Estrela vs SC Braga 3:3 — Match Review & Stats

Post-match · 90 sec read

AI picks BTTS Yes at 2.07 — +13.0% better than the market.

SC Braga enters this clash with a clear quality edge and a pressing advantage on the road, backed by a strong recent run of wins. Estrela’s home momentum is decent but their defensive resilience will be tested against Braga’s sharper attack. Expect a lively tempo with both sides pushing forward, likely resulting in multiple goal-scoring opportunities.

Braga’s offensive threat vs Estrela’s defense
Home side’s compact block challenged by away pressing
Recent form favors Braga’s confidence and control

P Recap generated by AI · 6 markets graded

Pick of the night · settled · BTTS Yes

BTTS Yes @ 2.07 ✓ Cashed

AI 55% Implied 48% +1.07u

+107%

ROI on stake

Lineups

EST 4-2-3-1 · BRA 3-4-3

EST · 4-2-3-1 3-4-3 · BRA

98 Kikas ⚽

Subs used · EST

56'

Meireles ↑ ·

Sola ↓

56'

Montoia ↑ ·

Otavio ↓

79'

Pinho ↑ ·

Kikas ↓

80'

Stoica ↑ ·

Jovane ↓

88'

Souza ↑ ·

Marcus ↓

Subs used · BRA

46'

Zalazar ↑ ·

Moscardo ↓

68'

Grillitsch ↑ ·

Moutinho ↓

68'

Martinez ↑ ·

Dorgeles ↓

77'

Rodrigues ↑ ·

Navarro ↓

Statistics

EST 3 – 3 BRA

42%

Possession (%)

58%

1.15

Expected Goals (xG) expected goals

3.20

Total Shots

Shots on Target

Shots off Target

Shots Inside Box

Corner Kicks

Offsides

Fouls

76%

Pass Accuracy (%)

86%

Yellow Cards

Goalkeeper Saves

Match events

18 · 3 – 3

Oumar Ngom

Yellow Card

▮

11'

12'

⚽

J. Moutinho (P)

Penalty · 0–1

Kikas

Assist · P. Moreira · 1–1

⚽

16'

35'

▮

Bright Arrey-Mbi

Yellow Card

Half-time · 1 – 1

46'

⇄

R. Zalazar ↓ · Gabriel Moscardo ↑

Substitution 1

Jovane Cabral

Yellow Card

▮

49'

51'

⚽

F. Navarro

1–2

J. Meireles ↓ · A. Sola ↑

Substitution 1

⇄

56'

G. Montoia ↓ · Otavio ↑

Substitution 2

⇄

56'

64'

⚽

R. Zalazar

1–3

68'

⇄

F. Grillitsch ↓ · J. Moutinho ↑

Substitution 2

68'

⇄

G. Martinez ↓ · M. Dorgeles ↑

Substitution 3

Jovane

Assist · J. Encada · 2–3

⚽

69'

A. Marcus

3–3

⚽

73'

77'

⇄

D. Rodrigues ↓ · F. Navarro ↑

Substitution 4

Rodrigo Pinho ↓ · Kikas ↑

Substitution 3

⇄

79'

I. Stoica ↓ · Jovane ↑

Substitution 4

⇄

80'

Alisson Souza ↓ · A. Marcus ↑

Substitution 5

⇄

88'

Full-time · 3 – 3

Match recap

Estrela and SC Braga drew 3–3. At half-time it was 1–1.

In possession, the visitors ran the game with 58% of the ball. For accuracy, the visitors completed 86% of their passes. On the balance of chances, the visitors held the expected-goals edge, 3.20 to 1.15. In front of goal, the hosts were clinical, scoring 3 from 1.15 expected goals. For discipline, the referee produced 3 yellow cards.

On the scoresheet: J. Moutinho (12'), Kikas (16'), F. Navarro (51'), R. Zalazar (64'), Jovane (69'), A. Marcus (73').

Model audit for this match: of 17 graded markets, 8 landed and 9 missed, for a net +0.85 units (Brier 0.221).

Bet recap · markets settled

17 · 8 W · 9 L

Market	Odds	Closed	AI	Result	P/L · 1u
Over 2.5	1.92	—	57%	Cashed	+0.92	Cashed
BTTS Yes	2.07	—	55%	Cashed	+1.07	Cashed
Under 2.5	2.01	—	43%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Double Chance 1X	2.71	—	32%	Cashed	+1.71	Cashed
BTTS No	1.83	—	45%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Away Win	1.52	—	68%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Over 3.5	3.35	—	35%	Cashed	+2.35	Cashed
Double Chance X2	1.13	—	90%	Cashed	+0.13	Cashed
AH Away 0	1.17	—	68%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Over 1.5	1.28	—	79%	Cashed	+0.28	Cashed
Over 0.5	1.06	—	94%	Cashed	+0.06	Cashed
Draw	4.33	—	22%	Cashed	+3.33	Cashed
Under 3.5	1.39	—	65%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Under 1.5	3.85	—	21%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Under 0.5	13.00	—	6%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Home Win	7.12	—	10%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
AH Home 0	5.35	—	10%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Total · 17 markets @ 1u each	—	—	—	8 W · 9 L	+0.85u	+5% ROI

Estrela vs SC Braga 3:3: Match Review & Stats

Model verdict

⛀ Lineups

📊 Statistics

⏱ Match events

Match recap

⚖ Bet recap · markets settled

Lineups

Statistics

Match events

Bet recap · markets settled