution 3
90+1'
▮
Samuel Dahl
Yellow Card
Full-time · 0 – 2

Match recap

Benfica won 2–0 away at Rio Ave. At half-time it was 0–2.

In possession, the visitors ran the game with 63% of the ball. For accuracy, the visitors completed 90% of their passes. On the balance of chances, the visitors held the expected-goals edge, 2.48 to 0.19. In attack, the visitors carried the greater threat — 24 shots to 7, 8 on target. From set pieces, the visitors won the corner count, 11 to 3. At the back, the hosts leaned on their goalkeeper for 5 saves. For discipline, the referee produced 3 yellow cards.

On the scoresheet: L. Barreiro (16'), A. Ntoi (25').

Model audit for this match: of 17 graded markets, 8 landed and 9 missed, for a net -5.71 units (Brier 0.099).

Bet recap · markets settled

17 · 8 W · 9 L
Market Odds Closed AI Result P/L · 1u
BTTS Yes 2.25 — 49% Lost −1.00 Miss
Under 2.5 2.25 — 44% Cashed +1.25 Cashed
Over 2.5 1.74 — 56% Lost −1.00 Miss
BTTS No 1.80 — 51% Cashed +0.80 Cashed
Double Chance X2 1.09 — 93% Cashed +0.09 Cashed
Away Win 1.34 — 75% Cashed +0.34 Cashed
Under 3.5 1.50 — 66% Cashed +0.50 Cashed
Over 3.5 2.85 — 34% Lost −1.00 Miss
AH Away 0 1.05 — 75% Cashed +0.05 Cashed
Draw 5.43 — 18% Lost −1.00 Miss
Over 0.5 1.04 — 94% Cashed +0.04 Cashed
Under 1.5 4.50 — 21% Lost −1.00 Miss
Over 1.5 1.22 — 79% Cashed +0.22 Cashed
Under 0.5 15.00 — 6% Lost −1.00 Miss
Double Chance 1X 3.50 — 25% Lost −1.00 Miss
Home Win 10.50 — 7% Lost −1.00 Miss
AH Home 0 6.85 — 7% Lost −1.00 Miss
Total · 17 markets @ 1u each — — — 8 W · 9 L −5.71u −34% ROI
Value pick of the night · BTTS Yes
RIO – BEN @ 2.25
+11.1%
Edge
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