Match Chelsea vs Burnley February 21, 2026 — Result and Stats on Prognosist

Post-match · 90 sec read

AI picks Under 3.5 at 1.77 — +10.2% better than the market.

Chelsea enters this clash with strong home momentum, boasting a solid recent run and a clear quality edge over Burnley. Their attacking threat is well-matched against Burnley’s defensive struggles, suggesting Chelsea’s pressing and creativity could dominate. The home side’s compact block and set-piece threat add further layers to their advantage.

Home momentum with four wins in last five
Superior attacking firepower against a leaky defense
Likely control of tempo at Stamford Bridge

P Recap generated by AI · 6 markets graded

Pick of the night · settled · Under 3.5

Under 3.5 @ 1.77 ✓ Cashed

AI 62% Implied 57% +0.77u

+77%

ROI on stake

⛀ Lineups

CHE 4-2-3-1 · BUR 3-4-2-1

CHE · 4-2-3-1 3-4-2-1 · BUR

20 Pedro ⚽

Subs used · CHE

75'

Adarabioyo ↑ ·

Palmer ↓

80'

Hato ↑ ·

Gusto ↓

80'

Delap ↑ ·

Pedro ↓

88'

Sarr ↑ ·

Neto ↓

89'

Acheampong ↑ ·

James ↓

Subs used · BUR

46'

Pires ↑ ·

Walker ↓

57'

Ward-Prowse ↑ ·

Ugochukwu ↓

78'

Bruun Larsen ↑ ·

Laurent ↓

83'

Tchaouna ↑ ·

Humphreys ↓

84'

Barnes ↑ ·

Anthony ↓

📊 Statistics

CHE 1 – 1 BUR

67%

Possession (%)

33%

1.88

Expected Goals (xG) expected goals

0.78

Total Shots

Shots on Target

Shots off Target

Shots Inside Box

Corner Kicks

Offsides

Fouls

88%

Pass Accuracy (%)

79%

Yellow Cards

Goalkeeper Saves

⏱ Match events

19 · 1 – 1

-5'

▮

Josh Laurent

Yellow Card

Joao Pedro

Assist · P. Neto · 1–0

⚽

30'

▮

Hannibal Mejbri

Yellow Card

Wesley Fofana

Yellow Card

▮

34'

Half-time · 1 – 0

46'

⇄

Lucas Pires ↓ · K. Walker ↑

Substitution 1

57'

⇄

J. Ward-Prowse ↓ · L. Ugochukwu ↑

Substitution 2

Wesley Fofana

Yellow Card

▮

72'

Wesley Fofana

Red Card

▮

72'

T. Adarabioyo ↓ · C. Palmer ↑

Substitution 1

⇄

75'

78'

⇄

J. Bruun Larsen ↓ · J. Laurent ↑

Substitution 3

J. Hato ↓ · M. Gusto ↑

Substitution 2

⇄

80'

L. Delap ↓ · Joao Pedro ↑

Substitution 3

⇄

80'

83'

⇄

L. Tchaouna ↓ · B. Humphreys ↑

Substitution 4

84'

⇄

A. Barnes ↓ · J. Anthony ↑

Substitution 5

M. Sarr ↓ · P. Neto ↑

Substitution 4

⇄

88'

J. Acheampong ↓ · R. James ↑

Substitution 5

⇄

89'

Robert Sánchez

Yellow Card

▮

90'

⚽

Z. Flemming

Assist · J. Ward-Prowse · 1–1

Jorrel Hato

Yellow Card

▮

90+4'

Full-time · 1 – 1

Match recap

Chelsea and Burnley drew 1–1. At half-time it was 1–0.

In possession, the hosts ran the game with 67% of the ball. For accuracy, the hosts completed 88% of their passes. On the balance of chances, the hosts held the expected-goals edge, 1.88 to 0.78. From set pieces, the hosts won the corner count, 9 to 5. For discipline, the referee produced 6 yellow cards.

On the scoresheet: Joao Pedro (4'), Z. Flemming (90'). Wesley Fofana was sent off in the 72' minute.

Model audit for this match: of 17 graded markets, 8 landed and 9 missed, for a net +4.99 units (Brier 0.253).

⚖ Bet recap · markets settled

17 · 8 W · 9 L

Market	Odds	Closed	AI	Result	P/L · 1u
Under 3.5	1.77	—	62%	Cashed	+0.77	Cashed
Under 2.5	2.78	—	41%	Cashed	+1.78	Cashed
BTTS No	1.85	—	54%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
BTTS Yes	2.05	—	46%	Cashed	+1.05	Cashed
Over 3.5	2.22	—	38%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Under 1.5	6.10	—	19%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Draw	7.50	—	15%	Cashed	+6.50	Cashed
Double Chance 1X	1.06	—	95%	Cashed	+0.06	Cashed
Home Win	1.24	—	80%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Over 2.5	1.47	—	59%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
AH Home 0	1.05	—	80%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Under 0.5	22.00	—	5%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Over 0.5	1.03	—	95%	Cashed	+0.03	Cashed
Over 1.5	1.15	—	81%	Cashed	+0.15	Cashed
Double Chance X2	4.65	—	20%	Cashed	+3.65	Cashed
Away Win	14.20	—	5%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
AH Away 0	10.50	—	5%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Total · 17 markets @ 1u each	—	—	—	8 W · 9 L	+4.99u	+29% ROI