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⚽ Football 📈 Forecasts
Football › England › Premier League › Chelsea — Burnley

Match Chelsea vs Burnley February 21, 2026

England   /   Premier League Value pick inside
Chelsea
Chelsea
Home · last 5 L L D W L
Kick-off
Sat 21 Feb · 15:00
1:1
Full-time
Burnley
Burnley
L L D L D Away · last 5
Stamford Bridge · London Referee Lewis Smith, England
Hit
Under 3.5
Under 3.5
AI 62% · book 1.77 ✓
Hit
Under 2.5
Under 2.5
AI 41% · book 2.78 ✓
Miss
BTTS No
BTTS No
AI 54% · book 1.85 ✗
Total goals
2
1 · 1
xG (open play)
1.88 – 0.78
Δ +1.10
Possession
67% – 33%
AI accuracy
8 / 17
picks cashed
Post-match · 90 sec read

AI picks Under 3.5 at 1.77 — +10.2% better than the market.

Chelsea enters this clash with strong home momentum, boasting a solid recent run and a clear quality edge over Burnley. Their attacking threat is well-matched against Burnley’s defensive struggles, suggesting Chelsea’s pressing and creativity could dominate. The home side’s compact block and set-piece threat add further layers to their advantage.

  • Home momentum with four wins in last five
  • Superior attacking firepower against a leaky defense
  • Likely control of tempo at Stamford Bridge

P Recap generated by AI · 6 markets graded
Pick of the night · settled · Under 3.5
Under 3.5 @ 1.77 ✓ Cashed
AI 62% Implied 57% +0.77u
+77%
ROI on stake

⛀ Lineups

CHE 4-2-3-1 · BUR 3-4-2-1
CHE · 4-2-3-1 3-4-2-1 · BUR 1 Sánchez 24 James 29 Fofana 23 Chalobah 27 Gusto 25 Caicedo 17 Santos 10 Palmer 8 Fernández 7 Neto 20 Pedro ⚽ 1 Dúbravka 2 Walker 4 Worrall 5 Estève 29 Laurent 8 Ugochukwu 28 Mejbri 12 Humphreys 10 Edwards 11 Anthony 19 Flemming ⚽
Subs used · CHE
75' Adarabioyo ↑ · Palmer ↓
80' Hato ↑ · Gusto ↓
80' Delap ↑ · Pedro ↓
88' Sarr ↑ · Neto ↓
89' Acheampong ↑ · James ↓
Subs used · BUR
46' Pires ↑ · Walker ↓
57' Ward-Prowse ↑ · Ugochukwu ↓
78' Bruun Larsen ↑ · Laurent ↓
83' Tchaouna ↑ · Humphreys ↓
84' Barnes ↑ · Anthony ↓

📊 Statistics

CHE 1 – 1 BUR
67%
Possession (%)
33%
1.88
Expected Goals (xG) expected goals
0.78
12
Total Shots
12
2
Shots on Target
4
5
Shots off Target
6
7
Shots Inside Box
9
9
Corner Kicks
5
2
Offsides
3
12
Fouls
11
88%
Pass Accuracy (%)
79%
4
Yellow Cards
2
3
Goalkeeper Saves
1

⏱ Match events

19 · 1 – 1
-5'
▮
Josh Laurent
Yellow Card
Joao Pedro
Assist · P. Neto · 1–0
⚽
4'
30'
▮
Hannibal Mejbri
Yellow Card
Wesley Fofana
Yellow Card
▮
34'
Half-time · 1 – 0
46'
⇄
Lucas Pires ↓ · K. Walker ↑
Substitution 1
57'
⇄
J. Ward-Prowse ↓ · L. Ugochukwu ↑
Substitution 2
Wesley Fofana
Yellow Card
▮
72'
Wesley Fofana
Red Card
▮
72'
T. Adarabioyo ↓ · C. Palmer ↑
Substitution 1
⇄
75'
78'
⇄
J. Bruun Larsen ↓ · J. Laurent ↑
Substitution 3
J. Hato ↓ · M. Gusto ↑
Substitution 2
⇄
80'
L. Delap ↓ · Joao Pedro ↑
Substitution 3
⇄
80'
83'
⇄
L. Tchaouna ↓ · B. Humphreys ↑
Substitution 4
84'
⇄
A. Barnes ↓ · J. Anthony ↑
Substitution 5
M. Sarr ↓ · P. Neto ↑
Substitution 4
⇄
88'
J. Acheampong ↓ · R. James ↑
Substitution 5
⇄
89'
Robert Sánchez
Yellow Card
▮
90'
90'
⚽
Z. Flemming
Assist · J. Ward-Prowse · 1–1
Jorrel Hato
Yellow Card
▮
90+4'
Full-time · 1 – 1

⚖ Bet recap · markets settled

17 · 8 W · 9 L
Market Odds Closed AI Result P/L · 1u
Under 3.5 1.77 — 62% Cashed +0.77 Cashed
Under 2.5 2.78 — 41% Cashed +1.78 Cashed
BTTS No 1.85 — 54% Lost −1.00 Miss
BTTS Yes 2.05 — 46% Cashed +1.05 Cashed
Over 3.5 2.22 — 38% Lost −1.00 Miss
Under 1.5 6.10 — 19% Lost −1.00 Miss
Draw 7.50 — 15% Cashed +6.50 Cashed
Double Chance 1X 1.06 — 95% Cashed +0.06 Cashed
Home Win 1.24 — 80% Lost −1.00 Miss
Over 2.5 1.47 — 59% Lost −1.00 Miss
AH Home 0 1.05 — 80% Lost −1.00 Miss
Under 0.5 22.00 — 5% Lost −1.00 Miss
Over 0.5 1.03 — 95% Cashed +0.03 Cashed
Over 1.5 1.15 — 81% Cashed +0.15 Cashed
Double Chance X2 4.65 — 20% Cashed +3.65 Cashed
Away Win 14.20 — 5% Lost −1.00 Miss
AH Away 0 10.50 — 5% Lost −1.00 Miss
Total · 17 markets @ 1u each — — — 8 W · 9 L +4.99u +29% ROI
Best bet of the night · Under 3.5
CHE – BUR @ 1.77
+10.2%
Edge
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