Match Atletico Madrid vs Union St. Gilloise November 4, 2025

Post-match · 90 sec read

Atleti at home should control territory and win most duels, but Union’s counter can sting if Simeone’s side get too passive. Expect a steady tempo with chances both ways; the safer angles are Atleti not to lose and goals above 2.0, while the long prices sit on Union protection lines.

P Recap generated by AI · 6 markets graded

⛀ Lineups

ATM 4-4-2 · GIL 3-5-1-1

ATM · 4-4-2 3-5-1-1 · GIL

19 Alvarez

📊 Statistics

ATM 3 – 1 GIL

67%

Possession (%)

33%

2.30

Expected Goals (xG) expected goals

1.11

Total Shots

Shots on Target

Shots off Target

Shots Inside Box

Corner Kicks

Offsides

Fouls

89%

Pass Accuracy (%)

80%

Yellow Cards

Goalkeeper Saves

⚖ Bet recap · markets settled

22 · 9 W · 13 L

Market	Odds	Closed	AI	Result	P/L · 1u
Over 2.5	1.48	—	62%	Cashed	+0.48	Cashed
Away Win	10.20	—	15%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Double Chance X2	4.09	—	29%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
AH Away +1	17.00	—	28%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
AH Away 0	5.95	—	19%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Draw	6.50	—	17%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Under 2.5	2.75	—	38%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Under 3.5	1.73	—	60%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
BTTS Yes	1.93	—	54%	Cashed	+0.93	Cashed
Home Win	1.32	—	68%	Cashed	+0.32	Cashed
Double Chance 1X	1.07	—	79%	Cashed	+0.07	Cashed
Over 3.5	2.28	—	40%	Cashed	+1.28	Cashed
BTTS No	1.91	—	46%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Over 1.5	1.14	—	85%	Cashed	+0.14	Cashed
AH Home 0	1.08	—	73%	Cashed	+0.08	Cashed
AH Home -1	1.37	—	48%	Cashed	+0.37	Cashed
Over 0.5	1.01	—	96%	Cashed	+0.01	Cashed
Under 1.5	5.50	—	11%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Under 0.5	21.00	—	4%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
AH Home -2	2.32	—	24%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
AH Away -1	3.21	—	13%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
AH Away -2	1.64	—	6%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Total · 22 markets @ 1u each	—	—	—	9 W · 13 L	−9.32u	−42% ROI

ℹ Match meta

Referee Espen Eskas, Norway

🛡 Model audit · this match

Methodology

Version gpt-5

Markets graded 22

Cashed / lost 9 / 13

Brier · this match 0.104

P/L on slate −9.32u

ROI · season −7%

Season tally −156.6u (2261)