Match Liverpool vs Qarabag January 28, 2026 — Result and Stats on Prognosist

Post-match · 90 sec read

AI picks Under 3.5 at 1.98 — +15.0% better than the market.

Liverpool should control this game at Anfield with sustained pressure, better ball progression and far more reliable chance creation. Qarabag’s best spell is likely to come in short transition moments, but over 90 minutes it’s hard to see them matching the hosts’ tempo and territory. With Liverpool expected to play most of the match in the away half, the main question is not the winner but how long Qarabag can keep the scoreline tight. A disciplined away block can keep this below a goal-fest, yet Liverpool still look well placed to win comfortably.

P Recap generated by AI · 6 markets graded

Pick of the night · settled · Under 3.5

Under 3.5 @ 1.98 ✗ Lost

AI 58% Implied 51% −1.00u

−100%

ROI on stake

⛀ Lineups

LIV 4-2-3-1 · KAR 4-2-3-1

LIV · 4-2-3-1 4-2-3-1 · KAR

22 Ekitiké

📊 Statistics

LIV 6 – 0 KAR

56%

Possession (%)

44%

5.60

Expected Goals (xG) expected goals

0.22

Total Shots

Shots on Target

Shots off Target

Shots Inside Box

Corner Kicks

Offsides

Fouls

89%

Pass Accuracy (%)

83%

Yellow Cards

Goalkeeper Saves

Match recap

Liverpool beat Qarabag 6–0 at home. At half-time it was 2–0.

In possession, the hosts ran the game with 56% of the ball. On the balance of chances, the hosts held the expected-goals edge, 5.60 to 0.22. In attack, the hosts carried the greater threat — 38 shots to 5, 12 on target. From set pieces, the hosts won the corner count, 14 to 1. At the back, the visitors leaned on their goalkeeper for 6 saves.

Model audit for this match: of 13 graded markets, 8 landed and 5 missed, for a net -2.53 units (Brier 0.105).

⚖ Bet recap · markets settled

13 · 8 W · 5 L

Market	Odds	Closed	AI	Result	P/L · 1u
Under 3.5	1.98	—	58%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Under 2.5	3.45	—	33%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Draw	10.00	—	11%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Over 0.5	1.02	—	97%	Cashed	+0.02	Cashed
AH Home 0	1.02	—	83%	Cashed	+0.02	Cashed
Double Chance 1X	1.03	—	93%	Cashed	+0.03	Cashed
Home Win	1.17	—	85%	Cashed	+0.17	Cashed
Over 1.5	1.12	—	88%	Cashed	+0.12	Cashed
BTTS No	1.73	—	56%	Cashed	+0.73	Cashed
Over 2.5	1.38	—	67%	Cashed	+0.38	Cashed
Over 3.5	2.00	—	42%	Cashed	+1.00	Cashed
BTTS Yes	2.30	—	44%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Away Win	25.00	—	4%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Total · 13 markets @ 1u each	—	—	—	8 W · 5 L	−2.53u	−19% ROI