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Home › Portugal › Primeira Liga › Rio Ave — Guimaraes

Rio Ave vs Guimaraes 0:1: Match Review & Stats

Portugal   /   Primeira Liga Value pick inside
Rio Ave
Rio Ave
Home · last 5 D L D L D
Kick-off
Sat 13 Dec · 18:00
0:1
Full-time
Guimaraes
Guimaraes
W W L L L Away · last 5
Estádio dos Arcos · Condi Town Referee Pedro Ramalho, Portugal
Miss
Home Win
Home Win
AI 39% · book 2.78 ✗
Hit
BTTS No
BTTS No
AI 52% · book 2.02 ✓
Hit
Under 2.5
Under 2.5
AI 57% · book 1.82 ✓
Total goals
1
0 · 1
xG (open play)
0.44 – 1.73
Δ −1.29
Possession
43% – 57%
AI accuracy
8 / 17
picks cashed

Model verdict

Post-match · 90 sec read

AI picks Home Win at 2.78 — +8.5% better than the market.

Rio Ave hosts Guimaraes in a tightly matched Primeira Liga clash. Rio Ave's home edge is moderate, supported by a solid defensive setup that counters Guimaraes' less potent attack. Both sides show similar overall quality, but Rio Ave's slightly better recent form and higher expected goals suggest they hold a subtle momentum advantage.

  • Compact defensive block from Rio Ave
  • Guimaraes' pressing may struggle against home resilience
  • Moderate pace expected, favoring tactical discipline

Expect a cautious game with limited clear-cut chances. The balance of power leans slightly to the hosts, but Guimaraes' resilience could keep it tight, hinting at a low-scoring encounter.

P Recap generated by AI · 6 markets graded
Pick of the night · settled · Home Win
Home Win @ 2.78 ✗ Lost
AI 39% Implied 36% −1.00u
−100%
ROI on stake

Lineups

RIO 3-4-3 · GUI 4-4-2
RIO · 3-4-3 4-4-2 · GUI 1 Miszta 23 Petrasso 4 Panzo 6 Abbey 17 Vrousai 44 Nikitscher 10 Aguilera 3 Athanasiou 11 Luiz 9 Clayton 80 Pohlmann 25 Castillo 2 Maga 4 Rivas 26 Abascal 13 Mendes 18 Arcanjo 16 Mukendi 30 Nogueira 48 Saviolo 90 Ndoye 19 Camara ⚽
Subs used · RIO
46' Brabec ↑ · Petrasso ↓
46' Liavas ↑ · Pohlmann ↓
78' Papakanellos ↑ · Nikitscher ↓
78' Tome ↑ · Abbey ↓
89' Zoabi ↑ · Aguilera Zamora ↓
Subs used · GUI
46' Strata ↑ · Maga ↓
59' Samu ↑ · Arcanjo ↓
67' Mitrovic ↑ · Beni ↓
67' Oliveira ↑ · Ndoye ↓
73' Felix ↑ · Saviolo ↓

Statistics

RIO 0 – 1 GUI
43%
Possession (%)
57%
0.44
Expected Goals (xG) expected goals
1.73
7
Total Shots
16
2
Shots on Target
3
4
Shots off Target
8
5
Shots Inside Box
8
6
Corner Kicks
6
0
Offsides
1
15
Fouls
15
86%
Pass Accuracy (%)
88%
4
Yellow Cards
4
2
Goalkeeper Saves
2

Match events

20 · 0 – 1
Marios Vrousai
Yellow Card
▮
18'
26'
▮
Miguel Maga
Yellow Card
Marios Vrousai
Yellow Card
▮
29'
Francisco Petrasso
Yellow Card
▮
29'
Marios Vrousai
Red Card
▮
29'
35'
⚽
O. Camara
0–1
Half-time · 0 – 1
J. Brabec ↓ · F. Petrasso ↑
Substitution 1
⇄
46'
G. Liavas ↓ · O. Pohlmann ↑
Substitution 2
⇄
46'
46'
⇄
T. Strata ↓ · Maga ↑
Substitution 1
59'
⇄
Samu ↓ · T. Arcanjo ↑
Substitution 2
60'
▮
Rodrigo Abascal
Yellow Card
63'
▮
Beni Mukendi
Yellow Card
67'
⇄
M. Mitrovic ↓ · Beni ↑
Substitution 3
67'
⇄
N. Oliveira ↓ · A. Ndoye ↑
Substitution 4
Clayton
Yellow Card
▮
70'
73'
⇄
V. Felix ↓ · N. Saviolo ↑
Substitution 5
A. Papakanellos ↓ · T. Nikitscher ↑
Substitution 3
⇄
78'
J. Tome ↓ · N. Abbey ↑
Substitution 4
⇄
78'
K. Zoabi ↓ · B. Aguilera Zamora ↑
Substitution 5
⇄
89'
90+1'
▮
Vando Félix
Yellow Card
Full-time · 0 – 1

Match recap

Guimaraes won 1–0 away at Rio Ave. At half-time it was 0–1.

In possession, the visitors ran the game with 57% of the ball. On the balance of chances, the visitors held the expected-goals edge, 1.73 to 0.44. In attack, the visitors carried the greater threat — 16 shots to 7, 3 on target. For discipline, the referee produced 8 yellow cards.

On the scoresheet: O. Camara (35'). Marios Vrousai was sent off in the 29' minute.

Model audit for this match: of 17 graded markets, 8 landed and 9 missed, for a net -1.19 units (Brier 0.219).

Bet recap · markets settled

17 · 8 W · 9 L
Market Odds Closed AI Result P/L · 1u
Home Win 2.78 — 39% Lost −1.00 Miss
BTTS No 2.02 — 52% Cashed +1.02 Cashed
Under 2.5 1.82 — 57% Cashed +0.82 Cashed
Away Win 2.70 — 35% Cashed +1.70 Cashed
Over 2.5 2.10 — 43% Lost −1.00 Miss
BTTS Yes 1.86 — 48% Lost −1.00 Miss
AH Home 0 1.97 — 39% Lost −1.00 Miss
AH Away 0 1.97 — 35% Cashed +0.97 Cashed
Double Chance 1X 1.51 — 65% Lost −1.00 Miss
Double Chance X2 1.52 — 61% Cashed +0.52 Cashed
Under 1.5 3.40 — 31% Cashed +2.40 Cashed
Under 3.5 1.31 — 77% Cashed +0.31 Cashed
Under 0.5 10.00 — 10% Lost −1.00 Miss
Over 0.5 1.07 — 90% Cashed +0.07 Cashed
Over 1.5 1.38 — 69% Lost −1.00 Miss
Draw 3.45 — 26% Lost −1.00 Miss
Over 3.5 3.80 — 23% Lost −1.00 Miss
Total · 17 markets @ 1u each — — — 8 W · 9 L −1.19u −7% ROI
Value pick of the night · Home Win
RIO – GUI @ 2.78
+8.5%
Edge
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