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Home › World › UEFA Champions League › Ajax — Benfica

Predictions by Market: Ajax vs Benfica

Europe   /   UEFA Champions League Value pick inside
Ajax
Ajax
Home · last 5 L L W W L
Kick-off
Tue 25 Nov · 17:45
0:2
Full-time
Benfica
Benfica
W L W L L Away · last 5
Johan Cruijff Arena · Amsterdam Referee Sven Jablonski, Germany

Outcome probabilities

VALUE
Home Win · AJA
27%
Best 3.48
Draw
28%
Best 3.60
Away Win · BEN
45%
Best 2.09
Value pick
Home Win
@ 4.22
Fair odds
3.70
book 4.22 · +14.0% vs market
Bookmakers polled
4
distinct bookmakers
Pick confidence
Low
p 27% · EV +14.0%

Value pick isn't the most likely outcome — Away Win is more likely (45%), but Home Win is priced above the model's fair odds.

Match predictions

Simple model predictions for the main markets. Advanced model details are available below.

Most likely outcomes show what the model expects to happen. A betting pick also considers bookmaker prices, so it can differ from the most likely outcome.

Estimated probability — model's view. Implied probability — back-solved from the best book price. Bet quality: High Medium Low
FT Results 3 markets
✓ Home Win Value pick
Probability 27%
Odds 4.22
Show model details
Implied probability 23.7%
Bet quality Low
✓ Draw
Probability 28%
Odds 3.88
Show model details
Implied probability 25.8%
Bet quality Low
✓ Away Win Best in group
Probability 45%
Odds 1.92
Show model details
Implied probability 52.1%
Bet quality Medium
Totals 8 markets
✓ Under 1.5 Longshot value
Probability 24%
Odds 4.60
Show model details
Implied probability 21.7%
Bet quality Low
✓ Under 3.5
Probability 74%
Odds 1.47
Show model details
Implied probability 68%
Bet quality High
✓ Under 2.5
Probability 48%
Odds 2.20
Show model details
Implied probability 45.5%
Bet quality Medium
✓ Under 0.5
Probability 7%
Odds 15.00
Show model details
Implied probability 6.7%
Bet quality Low
✓ Over 0.5 Top pick
Probability 93%
Odds 1.05
Show model details
Implied probability 95.2%
Bet quality High
✓ Over 1.5
Probability 76%
Odds 1.24
Show model details
Implied probability 80.6%
Bet quality High
✓ Over 2.5
Probability 52%
Odds 1.78
Show model details
Implied probability 56.2%
Bet quality Medium
✓ Over 3.5
Probability 26%
Odds 2.80
Show model details
Implied probability 35.7%
Bet quality Low
BTTS 2 markets
✓ BTTS No
Probability 43%
Odds 2.32
Show model details
Implied probability 43.1%
Bet quality Medium
✓ BTTS Yes Top pick
Probability 57%
Odds 1.66
Show model details
Implied probability 60.2%
Bet quality Medium
Asian Handicap 2 markets
✓ AH Home -1
Probability 12%
Odds 7.30
Show model details
Implied probability 13.7%
Bet quality Low
✓ AH Home 0 Best in group
Probability 27%
Odds 3.15
Show model details
Implied probability 31.7%
Bet quality Low
Other Markets 2 markets
✓ Double Chance 1X
Probability 55%
Odds 2.00
Show model details
Implied probability 50%
Bet quality Medium
✓ Double Chance X2 Top pick
Probability 73%
Odds 1.27
Show model details
Implied probability 78.7%
Bet quality High

Predictions are model estimates based on data, not guaranteed outcomes. 18+ — please play responsibly.

Value pick of the night · Home Win
AJA – BEN @ 4.22
+14.0%
Edge
Forecast →