Match Alverca vs FC Porto December 22, 2025 — Result and Stats on Prognosist

Post-match · 90 sec read

AI picks Over 2.5 at 1.96 — +11.7% better than the market.

FC Porto arrives with a commanding quality edge and a flawless recent run, contrasting with Alverca's mixed form. Despite Alverca's slight home momentum, Porto's offensive power faces a less resilient defense, suggesting they can break through. The balanced odds on goals hint at an open game, where Porto's pressing and set-piece threat could dominate.

Porto's superior quality and form advantage
Alverca's defensive struggles against strong attacks
Potential for a lively, goal-rich encounter

P Recap generated by AI · 6 markets graded

Pick of the night · settled · Over 2.5

Over 2.5 @ 1.96 ✓ Cashed

AI 57% Implied 51% +0.96u

+96%

ROI on stake

⛀ Lineups

ALV 3-4-3 · POR 4-3-3

ALV · 3-4-3 4-3-3 · POR

20 Figueiredo

Subs used · ALV

67'

Leite ↑ ·

Marezi ↓

73'

Nuozzi ↑ ·

Lincoln ↓

84'

Gui ↑ ·

Amorim ↓

84'

Lima ↑ ·

Figueiredo ↓

Subs used · POR

46'

Moura ↑ ·

Costa ↓

59'

Gomes ↑ ·

Pepê ↓

59'

Veiga ↑ ·

Mora ↓

75'

Eustaquio ↑ ·

Varela ↓

80'

Gul ↑ ·

Sainz ↓

📊 Statistics

ALV 0 – 3 POR

40%

Possession (%)

60%

0.73

Expected Goals (xG) expected goals

1.45

Total Shots

Shots on Target

Shots off Target

Shots Inside Box

Corner Kicks

Offsides

Fouls

79%

Pass Accuracy (%)

89%

Yellow Cards

Goalkeeper Saves

⏱ Match events

14 · 0 – 3

29'

⚽

B. Sainz

Assist · R. Mora · 0–1

Half-time · 0 – 1

46'

⇄

F. Moura ↓ · A. Costa ↑

Substitution 1

57'

⚽

A. Varela

0–2

59'

⇄

William Gomes ↓ · Pepê ↑

Substitution 2

59'

⇄

G. Veiga ↓ · R. Mora ↑

Substitution 3

63'

▮

Borja Sainz

Yellow Card

T. Leite ↓ · Marezi ↑

Substitution 1

⇄

67'

69'

⚽

B. Sainz

Assist · F. Moura · 0–3

C. Nuozzi ↓ · Lincoln ↑

Substitution 2

⇄

73'

75'

⇄

S. Eustaquio ↓ · A. Varela ↑

Substitution 4

80'

⇄

D. Gul ↓ · B. Sainz ↑

Substitution 5

D. Gui ↓ · Amorim ↑

Substitution 3

⇄

84'

Felipe Lima ↓ · Figueiredo ↑

Substitution 4

⇄

84'

Sabit Abdulai

Yellow Card

▮

85'

Full-time · 0 – 3

Match recap

FC Porto won 3–0 away at Alverca. At half-time it was 0–1.

In possession, the visitors ran the game with 60% of the ball. For accuracy, the visitors completed 89% of their passes. On the balance of chances, the visitors held the expected-goals edge, 1.45 to 0.73. In attack, the visitors carried the greater threat — 14 shots to 8, 6 on target. From set pieces, the hosts won the corner count, 4 to 1. At the back, the visitors leaned on their goalkeeper for 5 saves. In front of goal, the visitors were clinical, scoring 3 from 1.45 expected goals.

On the scoresheet: B. Sainz (29'), A. Varela (57'), B. Sainz (69').

Model audit for this match: of 17 graded markets, 8 landed and 9 missed, for a net -6.10 units (Brier 0.089).

⚖ Bet recap · markets settled

17 · 8 W · 9 L

Market	Odds	Closed	AI	Result	P/L · 1u
Over 2.5	1.96	—	57%	Cashed	+0.96	Cashed
BTTS Yes	2.33	—	51%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Under 2.5	1.96	—	43%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
BTTS No	1.62	—	49%	Cashed	+0.62	Cashed
Away Win	1.40	—	73%	Cashed	+0.40	Cashed
Over 3.5	3.40	—	35%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Double Chance X2	1.09	—	93%	Cashed	+0.09	Cashed
Double Chance 1X	3.15	—	27%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
AH Away 0	1.10	—	73%	Cashed	+0.10	Cashed
Over 1.5	1.32	—	79%	Cashed	+0.32	Cashed
Over 0.5	1.07	—	94%	Cashed	+0.07	Cashed
Draw	4.98	—	20%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Under 3.5	1.34	—	65%	Cashed	+0.34	Cashed
Under 1.5	3.60	—	21%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Home Win	10.25	—	7%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Under 0.5	11.00	—	6%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
AH Home 0	6.80	—	7%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Total · 17 markets @ 1u each	—	—	—	8 W · 9 L	−6.10u	−36% ROI