Atletico Madrid beat Union St. Gilloise 3–1 at home. At half-time it was 1–0.
In possession, the hosts ran the game with 67% of the ball. For accuracy, the hosts completed 89% of their passes. On the balance of chances, the hosts held the expected-goals edge, 2.30 to 1.11. In attack, the hosts carried the greater threat — 14 shots to 8, 6 on target. From set pieces, the hosts won the corner count, 9 to 1. For discipline, the referee produced 4 yellow cards.
Model audit for this match: of 22 graded markets, 9 landed and 13 missed, for a net -9.32 units (Brier 0.104).
| Market | Odds | Closed | AI | Result | P/L · 1u | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 | 1.48 | — | 62% | Cashed | +0.48 | Cashed |
| Away Win | 10.20 | — | 15% | Lost | −1.00 | Miss |
| Double Chance X2 | 4.09 | — | 29% | Lost | −1.00 | Miss |
| AH Away +1 | 17.00 | — | 28% | Lost | −1.00 | Miss |
| AH Away 0 | 5.95 | — | 19% | Lost | −1.00 | Miss |
| Draw | 6.50 | — | 17% | Lost | −1.00 | Miss |
| Under 2.5 | 2.75 | — | 38% | Lost | −1.00 | Miss |
| Under 3.5 | 1.73 | — | 60% | Lost | −1.00 | Miss |
| BTTS Yes | 1.93 | — | 54% | Cashed | +0.93 | Cashed |
| Home Win | 1.32 | — | 68% | Cashed | +0.32 | Cashed |
| Double Chance 1X | 1.07 | — | 79% | Cashed | +0.07 | Cashed |
| Over 3.5 | 2.28 | — | 40% | Cashed | +1.28 | Cashed |
| BTTS No | 1.91 | — | 46% | Lost | −1.00 | Miss |
| Over 1.5 | 1.14 | — | 85% | Cashed | +0.14 | Cashed |
| AH Home 0 | 1.08 | — | 73% | Cashed | +0.08 | Cashed |
| AH Home -1 | 1.37 | — | 48% | Cashed | +0.37 | Cashed |
| Over 0.5 | 1.01 | — | 96% | Cashed | +0.01 | Cashed |
| Under 1.5 | 5.50 | — | 11% | Lost | −1.00 | Miss |
| Under 0.5 | 21.00 | — | 4% | Lost | −1.00 | Miss |
| AH Home -2 | 2.32 | — | 24% | Lost | −1.00 | Miss |
| AH Away -1 | 3.21 | — | 13% | Lost | −1.00 | Miss |
| AH Away -2 | 1.64 | — | 6% | Lost | −1.00 | Miss |
| Total · 22 markets @ 1u each | — | — | — | 9 W · 13 L | −9.32u | −42% ROI |
