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Villarreal vs Juventus 2:2: Match Review & Stats

Europe   /   UEFA Champions League Value pick inside
Villarreal
Villarreal
Home · last 5 L L L L L
Kick-off
Wed 01 Oct · 19:00
2:2
Full-time
Juventus
Juventus
W W D L W Away · last 5
Estadio de la Cerámica · Villarreal Referee Istvan Kovacs, Romania
Miss
Home Win
Home Win
AI 48% · book 2.35 ✗
Miss
AH Home 0
AH Home 0
AI 62% · book 1.81 ✗
Miss
AH Home -0.5
AH Home -0.5
AI 48% · book 2.31 ✗
Total goals
4
2 · 2
xG (open play)
1.67 – 1.55
Δ +0.12
Possession
44% – 56%
AI accuracy
0 / 5
picks cashed

Model verdict

Post-match · 90 sec read

AI picks Home Win at 2.35 — +12.0% better than the market.

Villarreal and Juventus are closely matched with a slight edge to Villarreal at home. Villarreal's recent home form is strong, while Juventus has been steady away. Expect a competitive game with goals likely from both sides. The home team has a moderate advantage, but Juventus can challenge for a draw or win. Goals should be over 2.5 with both teams scoring.
P Recap generated by AI · 6 markets graded
Pick of the night · settled · Home Win
Home Win @ 2.35 ✗ Lost
AI 48% Implied 43% −1.00u
−100%
ROI on stake

Lineups

VIL 4-3-3 · JUV 3-4-2-1
Subs used · VIL
64' Oluwaseyi ↑ · Parejo ↓
64' Moleiro ↑ · Buchanan ↓
76' Akhomach ↑ · Mikautadze ↓
76' Cardona ↑ · Pedraza ↓
Subs used · JUV
16' Mário ↑ · Cabal ↓
46' Conceição ↑ · Koopmeiners ↓
79' Rugani ↑ · Cambiaso ↓
80' Adžić ↑ · Yıldız ↓
86' Vlahović ↑ · David ↓

Statistics

VIL 2 – 2 JUV
44%
Possession (%)
56%
1.67
Expected Goals (xG) expected goals
1.55
17
Total Shots
13
6
Shots on Target
4
6
Shots off Target
5
11
Shots Inside Box
10
4
Corner Kicks
3
1
Offsides
1
7
Fouls
18
80%
Pass Accuracy (%)
85%
1
Yellow Cards
3
2
Goalkeeper Saves
4

Match events

17 · 2 – 2
6'
▮
Juan Cabal
Yellow Card
16'
⇄
João Mário ↓ · Juan Cabal ↑
Substitution 1
Georges Mikautadze
Assist · Nicolas Pépé · 1–0
⚽
18'
Half-time · 1 – 0
46'
⇄
Francisco Conceição ↓ · Teun Koopmeiners ↑
Substitution 2
49'
⚽
Federico Gatti
Assist · Lloyd Kelly · 1–1
56'
⚽
Francisco Conceição
1–2
Tani Oluwaseyi ↓ · Dani Parejo ↑
Substitution 1
⇄
64'
Alberto Moleiro ↓ · Tajon Buchanan ↑
Substitution 2
⇄
64'
Ilias Akhomach ↓ · Georges Mikautadze ↑
Substitution 3
⇄
76'
Sergi Cardona ↓ · Alfonso Pedraza ↑
Substitution 4
⇄
76'
77'
▮
Andrea Cambiaso
Yellow Card
79'
⇄
Daniele Rugani ↓ · Andrea Cambiaso ↑
Substitution 3
80'
⇄
Vasilije Adžić ↓ · Kenan Yıldız ↑
Substitution 4
Ilias Akhomach
Yellow Card
▮
85'
86'
⇄
Dušan Vlahović ↓ · Jonathan David ↑
Substitution 5
Renato Veiga
Assist · Ilias Akhomach · 2–2
⚽
90'
90+6'
▮
Francisco Conceição
Yellow Card
Full-time · 2 – 2

Match recap

Villarreal and Juventus drew 2–2. At half-time it was 1–0.

In possession, the visitors ran the game with 56% of the ball. In attack, the hosts carried the greater threat — 17 shots to 13, 6 on target. At the back, the visitors leaned on their goalkeeper for 4 saves. For discipline, the referee produced 4 yellow cards.

On the scoresheet: Georges Mikautadze (18'), Federico Gatti (49'), Francisco Conceição (56'), Renato Veiga (90').

Model audit for this match: of 5 graded markets, 0 landed and 5 missed, for a net -5.00 units (Brier 0.257).

Bet recap · markets settled

5 · 0 W · 5 L
Market Odds Closed AI Result P/L · 1u
Home Win 2.35 — 48% Lost −1.00 Miss
AH Home 0 1.81 — 62% Lost −1.00 Miss
AH Home -0.5 2.31 — 48% Lost −1.00 Miss
Under 2.5 1.89 — 57% Lost −1.00 Miss
Away Team Total Under 0.5 3.00 — 36% Lost −1.00 Miss
Total · 5 markets @ 1u each — — — 0 W · 5 L −5.00u −100% ROI
Value pick of the night · Home Win
VIL – JUV @ 2.35
+12.0%
Edge
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