Match Benfica vs Estoril January 3, 2026 — Result and Stats on Prognosist

Post-match · 90 sec read

AI picks BTTS Yes at 2.25 — +12.6% better than the market.

Benfica holds a clear quality edge over Estoril, backed by stronger recent form and a notable home advantage. Their potent attack faces a relatively vulnerable Estoril defense, suggesting Benfica can control the game tempo and create chances. Expect a disciplined defensive setup from Estoril aiming to frustrate, but Benfica's home momentum and offensive pressure should prevail.

Home edge in defense and offense favors Benfica's control
Estoril's solid but less effective defense tested by Benfica's attack
Moderate pace expected, balancing attacking intent and defensive caution

P Recap generated by AI · 6 markets graded

Pick of the night · settled · BTTS Yes

BTTS Yes @ 2.25 ✓ Cashed

AI 50% Implied 44% +1.25u

+125%

ROI on stake

⛀ Lineups

BEN 4-2-3-1 · EST 4-4-2

BEN · 4-2-3-1 4-4-2 · EST

14 Pavlidis ⚽

Subs used · BEN

77'

Aursnes ↑ ·

Prestianni ↓

77'

Lopes Cabral ↑ ·

Sudakov ↓

87'

Ivanovic ↑ ·

Pavlidis ↓

90+2'

Rego ↑ ·

Barreiro ↓

Subs used · EST

59'

Tsoungui ↑ ·

Sanchez ↓

66'

Garcia ↑ ·

Marques ↓

77'

Pizzi ↑ ·

Jandro ↓

77'

Parente ↑ ·

Amaral ↓

📊 Statistics

BEN 3 – 1 EST

51%

Possession (%)

49%

2.33

Expected Goals (xG) expected goals

0.83

Total Shots

Shots on Target

Shots off Target

Shots Inside Box

Corner Kicks

Offsides

Fouls

82%

Pass Accuracy (%)

85%

Yellow Cards

Goalkeeper Saves

⏱ Match events

14 · 3 – 1

V. Pavlidis (P)

Penalty · 1–0

⚽

34'

V. Pavlidis

Assist · L. Barreiro · 2–0

⚽

45'

⚽

J. Carvalho

Assist · R. Guitane · 2–1

Half-time · 2 – 1

59'

⇄

A. Tsoungui ↓ · R. Sanchez ↑

Substitution 1

66'

⇄

F. Garcia ↓ · A. Marques ↑

Substitution 2

69'

▮

Felix Bacher

Yellow Card

F. Aursnes ↓ · G. Prestianni ↑

Substitution 1

⇄

77'

S. Lopes Cabral ↓ · G. Sudakov ↑

Substitution 2

⇄

77'

⇄

Pizzi ↓ · Jandro ↑

Substitution 3

77'

⇄

T. Parente ↓ · P. Amaral ↑

Substitution 4

V. Pavlidis

3–1

⚽

80'

87'

▮

Tiago Parente

Yellow Card

F. Ivanovic ↓ · V. Pavlidis ↑

Substitution 3

⇄

87'

J. Rego ↓ · L. Barreiro ↑

Substitution 4

⇄

90+2'

Full-time · 3 – 1

Match recap

Benfica beat Estoril 3–1 at home. At half-time it was 2–1.

On the balance of chances, the hosts held the expected-goals edge, 2.33 to 0.83. In attack, the hosts carried the greater threat — 20 shots to 9, 3 on target. From set pieces, the hosts won the corner count, 7 to 3.

On the scoresheet: V. Pavlidis (34'), V. Pavlidis (45'), J. Carvalho (45'), V. Pavlidis (80').

Model audit for this match: of 17 graded markets, 8 landed and 9 missed, for a net -5.16 units (Brier 0.105).

⚖ Bet recap · markets settled

17 · 8 W · 9 L

Market	Odds	Closed	AI	Result	P/L · 1u
BTTS Yes	2.25	—	50%	Cashed	+1.25	Cashed
Under 3.5	1.64	—	61%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Under 2.5	2.55	—	39%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Over 3.5	2.43	—	39%	Cashed	+1.43	Cashed
BTTS No	1.80	—	50%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Draw	6.61	—	16%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Double Chance 1X	1.06	—	95%	Cashed	+0.06	Cashed
Home Win	1.27	—	79%	Cashed	+0.27	Cashed
Over 2.5	1.57	—	61%	Cashed	+0.57	Cashed
AH Home 0	1.04	—	79%	Cashed	+0.04	Cashed
Under 1.5	5.50	—	18%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Over 0.5	1.04	—	95%	Cashed	+0.04	Cashed
Over 1.5	1.18	—	82%	Cashed	+0.18	Cashed
Double Chance X2	4.37	—	22%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Under 0.5	18.00	—	5%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Away Win	13.50	—	5%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
AH Away 0	6.90	—	5%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Total · 17 markets @ 1u each	—	—	—	8 W · 9 L	−5.16u	−30% ROI