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Home › Portugal › Primeira Liga › Rio Ave — Tondela

Rio Ave vs Tondela 3:0: Match Review & Stats

Portugal   /   Primeira Liga Value pick inside
Rio Ave
Rio Ave
Home · last 5 D L D L D
Kick-off
Sun 05 Oct · 16:30
3:0
Full-time
Tondela
Tondela
L D W W L Away · last 5
Estádio dos Arcos · Condi Town Referee Antonio Nobre, Portugal
Hit
Over 2.5
Over 2.5
AI 53% · book 1.98 ✓
Hit
Over 1.5
Over 1.5
AI 78% · book 1.31 ✓
Miss
Over 3.5
Over 3.5
AI 31% · book 3.40 ✗
Total goals
3
3 · 0
xG (open play)
2.27 – 0.69
Δ +1.58
Possession
48% – 52%
AI accuracy
3 / 7
picks cashed

Model verdict

Post-match · 90 sec read

AI picks Over 3.5 at 3.40 — +5.4% better than the market.

Rio Ave vs Tondela — betting preview

Rio Ave have the stronger home platform and should edge territory, but Tondela’s transitions keep this competitive. Defensive reliability is shaky on both sides, so the game leans toward goals unless the first half stays cagey.

Prices slightly underrate the higher-score corridor. With home advantage and chance volume on Rio Ave’s side, the hosts are marginally preferred, though Tondela remain live on counters.

P Recap generated by AI · 6 markets graded
Pick of the night · settled · Over 3.5
Over 3.5 @ 3.40 ✗ Lost
AI 31% Implied 29% −1.00u
−100%
ROI on stake

Lineups

RIO 3-4-3 · TON 4-2-3-1
RIO · 3-4-3 4-2-3-1 · TON 1 Miszta 23 Petrasso 32 Brabec 4 Panzo 17 Vrousai 5 Ndoj 10 Aguilera 3 Athanasiou 11 Luiz ⚽ 9 Clayton ⚽ 18 Špikić ⚽ 31 Fontes 2 Bebeto 4 Marques 20 Medina 48 Manso 32 Rodríguez 15 Sithole 7 Henryque 16 Lopes 17 Cavaleiro 29 Siebatcheu
Subs used · RIO
46' Pohlmann ↑ · Spikic ↓
61' Liavas ↑ · Aguilera Zamora ↓
79' da Silva Moreira ↑ · Vrousai ↓
79' Nikitscher ↑ · Petrasso ↓
87' Graca ↑ · Luiz ↓
Subs used · TON
46' Vita ↑ · Rodriguez ↓
46' Felix ↑ · Manso ↓
56' Rodriguez ↑ · Lopes ↓
74' Yarlen ↑ · Bebeto ↓
74' Ouattara ↑ · Cavaleiro ↓

Statistics

RIO 3 – 0 TON
48%
Possession (%)
52%
2.27
Expected Goals (xG) expected goals
0.69
13
Total Shots
13
7
Shots on Target
3
2
Shots off Target
7
8
Shots Inside Box
8
6
Corner Kicks
7
0
Offsides
3
15
Fouls
15
83%
Pass Accuracy (%)
83%
7
Yellow Cards
4
3
Goalkeeper Saves
4

Match events

26 · 3 – 0
Clayton
Yellow Card
▮
11'
D. Spikic
1–0
⚽
25'
Andre Luiz
2–0
⚽
42'
Brandon Aguilera
Yellow Card
▮
45+1'
Half-time · 2 – 0
O. Pohlmann ↓ · D. Spikic ↑
Substitution 1
⇄
46'
46'
⇄
R. Vita ↓ · J. Rodriguez ↑
Substitution 1
46'
⇄
H. Felix ↓ · T. Manso ↑
Substitution 2
56'
⇄
Y. Rodriguez ↓ · Rony Lopes ↑
Substitution 3
G. Liavas ↓ · B. Aguilera Zamora ↑
Substitution 2
⇄
61'
Francisco Petrasso
Yellow Card
▮
68'
69'
▮
Bebeto
Yellow Card
Clayton
Assist · Andre Luiz · 3–0
⚽
73'
74'
⇄
Yarlen ↓ · Bebeto ↑
Substitution 4
74'
⇄
M. Ouattara ↓ · I. Cavaleiro ↑
Substitution 5
76'
▮
Rémy Vita
Yellow Card
Jonathan Panzo
Yellow Card
▮
78'
E. da Silva Moreira ↓ · M. Vrousai ↑
Substitution 3
⇄
79'
T. Nikitscher ↓ · F. Petrasso ↑
Substitution 4
⇄
79'
Andreas Ndoj
Yellow Card
▮
84'
86'
▮
Brayan Medina
Yellow Card
J. Graca ↓ · Andre Luiz ↑
Substitution 5
⇄
87'
Clayton
Yellow Card
▮
89'
Clayton
Red Card
▮
89'
90+2'
▮
Brayan Medina
Yellow Card
90+2'
▮
Brayan Medina
Red Card
Tamás Nikitscher
Yellow Card
▮
90+4'
Full-time · 3 – 0

Match recap

Rio Ave beat Tondela 3–0 at home. At half-time it was 2–0.

On the balance of chances, the hosts held the expected-goals edge, 2.27 to 0.69. For discipline, the referee produced 11 yellow cards.

On the scoresheet: D. Spikic (25'), Andre Luiz (42'), Clayton (73'). Clayton was sent off in the 89' minute. Brayan Medina was sent off in the 90+2' minute.

Model audit for this match: of 7 graded markets, 3 landed and 4 missed, for a net -1.30 units (Brier 0.170).

Bet recap · markets settled

7 · 3 W · 4 L
Market Odds Closed AI Result P/L · 1u
Over 2.5 1.98 — 53% Cashed +0.98 Cashed
Over 1.5 1.31 — 78% Cashed +0.31 Cashed
Over 3.5 3.40 — 31% Lost −1.00 Miss
Home Win 2.41 — 43% Cashed +1.41 Cashed
BTTS Yes 1.75 — 58% Lost −1.00 Miss
Draw 3.50 — 27% Lost −1.00 Miss
Away Win 3.00 — 30% Lost −1.00 Miss
Total · 7 markets @ 1u each — — — 3 W · 4 L −1.30u −19% ROI
Value pick of the night · Over 3.5
RIO – TON @ 3.40
+5.4%
Edge
Forecast →