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Home › Portugal › Primeira Liga › Rio Ave — Santa Clara

Rio Ave vs Santa Clara 1:1: Match Review & Stats

Portugal   /   Primeira Liga Value pick inside
Rio Ave
Rio Ave
Home · last 5 D L D L D
Kick-off
Sun 30 Nov · 15:30
1:1
Full-time
Santa Clara
Santa Clara
D W D W L Away · last 5
Estádio dos Arcos · Condi Town Referee Marcio Torres, Portugal
Miss
BTTS No
BTTS No
AI 56% · book 1.80 ✗
Hit
Under 2.5
Under 2.5
AI 62% · book 1.61 ✓
Miss
Under 1.5
Under 1.5
AI 36% · book 2.71 ✗
Total goals
2
1 · 1
xG (open play)
1.76 – 1.11
Δ +0.65
Possession
58% – 42%
AI accuracy
8 / 17
picks cashed

Model verdict

Post-match · 90 sec read

AI picks Double Chance 1X at 1.57 — +8.3% better than the market.

Rio Ave holds a clear quality edge over Santa Clara, especially in defense, which could stifle the visitors' attack. The home side's recent form shows some resilience, while Santa Clara struggles for consistency. Expect a tactical battle with Rio Ave leveraging their home momentum and compact defensive block.

  • Home defensive solidity vs away offensive struggles
  • Rio Ave's better recent form and home edge
  • Moderate pace suggested by odds, favoring structured play

P Recap generated by AI · 6 markets graded
Pick of the night · settled · Double Chance 1X
Double Chance 1X @ 1.57 ✓ Cashed
AI 69% Implied 64% +0.57u
+57%
ROI on stake

Lineups

RIO 3-4-3 · SAN 3-4-3
Subs used · RIO
71' Spikic ↑ · Pohlmann ↓
80' Papakanellos ↑ · Ntoi ↓
80' Liavas ↑ · Athanasiou ↓
89' Gual ↑ · Luiz ↓
Subs used · SAN
76' MT ↑ · Victor ↓
80' Luquinhas ↑ · Brenner ↓
89' Calila ↑ · Serginho ↓
89' Costa ↑ · Wendell ↓
89' Tavares ↑ · Firmino ↓

Statistics

RIO 1 – 1 SAN
58%
Possession (%)
42%
1.76
Expected Goals (xG) expected goals
1.11
9
Total Shots
9
4
Shots on Target
3
5
Shots off Target
4
9
Shots Inside Box
4
1
Corner Kicks
5
1
Offsides
4
10
Fouls
15
84%
Pass Accuracy (%)
80%
2
Yellow Cards
3
2
Goalkeeper Saves
3

Match events

16 · 1 – 1
19'
▮
Serginho
Yellow Card
23'
▮
Paulo Victor
Yellow Card
Clayton
Assist · O. Pohlmann · 1–0
⚽
24'
38'
⚽
Serginho (P)
Penalty · 1–1
Half-time · 1 – 1
Andreas Ndoj
Yellow Card
▮
69'
D. Spikic ↓ · O. Pohlmann ↑
Substitution 1
⇄
71'
72'
▮
Brenner
Yellow Card
76'
⇄
MT ↓ · Paulo Victor ↑
Substitution 1
A. Papakanellos ↓ · A. Ntoi ↑
Substitution 2
⇄
80'
G. Liavas ↓ · N. Athanasiou ↑
Substitution 3
⇄
80'
80'
⇄
Luquinhas ↓ · Brenner ↑
Substitution 2
M. Gual ↓ · Andre Luiz ↑
Substitution 4
⇄
89'
89'
⇄
Diogo Calila ↓ · Serginho ↑
Substitution 3
89'
⇄
J. Costa ↓ · Wendell ↑
Substitution 4
89'
⇄
J. Tavares ↓ · Adriano Firmino ↑
Substitution 5
Francisco Petrasso
Yellow Card
▮
90+3'
Full-time · 1 – 1

Match recap

Rio Ave and Santa Clara drew 1–1. At half-time it was 1–1.

In possession, the hosts ran the game with 58% of the ball. On the balance of chances, the hosts held the expected-goals edge, 1.76 to 1.11. From set pieces, the visitors won the corner count, 5 to 1. For discipline, the referee produced 5 yellow cards.

On the scoresheet: Clayton (24'), Serginho (38').

Model audit for this match: of 17 graded markets, 8 landed and 9 missed, for a net -3.33 units (Brier 0.151).

Bet recap · markets settled

17 · 8 W · 9 L
Market Odds Closed AI Result P/L · 1u
BTTS No 1.80 — 56% Lost −1.00 Miss
Under 2.5 1.61 — 62% Cashed +0.61 Cashed
Under 1.5 2.71 — 36% Lost −1.00 Miss
Over 2.5 2.47 — 38% Lost −1.00 Miss
BTTS Yes 2.08 — 44% Cashed +1.08 Cashed
AH Home 0 2.14 — 41% Lost −1.00 Miss
Away Win 2.55 — 31% Lost −1.00 Miss
AH Away 0 1.79 — 31% Lost −1.00 Miss
Double Chance 1X 1.57 — 69% Cashed +0.57 Cashed
Home Win 3.10 — 41% Lost −1.00 Miss
Double Chance X2 1.42 — 59% Cashed +0.42 Cashed
Over 1.5 1.50 — 64% Cashed +0.50 Cashed
Draw 3.18 — 28% Cashed +2.18 Cashed
Over 0.5 1.11 — 88% Cashed +0.11 Cashed
Under 3.5 1.20 — 81% Cashed +0.20 Cashed
Under 0.5 8.00 — 12% Lost −1.00 Miss
Over 3.5 4.79 — 19% Lost −1.00 Miss
Total · 17 markets @ 1u each — — — 8 W · 9 L −3.33u −20% ROI
Value pick of the night · Double Chance 1X
RIO – SAN @ 1.57
+8.3%
Edge
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