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Home › Portugal › Primeira Liga › Arouca — Moreirense

Predictions by Market: Arouca vs Moreirense

Portugal   /   Primeira Liga Value pick inside
Arouca
Arouca
Home · last 5 W L D W W
Kick-off
Sun 02 Nov · 18:00
0:2
Full-time
Moreirense
Moreirense
W L W L D Away · last 5
Estádio Municipal de Arouca · Aruca Referee Pedro Ramalho, Portugal

Outcome probabilities

Home Win · ARO
29%
Best 2.54
Draw
27%
Best 3.17
Away Win · MOR
44%
Best 2.85
Value pick
Under 1.5
@ 3.25
Fair odds
2.90
book 3.25 · +12.0% vs market
Bookmakers polled
3
distinct bookmakers
Pick confidence
Medium
p 34% · EV +12.0%

Value pick isn't the most likely outcome — Over 1.5 is more likely (66%), but Under 1.5 is priced above the model's fair odds.

Match predictions

Simple model predictions for the main markets. Advanced model details are available below.

Most likely outcomes show what the model expects to happen. A betting pick also considers bookmaker prices, so it can differ from the most likely outcome.

Estimated probability — model's view. Implied probability — back-solved from the best book price. Bet quality: High Medium Low
FT Results 3 markets
✓ Home Win
Probability 29.1%
Odds 2.67
Show model details
Implied probability 37.5%
Bet quality Low
✓ Away Win Best in group
Probability 43.6%
Odds 2.81
Show model details
Implied probability 35.6%
Bet quality Medium
✓ Draw
Probability 27.3%
Odds 3.32
Show model details
Implied probability 30.1%
Bet quality Low
Totals 8 markets
✓ Under 2.5
Probability 60.9%
Odds 1.75
Show model details
Implied probability 57.1%
Bet quality Medium
✓ Over 2.5
Probability 39.1%
Odds 2.19
Show model details
Implied probability 45.7%
Bet quality Low
✓ Under 1.5
Probability 34.5%
Odds 3.25
Show model details
Implied probability 30.8%
Bet quality Medium
✓ Under 0.5
Probability 11.6%
Odds 9.00
Show model details
Implied probability 11.1%
Bet quality Low
✓ Under 3.5
Probability 79.9%
Odds 1.28
Show model details
Implied probability 78.1%
Bet quality Low
✓ Over 0.5 Best in group
Probability 88.4%
Odds 1.08
Show model details
Implied probability 92.6%
Bet quality Low
✓ Over 1.5
Probability 65.5%
Odds 1.39
Show model details
Implied probability 71.9%
Bet quality Low
✓ Over 3.5
Probability 20.1%
Odds 3.86
Show model details
Implied probability 25.9%
Bet quality Low
BTTS 2 markets
✓ BTTS No Value pick
Probability 55.7%
Odds 1.96
Show model details
Implied probability 51%
Bet quality High
✓ BTTS Yes
Probability 44.3%
Odds 1.93
Show model details
Implied probability 51.8%
Bet quality Low
Asian Handicap 2 markets
✓ AH Away 0 Best in group
Probability 43.6%
Odds 2.01
Show model details
Implied probability 49.8%
Bet quality Low
✓ AH Home 0
Probability 29.1%
Odds 1.93
Show model details
Implied probability 51.8%
Bet quality Low
Other Markets 2 markets
✓ Double Chance X2 Top pick
Probability 71%
Odds 1.52
Show model details
Implied probability 65.8%
Bet quality High
✓ Double Chance 1X
Probability 56.4%
Odds 1.47
Show model details
Implied probability 68%
Bet quality Low

Predictions are model estimates based on data, not guaranteed outcomes. 18+ — please play responsibly.

Value pick of the night · Under 1.5
ARO – MOR @ 3.25
+12.0%
Edge
Forecast →